Election Prediction Project
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North Vancouver
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:56 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:34 AM 6/23/2004

Constituency Profile
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Canadian Action canadienne:
Andres Barker
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Don Bell
Michael Hill
John Nelson
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Peggy Stortz
Ted White

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
North Vancouver (100.0%)
Ted White

2000 Result/Résultats:
25,930 50.02%
16,874 32.55%
3,678 7.09%
2,551 4.92%
2,807 5.41%

North Vancouver
(216/241 polls, 76301/81405 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 k.k.a
Email: [hidden]
Pissing off North Vancouver Film Industry 5,000 votes
Alienating Iranian residents of North Vancouver 6,000 votes
Upsetting immigrants, interest groups, undecided voters,liberals 20,000 votes
Ted White's concession speech on election night-Priceless
20/06/04 WM
Email: [hidden]
This riding should be pulled from the "too close to call" category and placed solidly in the Conservative camp. The Liberals might have targeted Ted White (certainly not the nicest guy around) when they called the election, but they're on the defensive across the province. To suggest that they'll gain seats in BC is courageous, but it certainly won't happen in a riding where 13,000 more people voted CA/PC than Liberal last time.
15/06/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
Sadly, Mr. White will be re-elected. There is just to much ground for the other parites to make up and with the thought of a CPC minority people arn't going to throw thier vote to someone after holding out this long for a government member. However, the hansard comment below (which I checked and is accurate) SHOULD make people think twice, but sadly, it won't.
15/06/04 Senator
Email: [hidden]
This is getting closer by the day. First reel all candidates meeting took place last night. It is clear the NDP is not in the game. Straight two way race betwwen the local Mayor (Liberal) and Ted White.
The Liberal outclassed White big time in the debates. White has no local record. Bell and Cheema could be sleepers if numbers in Lower Mainland hold for Libs.
I know a lot of Conservatives will be breaking out the champaign if White looses. As if Stephen Harper needed more good news.
09/06/04 J. Blough
Email: [hidden]
Ted White is popular with the older church-going social conservatives and with the young professionals who feel they pay too much tax. He will have no problem winning this affluent neighbourhood.
04/06/04 Observer
Email: [hidden]
I think Ted White will win based on name recognition and publicity alone. The Liberals will hopefully widely publicize the Hansard excerpt seen in the previous post (assuming it is correct) which I think may require an explanation from the Conservative Party and Harper but won't hurt White's chances in his riding. Unfortunate, but that is what will happen. If the quote in the Hansard comment is true, then White owes everyone an explanation as comments like that are not acceptable in Canada today.
04/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
5 Months ago I would've considered this riding a close race purely because Don Bell is a great candidate and might have been able to cover the 9000+ vote deficit from the last election, but people here have no love for the New Paul Martin liberals now...
(Strangely, the Liberals have flown in Altaf Ebrahim, a Liberal campaign hotshot to help Bell... They must know something I don't otherwise why would they bring the resources?)
04/06/04 Election Prediction Project
Email: election@electionprediction.org
Mr. Ted White has threatened legal action against Election Prediction Project for publishing submissions that asserted certain opinion on Mr. White’s comment on the Iranian Community. While we disagree with Mr. White’s (and his lawyer’s) point that those comment constitute defamation, as a volunteer-run project, we are in no position to fight a legal case. Thus, upon consideration, we hava decided to comply to Mr. White demand, and hereby APOLOGIZE, and remove all those submissions. We would state without reservation that Election Prediction Project does not have or care to have a position regarding whether Mr. White is a racist.

We would like to publish the following excerpt from Hansard of the House of Commons.
March 31, 2003 - Mr. Ted White (North Vancouver, Canadian Alliance):
"My riding has the largest Iranian population in the country. At least 40% of all the Iranians living there are refugee claimants. Most of them are bogus. I just mentioned the lawyer who sent me an e-mail last Wednesday or Thursday. He actually put in his email that people in the Iranian community had told him the guy was a criminal in Iran and he is a criminal in Canada and they wanted to know why we had let him in.
I cannot say how many times that comment has been made to me by the decent Iranian immigrants in my riding who came in using the proper system. They see all these, and I am sorry to use the word, scumbags who come in using our refugee laws and claiming refugee status just so they can be criminals here."

For complete speech, please see Hansard.

