Election Prediction Project

Burquitlam
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:24 PM 14/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:24 PM 14/05/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
BC Liberal
Harry Bloy
No Affiliation
Graham "Evil Genius" Fox
Marijuana
Peter Grin
NDP
Bart Healey
Green Party
Carli Irene Travers

Incumbent:
BC Liberals:
BLOY, Harry
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:51280
Dev. from Quota:8.77%
Area (km2):35
Pop Density:1465.14

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

56.34%
23.68%
13.50%
3.79%

1996 Result (redistributed):

43.91%
42.77%
5.03%
5.88%
1.47%

Surrounding Ridings:
Burnaby-Edmonds
Burnaby North
Burnaby-Willingdon
Coquitlam-Maillardville
New Westminster
North Vancouver-Seymour
Port Moody-Westwood



07 05 05 SFU Grad
I think people who live in the riding know this is a toss-up riding. Earlier on I expected the NDP to have a strong advantage because of their recent win in the federal election, but there is a great deal of diversity in this area and that race was legitimately three-way, whereas this is really a two-horse race and federal Liberal votes will split both ways in a hard to predict manner.
Lawn-sign counting isn't terribly good for predicting this riding...in my neighborhood (Lougheed mall/Stoneycreek area) i've only seen two NDP signs on private property and no Liberal signs on private property. Not a particularly strong indicator of how the area is leaning...and I'm not sure i agree with a previous submission that considered Harry Bloy's signs innovative or interesting...slapping on extra little sign - on the large signs - saying "Stick with Harry" or "The Plan is Working" or "Taxes Down" are not particularly enlighting and they look tacky. In this riding they could just as easily say "Tuition Fees up", "MSP and User Fees Up", and "No more Olympic Speed Skating Oval at SFU".
The geography of the riding needs to be carefully considered too. The far east side of the riding (especially on the Coquitlam side) has many rental apartments where incomes are generally lower and the NDP may do well. There is also a pocket of lower rent housing on the western edge of Burnaby mountain where the NDP may do well. In the middle and western side of the riding (especially the Government St. area) housing is expensive and average incomes are higher - the Liberals should do well there. But it is difficult to say for sure as older residents in this riding live in expensive housing they may have purchased many years ago at much lower prices making it easy to over-generalize about the socioeconomic status and expected voting patterns of area residents. The outcome may very well come down to voter turn-out...especially if it varies across the riding. My own intuition and discussions with others i know in the riding indicate a slim NDP victory, but this riding is very much on the bubble and could produce a slight Liberal win. I expect this to be one the last seats called on election night.
07 05 05
M Lunn, you must be delusional if you think the NDP won't take a single Burnaby riding. They will take at least one, and it is becoming increasingly likely that they will take more.
WL does raise a good point, in that Bloy has some names supporting him. However, these names have no standing in the community. Furthermore, while Bloy does have some Korean business/economic groups supporting him, Healey has higher popular support. Bloy is quite a disliked MLA, and has rubbed quite a few people the wrong way.
This riding is still too close to call.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Ignoring the local candidates in this riding, the BC Liberals have a ten point lead in Vancouver/Burnaby/Tri Cities and this riding is probably an average riding where the liberals havea similar lead. Some ridings like Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, the NDP will win by as much as 30 points while ridings like Vancouver-Quilchena and Vancouver-Langara the liberals will win by over 30 points. The only Burnaby/New West/Tri Cities ridings the NDP has a strong chance at winning are New Westminster and Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.
02 05 05 WL
I've had chance to meet both Harry Bloy and Bart Healey in person. They both seem to be nice and genuine people.
I think the BC Liberals will take this riding. However, it will be very close one. Mr.Bloy seem to have very well-organized campaign team. I also think his signs are very unique and interesting. He also has many big names backing him and he has been very involved in community events and forums. He also has a Korean business group supporting him.
This will be very close but Mr.Bloy will win this riding again.
01 05 05
"Quote from Burnaby Now: "But one NDP candidate told me he was taken aback by what appears to be a very well-organized campaign by BC Liberal incumbant Harry Bloy in Burquitlam." -Keith Baldrey, April 30, Page 7.
If NDP candidates themselves are conceding the riding, then it's pretty clear: Bart Healey is toast."
- I see no concession there. I think you're being a wee bit preemptory in giving this riding to Bloy, CF.
30 04 05 Burnaby Mountainer
Oh man, the rhetoric for this race has been so over the top. I guess this is bound to happen with tight competition like this riding though. Going on the comments alone, both candidates could be accussed of eating truckloads of babies.
I'll try to be a little constructive with my comments since both Harry and Bart seem like decent dudes (i've had good encounters with both of them.)
