Update/Mise à jour:
2:17 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:46 AM 22/01/2006
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Jean-Claude J.C. D'Amours
Irka Laplante
Rodolphe Martin
Jean-Pierre Ouellet

Jean-Claude D'Amours

2004 Result/Résultats:
Jean-Claude J.C. D'Amours
Rodolphe Martin
Benoit Violette
Jovette Cyr

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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19 01 06 P. Deshaies
This is one of the hardest ridings to predict in all of Canada. The Tories could take it, but they were third last time and the Liberals have not plummeted in NB as elsewhere. The NDP has a better chance, with relatively strong results in the Maritimes (and increasing). Layton was supposed to visit today but the weather required a tele-conference, which must indicate good internal polling. It would likely be the 5th seat for the NDP in the Maritimes depending on how well they do.
But the particular nature of the riding makes predictions difficult. Madawaska seems like an easterly extension of the Chaudiere-Appalaches (which has ADQ MNAs and could be swept by the Tories on Monday) while Restigouche is part of Acadie and tends to be influenced by the proximity of Yvon Godin (not to mention some NDP tradition in Restigouche itself). The Liberals could yet run a strong second in each part to win here. And although the NDP will not get more than a quarter of the vote in Madawaska (and Toies vice versa in Restigouche), stranger things have happened, and this riding IS more of a Quebec riding than a purely 'Maritime' riding, all while the Liberals ARE approaching single digits in non-Montreal Quebec...
17 01 06 Janey
I have to move to too close to call. People in this riding like to be with the winner - especially Francophone voters (more so in Madawasaka but Restigouche too) and the polls may - and I say this with exceptional cauition - influence voters.
I cannot see the Liberal come third but stranger endings have been known here. In 1925, the ridings results were not even recorded - (some fight managwed to lose the ballot boxes, lol). I went to vote today and a union guy who is not voting NDP says he still thinks there is lots of support for the NDP even without the ground troops in Restigouche. They do have many union people ready to work at the polls BUT when the Resturning Office sought names for poll workers (As you may know, the party who places second chooses the poll clerks, some resvision officers, etc) the NDP was unprepared. The Tories were however and filled in the gaps happily with their people. There was one poll clerk at the Advance Poll, the husband of a union organizer. The DRO was Liberal of course but the constable (typically the gov. party) was Conservative and so wwas another position.
And nbplitics, Percy has not got out all of his troops for this campaign. Yes, he ardently supports M. Ouellet but he should have been the candidate and no dount knows it. Ouellet is not cabinet material - after his tenure provincially and the kind of things he has said on the campaign trail, do not look for him in the cabinet. Plus, there are loyal Tories like Greg Thompson who were there first! I agree the language issue is there but M. Ouellet has been in Quebec for the past 20 yrs (we found out where he had been , lol) and that won't help Harper. Some of Percy's and Mado (the Education MInister who reps Edmunston in the provincial leg) have some of their own executive who will not be voting Conservative. Hardly troops out for the cause. M. Ouellet also hired - yes HIRED - a firm in Madawaska for his communications and that works well there but he is losing Anglophone (typical Tory votes) in Restigouche when people do actually read the material that is sent out. (He actually should have saved his money - there are some great communication people in both areas of that riding who he could have turned to but he did not and I think that will hurt him. There are so many English mistakes in the literature that it looks badly done.
So, I have to say that while some will vote for l'equipe Ouellet because he is on the winning side, there are still some (fed up Liberals who cannot bring themsleves to vote Conservative but want to teach their party a lesson and will thus park their vote with the NDP) and Red Tories not yet ready to embrace the new organization. The NDP may have a ready team in Madawaska but in Restigouche, they will have to depend on the union people who are good organizers but do not have the bodies. When you cannpt even fill jobs in riding where people need the little bit of work an elevction provides, there is a definite problem. D'Amours has name recognition now and he has actually done some things for the riding soit all points to a close result - or NOT. It is just too hard to say now.
16 01 06 B.B
J'ai eu le plaisir de lire les derniers commentaires. Pour ma par, je suis sur que Mrs.D'Amours remportera les prochaines éléctions. Pourquois, Mrs Martin du NPD est un syndicaliste, et malgré une longue feuille de route dans le domaine syndicale. Il n'a pas fait grand chose pour les syndiqué qu'il représentait.
14 01 06 Emmanuel Caron
Madawaska-Restigouche is not exactly known for re-electing incumbent MPs, it seems that incumbency is actually a disadvantage here. With the Conservatives having a star candidate who is touted as Cabinet material, and that party leading in polls, expect Jean-Pierre Ouellet to win here. By the way... people in Northern New Brunswick are notoriously for claiming to every party campaign that approach them that they will vote for that party... "just in case", as they say, so this is not a great way of assessing actual support.
