mrp-Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows

Election Prediction Project

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:16 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:26 PM 14/05/2005

Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Marijuana
Denise Briere-Smart

Democratic Reform BC
Rick Butler

Green Party
Mike Gildersleeve

NDP
Michael Sather

BC Liberal
Ken Stewart

Incumbent:

BC Liberals:
STEWART, Ken

1996 Re-distribution:

Population: 52020

Dev. from Quota: 10.34%

Area (km2): 120

Pop Density: 433.50

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

52.96%

24.95%

13.29%

5.28%

1996 Result (redistributed):

47.67%

37.30%

5.15%

7.33%

1.60%

Surrounding Ridings:
Fort Langley-Aldergrove
Maple Ridge-Mission
Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Surrey-Tynehead


	14 05 05	M. Lunn
This will be very close and had the Pitt River Bridge announcement not been made, the NDP probably would have taken this one. But I think the Pitt River Bridge announcement will be enough to put Ken Stewart over the top. If the NDP does take one of the North Fraser Ridings, it would likely be this one as opposed to Maple Ridge-Mission.
	07 05 05	A. Vancouverite
It's a bit strange to for everyone to be calling this one so strongly for the Liberals. The NDP was approaching 50% in 96', and they did suprisingly well in the federal election, likely reciving a stronger portion of their support in the Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows riding. Since the provincial section of the NDP outpolls the federal the Liberals are in tough in this riding. It's somewhat of a bellweather, but it slightly favours the NDP. If the Liberals are over 5% ahead of the NDP by election day then it's likely it will go to them, if not it will be picked up by the NDP.
	04 05 05	CF/Raised in Ridge
I dont care how much you hate the BC Liberals, if you live in this riding, you hate the Pitt River Bridge much, much more. Gordon Campbell will ensure a massive expansion and upgrade of that bridge and Carol James wont. Put this in the BC Liberal column, guaranteed. I wouldnt be surprised if it ends up in the top 10 highest margins of victory for the BC Liberals. For anyone who has ever sat waiting for the Pitt River bridge to open and close or sat and cursed the thing when it got stuck open......the new bridge is like getting what you want under the Christmas tree. My only fear is that if Mike Sather wins MRPM will lose our new bridge and who knows what else. He was quoted in the paper recently saying it was a pipe dream. Translated that sounds like a bridge isn't that great of importance to him. Stewart should get re-elected on this issue alone.
	25 04 05	Old Hack
Three factors pointing to a BC Liberal win here: 1. Riding has gone more upscale in the last few years with new housing developments, diminishing the strength of the unionized mill worker vote that used to be more prominent. 2. A pretty weak looking NDP campaign -- no prominent name running for the NDP, and not much evidence that they see this riding as a potential pick up for them. 3. The Pitt River Bridge announcement -- blacktop politics at its best, or worst, depending on your view, but it has always worked in BC. I think Ken Stewart wins this one comfortably.
	25 04 05	Mustang Sharon
Now that Michael Gildersleeve of the Green Party has entered the arena (Michael received 13% of the votes last election), Michael Sayther and he are both from the Pitt Poulder Society and it should definitely split up the opposition votes for Ken Stewart. I also agree with the guy from Pitt Meadows that the new Pitt River bridge is a cincher!
	22 04 05	Guy from Pitt Meadows
Ken Stewart just announced a new 6-lane, high level replacement to the Pitt River Bridge, something our community has been screaming for for decades while the NDP did nothing. I think this will be enough to assure Stewart of re-election.
	30 03 05	PJ
This riding and the neighbouring Maple Ridge-Mission riding (which were combined prior to 1991 in the "Dewdney" Riding) have gone with the province-wide winner every election since 1966, and with the exception of Dave Barrett's wins in 1960 and 1963 they've gone with the winner every time since 1945. So if the BC Liberals maintain the lead, they will keep this riding.
	26 02 05	Political Will
Regardless of how anyone might be feeling about the Premier and the BC Liberal Party in general, Ken Stewart has shown himself to be a community minded MLA. I've never been to a local event in this community that this guy hasn't shown up to. He's also faught hard to maintain a moderate image with his work to preserve local wetlands and on behalf of the local fetal alcohol syndrome clinic. Stewart was also on city council in Maple Ridge prior to his election as MLA. The NDP candidate on the other hand is a virtual unknown. Even if it's a close race provincially, I think locals will reward Stewart with another term.
	21-Feb-05	Pundit Guy Email:
This seat and the mission seats are always swing seats, and this tine is no different, whomever wins these two will be in government come the day after the election.

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