Update/Mise à jour:
10:42 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:17 PM 22/01/2006
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Saint John
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Terry Albright
Vern M. Garnett
John Wallace
Paul Zed

Paul Zed

2004 Result/Résultats:
Paul Zed
Bob McVicar
Terry Albright
Jonathan Cormier
Jim Wood
Tom Oland

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 Scarlett
With all due respect to Mr. Wallace and his adherents, his name recognition is not as great as they seem to think. Like a recent unsuccessful provincial candidate, his popularity is mainly in Rothesay. Also, in some other parts of the city where he may be gaining a reputation, like the West Side and the South End, his name will be associated with provincial and federal Conservative pronouncements and decisions that have been extremely unpopular, (LNG and "defeatist Atlantic Canadians", while no actual positive Conservative plans have been announced for Saint John despite Harper's recent visit. I really think Mr. Zed, on the other hand, has managed to shed some previous misperceptions about his character that were levied at him and to achieve consensus and team work here in the city. I think Zed has a good chance of winning.
13 01 06 npolitico
John Wallace's strong name recognition and positive profile, the Conservative history of this riding and the surge of Tory support nation-wide (and in NB according to an ATV poll tonight that gives the Tories a slight edge in the province) this wan can be called for the Conservatives relatively comfortably.
11 01 06 D.S
Paul Zed performed like no other in today's Students's Representative Council debate. He knew his students issues and really cares about students concerns. Mr. Zed showed why he is the MP for Saint John by easily showing John Wallace that he and his party know how to help students that are going to University and College. Mr. Zed will be going back to Ottawa on January 23rd.
11 01 06 Fodor
I just moved out of this riding. I predict Zed will win by a similar or even larger margin. This is a largely working class riding where many people will have little to gain from the CPC right wing fiscal agenda. Also, the provincial government is very unpopular here and Bernard Lord's campaigning for the CPC is more likely to hurt the Tory candidate than to help him in Saint John and certain other NB ridings.
16 12 05 IB
Anyone who thinks Zed is going to win needs to get back to reality. Last election he beat McVicor by around 3000 votes. McVicor has tried to get elected to just about every political job in an around the city and hasn't been received well. John Wallace is like by everyone and has done many good things for the community. He will easily win this election.
15 12 05 William Smith
With Elsie Wayne not standing for the Conservatives, Saint John will go Liberal without any doubt. Paul Zed is incumbent and respected, the riding is traditionally "red" (the Elsie Wayne exception notwithstanding), but the federal NDP have made very few inroads here. The Conservative Party's national policies are unpopular in Saint John and the Liberals are polling high in the Maritimes.
09 12 05 Alex
Liberal Zed will win this in a cakewalk. He's done more in 2 years than former Conservative MP Elise Wayne did in 10 - Saint Johners' like what he's doing - a divorce from the Irving clan this year make him a bit of a folk hero - all in all - he's a hard worker-and certainly seems to work well with the city hall types -and surrounding towns - Wallace on the PC side is a well known lawyer - worked hard on the waterfront project - but bailing out and quitting - over the issue of Long Wharf to be used as temporary site of lime for Colson Cove - seem to tag him with a quitter image to some.
08 12 05 Steve Kennedy
I do not live in this riding, but I do work in it. I can tell you that the party I hold so much faith in, the NDP, will not win. Why? Terry Albright is not starting to campaign until next year! WTF?! I really hope no one takes offence, but the NDP needs to clean up their act! They are not acting like a party that can govern! They say things like "we need more NDP MP's" and not things like "we need to form a government!" If the NDP keeps this attitude, we will never win.
06 12 05 M. Lunn
After seeing several polls showing the Liberals with an even larger lead in Atlantic Canada than in 2004, I am moving this to the Liberals. While the polls may change, I think the current gap is just too large to overcome. Besides the Provincial PCs were clobbered in a recent by-election here and considering Bernard Lord's strong support of the party, I don't think the results will be much different. If anything they would probably be worse as many Red Tories vote PC provincially while Liberal federally.
04 12 05 CF
This party will definitely go Liberal. Although it has loads of potential for the NDP the riding association there has nominated Terry Albright the previous elections candidate. She is well known but doesn't have a hope in hell.
