Mise à jour:
3:49 PM 20/01/2006

La prévision a changé
2:11 PM 23/12/2005
Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com

Ahuntsic
2006 - élection générale (Canada)



Profil de circonscription

candidats:
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Libearl/libéral
Eleni Bakopanos
NDP/NPD
Caroline Desrosiers
Conservative/conservateur
Étienne Morin
Bloc Québécois
Maria Mourani
Green/Vert
Lynette Tremblay

Député:
L'Hon. Eleni Bakopanos

2004 Résultats:
Eleni Bakopanos
21234
Maria Mourani
20020
Annick Bergeron
3013
Jean E. Fortier
2544
Lynette Tremblay
1301
F.X. De Longchamp
314
Marsha Fine
102

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision




Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage

18 01 06 DTC
I don't know a thing about the demographics of this riding or anything detailed. My analysis is that there are way too many Bloc calls while their support is on the skids. Steve Paikin burst their bubble. Bloc voters are looking for a home and the Conservatives and possibly the NDP will benefit from this apparent collapse. The Liberals and the Bloc were supporting each other. The Liberal Party is in serious flux and the Bloc can't adjust their targeting. Bloc support, as I understand it, is based on block voting...strategic voting. The problem with strategic voting is that you never vote for something. The Conservatives have traction; the Liberals are badly wounded; the NDP is gaining strength. Bloc voters also have a strong union appeal, which may make the NDP more appealing, depending on their candidates.
13 01 06 expat
While the ethnic vote in Montreal is holding for the Liberals, and the Bloc appears to have reached a plateau in their support, the results in this riding last time were so close that the Liberals have no margin for error left. The Conservative total will rise somewhat, the real change in their fortunes in Quebec are in more rural, off-island ridings, not here in Montreal. But even a modest switch from the Liberals to the Conservatives will help the BQ. And I strongly suspect that it will be hard to energize the Liberal base for a strong turnout in the face of a horrible national campaign and the clear message that they are losing nationally. All these factors taken together make up for a not totally spectacular Bloc candidate or campaign, and will see this seat flip - by only a modest margin.
12 01 06 Bear and Ape
To argue a few points:
1) Weather may keep some away and true this favours the BQ, since BQ supporters are more likely to come out, but the question begs, "Does this survey cover all Quebecers of all demographics or in a specific region/specific group of voters?" Reason this is important is that if it's all of Quebec (which is likely) it preculdes an anomoly in Montreal, that non-French voters in ridings like this will crawl to the voting booths to prevent the seperatists from getting more seats. Fear is a very powerful motivator. Also on the topic of weather, it may be a moot point. For all we know at this time, it could be a beautiful mild sunny day.
2) Old Italians and Greeks are less likely to stay home because older people are more likely to vote than younger people, Italians and Greeks are hard core Liberal voters (see above) and you can be sure that Liberal volunteers will be certain to drive people to the polls (especially in ridings like this).
3) Younger immigrants may fear seperation less, but they are still far more likely to be Federalists. Plus young people are less likely to vote than older people (see above). As for going from 9 to 1 against seperation to 4 to 1 against seperation, it took 30 years for that. It's not going to go to 2 to 1 in less than 4 years.
As for the bold prediction about saying goodbye to Quebec in 2010, we all know that a month in politics is an eternity, let alone 4 years. Look back less than 4 years and we see both Paul Martin and Jean Charest as being very popular and the seperatists on the ropes. Lets keep the predictions to the upcoming election, let alone to hypothetical ones in the distant future.
11 01 05 love, sydney