True enough, Bloy does have a visible presence in the community, much more than some other MLAs. However he has also accomplished very little as a backbencher in Victoria and his local visibility has often been an liability instead of an asset (see olympic skating arena.) Also, the reason why this race was so tight in 1996 was that part of the riding used to belong to popular Liberal MLA Christy Clark. Harry Bloy is not obviously as popular.
I'm not entirely sure why many pro-liberals accuse Bart Healey of being such a terrible candidate. He is a good person to run based on what I know about him. One commentor accused him of accomplishing very little. If people looked at the two candidates histories, they actually look very similair. Harry also was in the private sector and volunteered heavily in the community, so I don't think thats a fair criticism of Bart. Also, about the nice factor, I don't get some of the criticisms in this department. He's positive with everyone i've seen him with. Maybe he's only hostile (like Bloy has also been) when someone is actually trying to be confrontational. Human beings can only be so nice when others are seeking a fight. Even political candidates.
This race is going to be close, but due to the strong ground work by the NDP, very little presence by the Greens, and no Christy Clark factor, this will go to Bart Healey by a very slim margin.
30 04 05
'm honestly surprised anyone is calling this election either way still. The riding quite literally is a dead heat at the moment, with one candidate probably winning by less than a hundred votes in this case. It is even closer to call than when I last posted.
M Lunn obviously has some type of vendetta against Mr Healey. I have met and talked with both the main candidates (as the green candidate has been invisible during the campaign), and both aren't the baby-eating type. Harry Bloy does tend to BS a little, but hey, he's a politician, right? Meanwhile, I find that "Go Figure"'s assertion that Bart Healey is quite "jovial" accurate, and from my speaking with him he certainly doesn't seem "rude", an "idiot" or "a sore loser".
As for their qualities as an MLA, I can't say about Healey, as he has never been one. I certainly wouldn't describe Healey as "weak" or "a terrible candidate" as he has been working/campaigning hard, which is why this riding is even close. As for Bloy, he has the names supporting him, but Healey is running the better campaign at the moment. Bloy has no historical support in the riding, which certainly won't help him, and his photo-op seeking nature certainly hasn't helped him organize a large amount of community support. However, BC does have a strong conservative streak in the working class, which might pay off for Bloy if he can utilize it.
In sum, at the moment this riding looks to be one of the closest in the province.
29 04 05 CF
Quote from Burnaby Now: "But one NDP candidate told me he was taken aback by what appears to be a very well-organized campaign by BC Liberal incumbant Harry Bloy in Burquitlam." -Keith Baldrey, April 30, Page 7.
If NDP candidates themselves are conceding the riding, then it's pretty clear: Bart Healey is toast.
24 04 05 M. Lunn
Actually I have met Bart Healey and he is one of the rudest politicians I have ever met. He may be nice to you if you agree with him, but he gets all angry and starts sounding condescending if you don't support his left wing views.
17 04 05 Go Figure?
M. Lunn clearly does not know Bart Healey. Anyone who knows Bart Healey knows he is not rude. This guy is always smiling and jovial and does more for people than I can keep up with, and always has a kind word for you. He has been campaigning and working hard since the last election and this is a winnable riding for the NDP. This is a guy from the community and truly cares about people, unlike Bloy who looks for every photo-op he can (wearing a scout uniform in the Legislature when he is speaking far beyond opportunistic).
17 04 05 CF
Bloy will win this won. 1) Healley is as weak as you can get- i read his bio and the guy never did anything impressive in his life and therefore has nothing he can use to defeat a sitting MLA whose party has a significant lead in the polls. 2) Bloy has a lot of big names supporting him (Lui Passaglia, Brian Jessel, Korean-Canadian Association, North Road Business Association, etc.) while Healey has no influential community members on his side 3) Bloy is the "community guy" in the riding who's always organizing local events and forums and for people who care to pay attention, this will encourage their vote.
15 04 05 M. Lunn
I think the liberals will hold this one for two reasons: Harry Bloy is a strong MLA while Bart Healey is a terrible candidate. Add to the fact they would have only lost this one by 1% in 1996 and today they are polling 5-10% higher in the Lower Mainland over 1996 so a liberal win here.
14 04 05 M. Lunn
Bart Healey may be a hard campaigner, but he still comes across as rude and a complete idiot. Even some of my colleagues who support the NDP think he is liability as opposed to an asset to the party. He was writing complaining about how people didn't want the liberals elected within a month of the election when the liberals were still very popular showing that he is a complete sore loser and hopefully on election day he will lose again and quit politics for good.
12 04 05 Purple
Interesting points of view. Healey came to my doorstep. He's been on practically every street--you have to respect the time and effort that goes into this kind of work. If people want a representative who will be there for them, they will vote for Healey. I have not seen that kind of enthusiasm and dedication in a long while.
02 04 05 JR
Uh... Harry Bloy a strong local candidate... did I miss something?
Harry has got to be the weakest MLA the Liberals have -- he's like the Shih-Tzu of the Liberal Westminster Dog Show! He has been invisible in the community, is rude, looks disheveled, and is completely blithering upon that rare occasion where he may speak.