13 01 06 nbpolitico
This will be as exciting of a 3-way race as there will be in the country, I expect all three candidates to break or at least be able to be within reach of 30% when the votes are counted. Look for a slight edge to go to Ouellet who, despite an almost 20 year absence from politics, seems to be remembered by a lot of people. Moreover, Percy Mockler - a popular long time MLA and major power broker in the NB Tory party - has been working tirelessly for the candidate and apparently the buzz on the street is that Ouellet would be a shoe-in for a Harper candidate. This makes sense when you think about it - 13 years in a provincial cabinet and a Francophone gives him two important characteristics that Harper will need should he form a government as appears likely.
D'Amours, despite a relatively good term as MP, will likely finish a close third. He lives in and has paid more attention to the Madawaska end of the riding which is traditionally Conservative while he is losing the left-wing vote to the strong union man Martin who is taking almost all of the mill worker vote, in the Restigouche side Martin is stealing the left-of-centre votes from D'Amours by working that end of the riding more effectively. If the Liberals continue to slide and Layton visits the riding during the last week of the campaign (as expected) than third place is almost assured for the incumbent.
10 01 06 Pat
After over a month of campaigning, I don't think D'Amours will lose this riding. The Conservatives, whose candidate was a scandal-ridden provincial minister in the 1980s, have shown a great lack of organization while the New Democrats are unable to build on the results of 2004. What the incumbent brought to Madawaska-Restigouche in 18 months is impressive for a rookie and what I felt when I was in the riding is the voters are realizing this. In 2004, D'Amours was well-known in Madawaska while unknown in Restigouche, which led to many Liberal voters in Restigouche to go with the NDP. Now that he is known throughout the riding, D'Amours has been able to build a good campaign on what has been achieved and the work that's left to do because the opposition.
06 01 06 g-spot
The NDP has a strong local candidate in this riding. Couple that with a strong second-place finish in 2004, and you could have the second New Democrat from New Brunswick. However, if this is anything like my riding (Sydney--Victoria, N.S.), traditional voting will be a roadblock of monolithic proportions for any NDP candidate to over come.
02 01 06 love, sydney
J.P. Ouellet has old-time baggage but also has some name recognition. That is enough to put him first on more people's lists this time around as most people anticipate another minority. The NDP's support is like a cookie dipped in milk, if you don't bite it quick it goes plop!
09 12 05 JFB
Chose certaine, la lutte sera très serrée dans ce comté... ce sera une belle lutte à trois. En 2004, la surprise fut la 2e place de Martin du NPD, très connu dans sa communauté. Depuis, le NPD a choisi de cibler ce comté. Je ne serais pas surpris d'une visite de Jack Layton sous peu. Et le NPD possède une équipe électorale très compétente sur le terrain. Je prévois une victoire très serrée du NPD, en se faufilant entre le PCC et le PLC, par division du vote.
05 12 05 Janey
I am betting NDP but really the riding is up in the air. Yes, the riding has a Liberal tradition but each of the pundits (except for the person who quoted the TJ that the riding would go NDP) has made some errors. Neal suggests Bernie Valcourt will make a come back. How? Boot out the already nominated Tory candidate.
The fact of the matter is this riding - if you look at the poll by poll break down over the years (remember, this riding was created by a PC created commission - much to the chargin of the Restigouche voters - who really dislike being in with Madawaska). But the Madawaska part of the riding has always been a Tory stronghold. Even when the Tory party had a mere six seats provincially, three of them were from Madawaska. Not for nothing was it the then Tory provincial party (pre Bernard Lord days) jokingly referred to as Le Bloc Madawaska. That is of course part of the unease from Restigouche - which the esteeemed Hugh Thorburn in his classic book about federal politics in NB - called a swing riding.
The problem this time is the merger factor. The provincial party is of course a PC party but Francophones and the Red Tories here (and they are the majority of those who belong to the PC party here) are still uncomfortable - perhaps even yet unsold in the merger. It is rumoured that many of them voted Liberal or NDP the last time around, giving the relatively unknown Martin his second place finish. Not many people stay home here - they may spoile their ballots though but they will vote!!
The other problem for the Tories is the candidate himeslf, Jean Pierre Ouellet. He may be a nice guy but many Tories have asked where has he been for the last 20 years? And where was he during thr tough times provincially? He was Minister of Education in the 1980's Hatfield government but was scandal plagued - he was one of the high spending Francophone northern Ministers. While some can argue - like Campbellton's Fremnard Dube (now sadly decceased) - that they must travel further, M. Ouellet managed to make the news when he entertained guests in at a strip joint in Boston's infamous Combat Zone. This will not go overwell at a time when ethics if front and center!!