It's an interesting theory, but the Greens really won't be a factor in more than a handful of ridings ACROSS Canada -- mostly in Vancouver and the Island, not here in beautiful Ahuntsic. That doesn't mean there won't be enuf splitting to decide this race. Latest polls show Tories creeping above the Grits in popularity, while the Bloc has seen its momentum stalled and is now working feverishly to prevent slippage to the Blue Men Group. In a riding like Ahuntsic, where the strong immigrant community will remain fairly loyal to their Greek member of parliament, my sense is that the Tory candidate will dent the Bloc push, giving the Grit a squeaker. Only the second place finisher will be Green with envy...
10 01 05 LJ Amundsen
First, and hardest to predict the "old Italians and Greeks" may stay home due to the weather. January 23 is not a day to bet for good weather on - the Bloc being leftish and younger, you can expect the Bloc, NDP, Greens to pick up more votes this time on weather alone.
It's almost ridiculous to look at 2004 Liberal vote of 21234 vs. Bloc vote of 20020 and claim that some magic will prevent the Bloc winning in 2006. Younger immigrants are unafraid of separatism and are splitting 4 to 1 not 9 to 1 against it. If the separatists keep that up, it's 2 to 1 in the 2003 provincial election, and a big fat goodbye to Quebec in 2010 or so. The time has come to look very carefully at ridings the Bloc "can't" win.
Aside from these obvious Quebec-wide factors, look at one more wild card: Lynette Tremblay is the Deputy Leader of the Greens, not really touched by the serious scandals and compromises of the central party, running for the second time a serious campaign, and with a platform that is more leftish and has the party's support. She will take more Liberal votes and NDP votes than Bloc. If she broke 2000 taking Liberal votes away that's more than enough to hand this to the Bloc.
The Liberal could win regardless but only by actually parroting the Green platform and getting Green votes back. If they have the brains to do it, they'll win but not by much. But nothing prevents the Bloc from doing the same.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
First, and hardest to predict the "old Italians and Greeks" may stay home due to the weather. January 23 is not a day to bet for good weather on - the Bloc being leftish and younger, you can expect the Bloc, NDP, Greens to pick up more votes this time on weather alone.
It's almost ridiculous to look at 2004 Liberal vote of 21234 vs. Bloc vote of 20020 and claim that some magic will prevent the Bloc winning in 2006. Younger immigrants are unafraid of separatism and are splitting 4 to 1 not 9 to 1 against it. If the separatists keep that up, it's 2 to 1 in the 2003 provincial election, and a big fat goodbye to Quebec in 2010 or so. The time has come to look very carefully at ridings the Bloc "can't" win.
Aside from these obvious Quebec-wide factors, look at one more wild card: Lynette Tremblay is the Deputy Leader of the Greens, not really touched by the serious scandals and compromises of the central party, running for the second time a serious campaign, and with a platform that is more leftish and has the party's support. She will take more Liberal votes and NDP votes than Bloc. If she broke 2000 taking Liberal votes away that's more than enough to hand this to the Bloc.
The Liberal could win regardless but only by actually parroting the Green platform and getting Green votes back. If they have the brains to do it, they'll win but not by much. But nothing prevents the Bloc from doing the same.
07 01 06 Stéphane Gaudet
Je change ma prédiction au vu des derniers sondages. Victoire bloquiste à cause de l'effondrement du vote libéral au Québec et de la division du vote fédéraliste entre conservateurs et libéraux. Ce phénomène est plus fort en région que sur l'ile de Montréal, certes, mais il jouera quand même. Ça, plus les appuis de plusieurs Québécois issus de l'immigration envers Madame Mourani et le Bloc. Ahuntsic redeviendra bloquiste, comme en 1993, bien que les limites de la circonscription aient beaucoup changé depuis.
27 12 05 ari
Entre les élections, Mme Bakopanos est une députée sans couleur et sans saveur. Bonne députée!!? À chaque élection, son programme est simple faire peur à la population qui n'est pas francophone en nourrissant la crainte de la majorité (francophone) et faire de la figuration auprès des francopones. Voyer l'inauguration de son local. Les uniques francophones visibles parmi la cinquentaine de personnes présentes étaient Pierre Pettigrew et la sénatrice Lucie Pépin. Voilà pour l'anour des gens de son comté à son égard. (http://www.radio-canada.ca/actualite/v2/Telejournal_Montreal/niveau2_liste51_200512.shtml# ; sélectionner "la batille d'ahuntsic").