Contrast that with Bart Healy. He may not be the smartest candidate, but he is a dynamic campaigner. And in a swing riding with a weak incumbent, that can make all the difference.
Working-class Burquitlam will certainly go NDP next time.
30 03 05 PJ
I think M. Lunn is exactly right on this one.
If either the current poll numbers hold or settle in toward their 1996 style equilibrium (with the major parties hovering around the low to mid 40's in popular vote) then this riding will be well withing that 5% range for the local candidates to make the difference.
Contrasting Harry Bloy with Bart Healey, it will be no contest. This riding will stay BC Liberal.
31 03 05 BC voter
I'm shocked that all these people know who Bloy is. Bloy is probably the worst MLA in Burnaby (and that's in a city with Richard Lee)! He has done absolutely nothing for his constituents, nor has he had much media visibility, grandstanding when he does. Healey has worked tirelessly since the last election pounding the pavement, but whether or not that will translate into votes is the question in this riding this election. Bloy seems to be turning it on now, only when he sees that he is actually threatened.
Burquitlam will go within a few thousand votes either way; too close to call at this point.
28 03 05 M. Lunn
As long as the liberals hold their current lead, they should win this easily. Local candidates typically have about a 5% swing in any riding. Harry Bloy is a well-liked candidate even amongst many of my friends who plan to vote NDP, while Bart Healey is a terrible candidate. Even one NDP student who I talked to said that he thought Healey was a liability for the NDP and the liberals would probably win this riding. If the next poll shows the liberals with a similar lead, I plan to mark this one in the liberal column.
28 03 05 Pundit
Harry Bloy is one of the best retail politicians in BC. He has met many of his consituents one on one - more than most. He may be not a media granstander, but too many people have met him for him to lose this election
The NDP is very weak in the GVRD and the NDP have nothing to write home about in this riding.
11 03 05 SFU grad
The NDP won the federal seat in the Burnaby portion of the riding and came close on the Coquitlam side and the city government and Mayor's seat in Burnaby (re-elected in 2002) are held by a Party that is affiliated with the NDP like COPE is in Vancouver. Add this up and i think it will be very hard to see the Liberals win this seat unless a major shift in public opinion occurs in both the riding and provincially.
08 03 05 Bloy Me Down!
Bloy's going to win big? Give me a break. Another silent backbencher who is completely inarticulate, Bloy has been invisible in the community. When he does get publicity, it is for all the wrong reasons, such as the complete debacle where he claimed to be endorsed by the Firefighters. Or his public safety forum a few years back where he was booed and later faced an angry backlash of letters to the local newspapers. Harry Bloy is a weak candidate anyway -- this working class riding sure isn't a given for the NDP. But considering his years of screw-ups, he has little chance for victory.
27 02 05 Adam K
Bloy is very visable in his community and very well liked, he will win for sure.
28 05 05 Floyd
A great has changed since the 2001 election, and this will especially be a close race. People in Burnaby are much more supportive of the NDP agian, and its possible all 4 seats can be won.
Factor in that Harry Bloy has a very low profile and that Bart Healey has been campaigning for practically 3 years could tip the balance in the NDPs favour.
02 03 05 M. Lunn
I would give the liberals a strong edge here for two reasons. This is typically a swing riding and around 5% in any given election vote for the local candidate as opposed to the party. Since Harry Bloy has stayed will connected with the community and has shown a willingness to meet with even his opponents, this should help him, while Bart Healey is a sore loser who was writing letters to the paper whining over the liberal governments actions only two weeks after they were elected. Another factor that will help the Liberals is the fact the election is during the summer semester so there will be fewer SFU students. In fact, I predict both Harry Bloy and Ida Chong would lose their seats if held during the school year, but since both are in swing ridings with a major university not in session, they will both hold their ridings.
02 03 05 Bill Smith
Harry Bloy has worked hard at getting his name known in the community. Korean voters are among the groups fond of him. Bloy would be in much greater danger if he had to take on NDP letter-writer Brian J. O'Neill who has a weekly letter to the editor (it's frequency makes one wonder if he will get a column someday) in the local paper ridiculing the good work Bloy has done in his community. Despite focusing more on the political side of governing than most MLAs, Bloy will get re-elected in this solidly Liberal riding.
05 03 05 BLL
Given this was part of the one seat in the region the BC Liberals won in 1996, I would guess that they will hold it this time, although it will be close.
25 02 05 Initial
Bloy's going to win this one. He's running against the same Bart Healey he beat by 33 points in the last election. With the likely continued emergence of the greens in this election, expect the left to split, leaving Harry with a 10 point victory.
24-Feb-05 KH
Bloy has done a lot for the riding and seems to really be a good "community guy". He'll win this one in a walk.
21-Feb-05 Pundit Guy
Email:
This will be one of the elction deciders it's too close to call...a definite swing seat


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