Even some of the Tories in the Madawaksa part of the riding - people who hold execeutive posts in provincially Tory riding associations and have been with the party even in its darkest days, will be voting Liberalor NDP, as they did last time.
The Liberal candidate is well known in Madawaska and has managed to attain some good press. He opened as passport office in Campbellton - which impressed some. And he has an office even in Dalhousie - in a building owned by a veteran Grit but what would you expect?
The NDP does indeed have a good candidate and if they can tap into the upset people in Restighouche - who rightly feel disenfranchised (I know I do!!) - they will do even better than last time. People also like Yvon Godon here. They contact him at his constituency office and he helps them.
To the other pundits - do your research! The riding is not a traditional Liberal riding - any way you cut it! Plus, when a young woman who was President of the NDP provincially ran in 19789- 80 (around that time), she won polls in Restigouche - an area with lots of labour support. M. Martin has all the correct NDP credentials - get the legendary NDP canvass stuff going, some more publicity and he could give the incumbent a run for the money, leaving the Tory in the dust!!
22 11 05 Ray
My prediction is with the Liberal Party. This region which has a significant portion of francophones has become, over the years, more and more liberal because of the Conservatives stand on billinguism. I think the results of the last election speak for itself. Sending the country in election over the holiday period will not help them either.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
This is a volatile riding and the current Liberal MP is not particularly popular. The NDP could do well in the eastern part of the riding, but they have no chances in the western part, so the only real competition will come from the Conservatives, and they have a good chance here. It is still too early to call this riding.
18 11 05 As heard in the riding...
This riding will easily stay in Liberal hands.
D'Amours has worked hard for the people of the riding and it seems that constituents appreciate what he has done. D'Amours is constantly in the riding meeting with constituents and groups. He works really hard to get youths to stay in the region and he has been working on getting some federal jobs in Madawaska-Restigouche since he was elected in June 2004. The federal fundings he got for the riding in approximately 16 months is quite impressive for a rookie MP. As we were able to read in The Hill Times last spring, he is a rising star on Parliament Hill.
As long as Harper stays at the head of the Conservative Party, that party will have strong barriers to gain more MP's in New-Brunswick, especially in riding with large Francophone population. Harper's presence is a blessing for the Liberals in New-Brunswick. I heard that the conservative candidate, a Minister under the provincial government during the Hatfield years, made some considerable mistakes during his provincial term and that the population still remembers. Even members of the Conservative Party are publicly saying that they won't support him during next election.
As for the NDP, Layton's strategy over the past months will probably affect the local candidate. The major critic for this candidate during last election was that he was always criticizing and not proposing any realistic solutions to issues in the riding.
This riding will definitely stay in D'Amours' hands.
25 10 05 M. Lunn
It is true the Madawaska portion of the riding generally tends to go for parties on the right while the Restigouche portion is more left leaning. That being said, this riding is predominately Francophone, so as long as Stephen Harper is leader, the Tories won't win this. Most Canadians may have forgotten his opposition to Bilingualism and rights of Francophones, but the Francophone community hasn't. The bad news for Jean Claude-D'Amours is he will be toast if Bernard Lord becomes the next Conservative leader after Harper loses the next election.
04 10 05 Bilodeau
Surprenant les commentaires entendus lors de mon passage dans la circonscription deux semaines passées. J'ai entendu d'excellents commentaires sur le candidat du parti PC ( Ouellet ).
C'est une région francophone qui ressemble beaucoup aux régions du Québec.
On me dit que le candidat conservateur a fait beaucoup pour la circonscription quand il était en politique provincial. D'après ce que j'ai entendu, je ne serais pas surpris de sa victoire.
03 10 05 Jonathan Lacroix
J'ai visité la circonscription cet été. Je suis allé dans la région d'Edmundston, dans la région de St-François et de St-Quentin. Le candidat conservateur semble très apprécié et il se pourrait qu'il se fasse élire même le chef du parti est moins populaire. Je prédis une victoire PC. Aux dernières élections, on me dit que c'était un vote de protestation; le NPD est arrivé deuxième.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
This will definitely not go NDP. Based on past results, this is a centre-right, not centre-left riding and only goes liberals since it has a large Francophone population who is uncomfortable voting for a party that has in the past advocated scrapping bilingualism and is seen as hostile to Francophone rights. If Bernard Lord becomes the next leader, the Conservatives may very well win it next election. The NDP might to do a bit better, but they will not win this riding.