Mme Bakopanos va vaincre sans gloire juste à cause de sa composition ethnoculturelle.
26 12 05 Martin Lvoie
Ce sera tres serré dans Ahuntsic. Maria a de la chance si elle gagne mais ce n'est pas impossible. Elle est tres connu dans la communauté et joit de l'appui des arabophones.
03 01 06 Victor A.
I think Eleni will take it. Although virtually every website gives it to the Bloc, let's not forget that BQ support is very unlikely grow given the demographics and demolinguistics of this riding. In all the surveys done in Quebec there is always too large of a sample of Quebec Francophones de souche as opposed to allophones. The recent by-election in Outremont shows it as well, in fact I think the new MNA for Outremont won that byelection with a larger percentage of the vote than Lapierre in 2004. ( 9 % as opposed to Lapierre's 7,7 % and that despite overwhelming BQ effort in that riding. ) What applies to Outremont's Cote-des-Neiges area applies to Ahuntsic as well. It is quite multicultural and frankly I can't see Maria Mourani doing well in many parts of this riding, I'm especially thinking of the Place Henri Bourassa and the Acadie Blvd areas, the first being 1st generation immigrants and the second people of Italian and Greek descent.
I wonder how is Maria going to campaign there with her very limited English language skills. I used to live in this area and despite the PQ policies English is still more used than French when it comes to the communication among the residents of these specific areas. Maria is hardly a strong candidate, as I said she has very limited knowledge of English and has run before in the provincial and federal level. I wouldn't worry about her attracting too much of the Arabic/Muslim vote because in fact these groups are around 80 % federalist and Maria is actually a Christian. Anyways, I do think Eleni will win by a slightly larger margin this time, 2000 to 3000 votes.
17 12 05 Stéphane Gaudet
Normalement, j'aurais dit Bakopanos sans aucun doute. Mais Mourani peut gagner. Elle mène une bonne campagne et jouit de nombreux appuis de la part de certains citoyens issus de l'immigration. Beaucoup de membres de communautés arabophones sont avec elle. Rien n'est encore joué. Alors, trop tôt pour que je fasse une prédiction.
03 12 05 JFB
Il est vrai que Bakopanos (PLC) est une députée appréciée. Si elle maintient une bonne partie de son vote, ce sera grâce à sa personnalité. Ceci dit, Maria Mourani (BQ) parcourt le comté depuis 2 ans. Ele s'est fait connaître. Avec des sondages donnant 60% au Bloc et 20% aux Libéraux, et en tenant compte cette fois-ci d'un NPD quasi absent, le BQ l'emportera par une courte majorité. Oui, une partie du comté est allophone, mais une grande partie du comté est francophone, votant PQ autrefois dans Crémazie. Mourani pourra jouer sur les deux tableaux. Victoire BQ.
02 12 05 YLib
A lot of people in Ahunstic were embarrassed over the sponsorship scandal in 2004 even though Bakopanos had absolutely nothing to do with it. The greek, italian and lebanese community will stand behind Eleni during this election seeing that the confusion over the sponsorship scandal has been reduced and the threat of separatism is real.
01 12 05 SG
Réélection de Eleni Bakopanos, ce comté à toujours voter en faveur des Libéraux(sauf 1993 avec une majorité faible). Madame Bakopanos avait réussi à avoir des majorité éclatante de 10 500 voix lors des élections de 1997 et de 2000, en 2004 les fédéralistes de ce comté sont moins sorti prennant pour acquis quel serait réélu avec une majorité aussi éclatante que lors des élections antérieur.Donc les fédéralistes vont sortir en grand nombre voter pour Eleni Bakopanos!
14 11 05 Alex
Ce comté va sans aucun doute faire rélire Eleni Bakapanos , ce comté à toujours voter avec de forte majorité Libéral et en plus les comtés adjacents sont tous libéral.
05 10 05 Bear and Ape
As of now, it seems that Gomery has waned in the minds of the public and likely the Liberals will maintain what they have in Quebec, including Ahunsic. The Italian and Greek communities which held it for the liberals last time will likely do it again. The bleeding has stopped though we disagree with Liberty Canada, we do not think they will regain seats in Quebec (maybe Vaudreuil, St Lambert if lucky). Watch for the fireworks when the report comes out before we make any more predictions about Quebec.
