Update/Mise à jour:
12:53 PM 14/12/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:37 PM 03/05/2005
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Fundy Royal
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
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Green/Vert
Patty Donovan
Libearl/libéral
Eldon Hunter
NDP/NPD
Rob Moir
Conservative/conservateur
Rob Moore

Incumbent/Député:
Rob Moore

2004 Result/Résultats:
Rob Moore
14997
John Herron
11635
Pat Hanratty
5417
Karin Bach
1051
IND
David Raymond Amos
358

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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06 12 05 M. Lunn
Actually John Herron is not running this time around, they nominated Eldon Hunter. And besides even if he was, he was defeated as a Liberal in 2004, so despite the fact I would love to see Rob Moore defeated, it won't happen. The Liberals may pick up the two St. John's seats, but those are the only Conservative seats I think they have much chance at gaining.
30 11 05 Will Smith
This is historically a predominantly Conservative riding, but the last Liberal sent here was only three elections ago and John Herron - the former Progressive Conservative MP - is representing the Liberals this time around. The Sponsorship Scandal has made no inroads in the Maritimes (and in New Brunswick in particular) and the Liberals are polling above 50% in the region.
22 06 05 Bear and Ape
Without the incumbency factor from Herron, Moore should win with over 50% of the vote. A very right wing region which will not be frightened by the CPC and their social conservative views.
22 05 05 SAB
This will be an easy hold for Rob Moore. This largely rural riding will do what they have done every time (bit once) in the last century and send a Tory to Ottawa. Re-drafting of the boundaries of this riding in the last election did not seem to hurt Moore who pulled in 45% of the vote against incumbent John Herron. Watch for Moore to take more than 50% of the vote this time on the strength of his greater profile and public disenchantment with Liberal corruption.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
if a former alliance candidate can defeat a red tory turned grit in this riding, then he can easily repeat that, without herron, and with a bigger adscam. This riding is bedrock social conservative, I know a few people who live here, and they are some of the most extreme people I've met. Southern NB is more socially conservative then alberta, the difference between NB and Alberta is the lack of the in-your-face attitude. Bush polled 51% in NB in one poll I saw of Canada in the last American election, the only province he would have carried. I would not be surprised to see this riding remain tory even in the event of a 1993 style collapse. Moore will win again.
04 05 05 full name
1993 was the first and only time since World War I this riding didn't vote Conservative. With the state the Liberals are in now, there's no way that will change.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This was the only riding where the Conservatives defeated an incumbent. If John Herron could lose to Rob Moore by over 10% there is no way the liberals with their numbers declining can regain this. This has only gone liberal once in the last 80 years, 1993. Also Rob Moore's social conservatism will probably be an asset rather than a liability since they seem to like staunch social conservatives in Southern New Brunswick such as Elsie Wayne, so with this riding being even more conservative, I am sure all the church goers will show up to mark their x by Rob Moore.



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