01 09 05 David Pagé
J'ai visité ce coin du Canada cet été. Très francophone, je n'ai pas entendu un seul citoyen parler en faveur des libéraux. Un peu comme au Québec, à quelques minutes de voiture de l'autre côté de la frontière, les gens sont vraiment enragés après les libéraux et le scandale des commandites. En plus, le candidat potentiel des Conservateurs ( Ouellette ) semblait très apprécier des gens d'Edmundston et Saint-Quentin. Sachant que le comté avait été conservateur il n'y a pas si longtemps, gageons sur une défaite des libéraux, surtout si les néo-démocrates grugent les appuits des plus choqués d'entre eux.
16 07 05 Former New Brunswicker living in B.C.
Now that Rudolphe Martin has won the NDP nomination here, I will call this one for the NDP. Why? Consider the following.
In the 2004 election, Martin won a surprise 27% of the vote and 2nd place. Indeed, many "experts" were suggesting the riding could go Tory. Rudolphe Martin was nominated only after the writ was dropped and staged a real campaign for only the last two weeks. His campaign had little logistical or material support. Among his contenders was a former NB Tory MLA. Martin's impressive vote result was in spite of the handicaps facing his campaign.
In the next election, things will be different. Martin will be ready to go when the writ is dropped. He'll have his campaign team, materials, and infrastructure ready. The NDP is targetting this riding, and Jack Layton will visit it, as stated in a Telegraph Journal article in May 2005. There will also be a pre-existing base of votes to build on, and the 2nd place finish in 2004 has established the NDP as the primary challenger to the Liberals here. Moreover, the Liberal incumbent has been somewhat invisible and has the smallest profile of any NB Liberal MP. All of these realities should combine to produce an NDP victory in Madawaska-Restigouche.
18 06 05 D
I heard Jean-Pierre Ouellet is running in this riding for the Conservatives. I heard he is a former provincial cabinet minister and I think the Conservatives have a much better chance of winning this time because of Gomery and Same-sex marriage.
22 05 05 Nick Boragina
its 5,000 votes to the NDPer, and 6,000 to the tory. I honestly dont understand, if this riding is too close to call, then which opponent has the possibility of winning? I cant give my 101 reasons why that's ridiculous unless I know how ridiculous it is to begin with.
18 05 05 Spraguer
Martin is an excellent candidate, and this riding has been targeted by the NDP for extra cash and a Layton visit. Godin's immense popularity could spill over the boundary to help, as well.
12 05 05 syllap
The electorate is very mad at the PC provincially for the hospital closing, so if enough former tories and mad liberal vote NDP, this riding could fall. We should wait for the NDP candidate here before predicting. The NDP has been gaining almost every election here....
12 05 05 Neal
Nick,the riding did go PC in 197 when Jean Dube rode in on the Charest wave, so it isn't totally out of the question.
with Valcourt bowing out, and unless the Conservatives do come up with a credible francophone candidate (where's Dube? Would Gilles Bernier consider it?)this one will go Liberal...unless Adsacam really stinks out the joint.
If I may address your point about the Conseratives being nowhere in any francophone ridings, I suggest you take a spin around the Quebec City/Appalaches region where you will see in some cases, over 20%, and up to 30 somehing in Loui St.Laurent. There is also a large number of Francophones in Eastern Ontario, where the Tories took stormont-dundas-charlotenburg, and came in respectably against Boudria in Glengary-prescott-Russel, as well as with 3000 votes in Ottawa-Orleans.
Progress has been made.
09 05 05 Patrick Webber
This could be the NDP's second win in New Brunswick on election night. Rudolph Martin has expressed interest in running again, and he may just do it. In 2004, he was nominated half-way through the campaign and only really campaigned in the last two weeks, yet still took the NDP vote from the 4% in 2000 to about 28%! Now that his campaign will be ready from the beginning, he may just do it. This is the most likely NDP gain in New Brunswick.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
The CPC has not broken though to any French ridings in the entire nation, doing their first one in an Acadian riding, a place where even the old PC Party had trouble, is laughable. While I agree that a Vallacout candidacy (which wont happen) could have pushed this into the TCTC column, without him, this is simply a Liberal seat. The NDP does not have the growth potential to win here. Grit, as always.
04 05 05 Dave
Sorry to say Benard Valcourt released that he was not running. I do not know why this riding is under the to close to call colum. The only way a conservative could win this riding is if the liberals and NDP didn't run a candidate. Look for J.C D'Amour to win this seat again easily.
03 05 05 Da
This riding should stay in D'Amour's favour. The closest was a few thousand and it was an NDP. Look for another Liberal win here.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
With the large Francophone population, this should stay liberal. Even though this is generally a right leaning area, the Conservatives both federally and provincially in win in this area when they have leader who is either Francophone or half Francophone which Stephen Harper is neither.
26 04 05 Neal
Bernard Valcourt is rumoured to be considering a Tory candidacy. If he goes for it , he wins.

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