This could go either way. Zed's been able to dole out a lot of patronage and his heart attack touch voters emotionally but Saint Johners are fickle. There may appear to be a liberal tide given their recent victory in SJ Harbour but Zed is personnally mistrusted by most for his past business deals, connections to the Irving Family and that he resides in the affluent suburb of Rothesay outside of the riding.
The Conservatives have a history in the riding to work from and they narrowly lost the last election. A small swing could turn the tide so it's anybody's race.
02 12 05 DWL
Paul Zed is going down - and he knows it. Saint John will never forget how the Federal Gov't left Point Lepreau in the lurch. That, together with the regional distaste from Adscam, will hand the seat to John Wallace, a well respected rising start from our region. Mr. Zed has also fallen out of favour with the Irving family, which is the region's largest employee. I know conventional wisdom may peg the race closer, I fully suspect to see this seat swing hard over.
27 11 05 Voter36752
Like many ridings in Canada, Saint John will have a choice between two rather conservative lawyers. Accordingly, this will not be about local issues but about who will best represent those local issues in Ottawa. The NDP could pick up Saint John even with a conservative lawyer, but not with someone nobody knows. Perhaps they should hire one themselves.
26 11 05 Mike D
The Saint John Harbour byelection probably says a lot about the state of the various parties in this city. The NBNDP is in pathetic shape after being stabbed in the back by its former provincial leader and getting an embarrassing result when they tried to hold her seat. Other than Godin, the NDP is down-and-out in this province. But Lord and the Conservatives have even more to cry about in the byelection results as a popular local candidate went down in flames trying to defend a tired provincial government. This will influence NB federal politics. If there are any Liberal incumbents who have little to worry about this election, you'll find them in New Brunswick. I'd say Zed will win over 50% of the vote.
22 05 05 SAB
John Wallace will handily defeat Paul Zed. In the last election, Zed won against a less popular candidate by about 3,000 votes at time when his party was less mired in controversy and corruption. Paul Zed has worked hard in Saint John; however, people just don't like him - there is a slickness about him that turns a good many people off. Slickness doesn't sell in a blue collar city like Saint John. Credibility, integrity and community service will push Wallace over the top - I have never heard a single person say a negative word about this man. In addition, John would be a possible cabinet hopeful should the Conservatives form the next government.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Had Elsie Wayne made a comeback, she probably would have won, since despite her rather right wing views on gay marriage, people seem to really like her in Saint John. But with Elsie Wayne out, this will probably stay liberal, although the Conservatives did better here than they did on average in Atlantic Canada and this riding over the past fifty years has only gone liberal three times: 1974, 1980, 2004, and never has a liberal been re-elected. The only good thing for the Conservatives is Elsie Wayne's views on abortion and gay marriage probably would have hurt the party in the urban ridings of Ontario where the Conservatives need to win more seats to form government.
04 05 05 Aric H
This riding was Conservative the whole time Elsie Wayne was its MP and she could have hung onto it last year if she hadn't retired. It went Liberal last year only after she departed. A couple weeks ago she considered coming back but has now said she will not be doing so. Therefore I predict the riding will remain Liberal as a result.
03 05 05 JC
Had Elsie Wayne run this would be a conservative seat, she didn't and thus Zed will retain his seat, Liberal Polling numbers have not faded in the atlantic.
03 05 05 Patrick Webber
Saint John will be a tough one to call, at least until the three main parties all select their candidates. If the NDP selects a really good candidate, they may just have a chance to pick this one up. How? There is a lot of anger locally over tax breaks given to the Irvings for a LNG plant in the city, and animosity towards the Irvings is at an all time high. Liberal incumbent Paul Zed is married into the Irving clan, and this association may hurt him. Add to that the fact that Saint John mayor Norm MacFarlane is a former NB Tory, and you have the perfect combination for Saint Johners to turn en masse towards the NDP. If out-going NB NDP leader Elizabeth Weir, or even former Saint John NB NDP candidates like Ralph Thomas or Walter Lee were to run for the federal party here, it could very well go orange on election night.
03 05 05 RWA
Elsie Wayne could have won this riding if she'd made a comeback. No other Conservative can.
26 04 05 Neal
I understand that Elsie Wayne has been asked to run, and may do just that. If she does, Paul Zed, for the second time will become a one-term MP.

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