18 09 05 Liberty Canada
As much as it pains me, I have to put this one back in the Liberal column. Adscam has died down, and All polling indicates the Liberals have regained much of the ground they lost over the past year. I would go so far as to say, that the Liberals will hold what they have curently, and retake some of what they lost on and around the Island of Montreal, to wit, Vaudreuil, Alfred Pellan and St Lambert.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
I earlier marked this down as a Bloc Quebecois prediction when the liberals were only at 15% in Quebec, but considering they are now close to 30%, I am moving it to too close to call, although with the election, coming on the heels of the Gomery Inquiry, the Bloc Quebecois will likely take this riding as the Gomery Inquiry will hurt the liberals more in Quebec than elsewhere.
18 05 05 Bear and Ape
We were very surprised how poorly Bakopanos did last year. We were certain the Italian and Greek community would support her, and supposedly they did (hence her win, albeit narrow). Mother's Day may be right, but we're hedging our bet that the Italian and Greek communities will not be strong enough to stop francophone voter's outrage.
11 05 05 Mother's Day
This is a Mother's Day prediction for the riding that my mom was born and live for most of her life.
She told me that it would not go to the Bloc... too many old Italians and Greeks that automatically vote Liberal. The demographics lend support to the Liberals in this high percentage immigrant riding. I may not believe fully believe her - but she may know better than all of us. So I'm predicting that Eleni squeaks it out somehow.
03 05 05 David Pagé
La faible majorité de 1200 votes de Mme Bakopanos ne pourra résister à la grogne qui existe en ce moment au Québec. N'oublions pas que ce comté à déjà été bloquiste lors de l'élection de 1993 et ce sans une partie du très francophone quartier de Ahuntsic. Un comté de plus pour le Bloc Québécois assurément. Les libéraux resteront chez eux ou voterons pour les Conservateurs ou les Néo-Démocrates pour garder l'esprit saint.
03 05 05 JB
Maria Mourani est adorée dans ce comté et depuis sa défaite en 2004, elle n'a cessé de sillonner le comté.
05 05 05 Initial
Je pense que le Bloc Québécois pourrait prendre cette circonscription, en allant chercher 4 % plus d'électeurs de son côté qu'à la dernière élection. De plus, les libéraux ne sont pas très populaires en ce moment, et ils n'avaient qu'une avance de 2 % aux dernières élections... je crois que l'abstention va diminuer le vote des libéraux dans ce comté.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Normally a liberal riding based on demographics, but with the liberals so hated in Quebec, most liberal voters will stay home and the Bloc Quebecois will therefore take this riding this time around. Eleni Bakapanos only won by 2% and with the liberals having fallen through their floor in Quebec, they will only hold some of the predominately Anglophone ridings on the west side and St. Leonard-St. Michel, but nothing else.
02 05 05 MM
If elections are to be held this spring, Ahuntsic may be prime territory to be conquered by the Bloc Quebecois.
In '04, the Liberal margin of victory was roughly around 1,000 votes. If we take into account the dramatic collapse of Grit support in the polls in Quebec (an average of around 22% in the province since Brault's testimony at the Gomery commission), it would mean, at the riding level, a shift of 3,000 votes minimum from liberals to the BQ. Such electoral shift may also put other Liberal ridings under the Bloc column like Beauce, Brome-Missisquoi, Brossard, Jeanne-LeBer, Outremont, Papineau, Gatineau, and Pontiac.
2005 is not going to be a good year for the federal Grits in Quebec.
26 04 05 Neal
Eleni Bakopanos is no longer safe. I would not write her off yet, but the Bloc keeps on edging closer. An even slight increase in Conservative vote at her expense, or disgusted Liberal voters staying home could hand this to the Bloc. I would tend to favour the latter scenario. I give this one cautiously, to the Bloc.



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