03/06/04 Tom
Email: [hidden]
As if the Liberals didn't have trouble enough . . . their star candidate is in major trouble in his capacity as mayor. It's super-local politics, with the community of Edgemont Village opposing a new liquor store that can't be stopped. Stupidy at the municipal level was a major factor in these developments. I know it sounds trivial, but the provincial MLA has received more mail on this than on anything in 3 years, and considering what the provincial government's been up to lately, that's saying something. At least one long-time Liberal supporter will not be backing Don Bell as a result. The point is that this issue will significantly affect Don Bell's ability to point to his municipal record without pissing people off, and his record of being in government was the only area he had a clear advantage over Ted White. This one will be over before it started.
03/06/04 D.A.
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals always target this riding and come up short. Why they think they can cherry pick it again is beyond me.
01/06/04 Old Political Hack
Email: [hidden]
This is one of those ridings that MIGHT have been in play had the big 250 seat Martin sweep materialized, but we all know that is long long gone. Love him or hate him, Ted White had been padding his vote totals every election, and can now tack another few percent due to the merger. There may be some close races in BC on June 28, but it's hard to see how anyone could make a persuasive case that this will be one of them.
25/05/04 CS
Email: [hidden]
Ted White is the only candidate in this riding with a strong sign presence - the Liberal guy hasn't even shown up.
If the signs are any indication, White will hold his seat easily.
25/05/04 Tom
Email: [hidden]
Why this riding is too close to call I have no idea. In the last election, the Alliance won by a landslide, and the Liberals were more popular federally than they are today. While the liberals are more popular provincially than they were last election, their popularity has not increased enough to surmount an 18 point gap. This is prototypical conservative territory: mainly rich, mainly white voters from the suburbs. The fact that the Liberals are running a relatively strong candidate (the District mayor, Don Bell) against a relatively weak one (an almost invisible MP, Ted White) is not going to have that much of an impact, as most people vote for parties, not for individuals. The Alliance-PC merger will help Ted White, if only a little. The only interesting thing about this race is who will finish third. The NDP seems like the obvious choice, but they polled terribly (6% range) in the provincial election, and finished behind the Green Party in every provincial constituency in this area. Look for a Conservative win by about 15 points over the Liberals, with the Green Party in third polling about 10-15%, depending on whether the NDP runs a candidate.
25/05/04 Koby
Email: [hidden]
I am dismayed at the prospect of Ted White winning again, but this time I am a little more hopeful. What worries me is sentiments expressed by one of the posters. He said that Kinsella’s dirt digging bothered him. What exactly irked him? He pointed out that Ted White had a past relationship with Doug Christie. Doug Christie is not exactly a fine upstanding citizen and Kinsella was right to bring Ted White once belonged to Western separatist party that Christie heads, viz., the Western Canada Concept. There is a whole lot more that should be pointed out about Ted White, his outrageous claim he made in the house March 31 of last year, for example. "At least 40 per cent of all the Iranians living there (North Vancouver) are refugee claimants". "Most of them are bogus." Oh well, what can you expect from a candidate whose leader said back in 2001 that "west of Winnipeg the ridings the Liberals hold are dominated by people who are either recent immigrants or recent migrants from eastern Canada: people who live in ghettoes and who are not integrated into western Canadian society." This time I have a feeling North Vancouver voters will be a more suspicious of Ted White’s beliefs, past and present. I hope they do not prove me wrong.
07/05/04 initials only
Email: [hidden]
Ted White is easily underestimated. If he has no ambition for Cabinet and no prospect for being there, it is because he focuses all his energy and time on constituency representation, and he does it very well. His practice of direct democracy is far more intelligent and effective than his rhetoric: He turns to his constituents for guidance very selectively -- only on issues where general public philosophy (as opposed to economics and other "hard" criteria) is the dominant factor.
He has also proven that he will not sacrifice his principles of small government and reduced spending in order to bring federal pork to his own riding. I believe that even people who disagree with the small government principle respect Ted for following through on it: Many others who talk his talk do not walk the walk.
The charge of racism will not stick. The timing of the new membership submissions made it obvious that this was a hijack attempt. Yes, the hijackers used ethnicity as a short cut to recruit their instant members -- but it would have been a hijack no matter where they got the people from.
The local Liberals (and I speak as a lifelong Liberal) have an unerring aim for their own foot. Warren Kinsella was an utter disaster -- a mudslinging blowhard whose grandstanding and bizarre insults were a personal offence to the North Van voters. Bill Bell was not that type of person, but he tried some similar tactics, with predictable results. Perhaps Don Bell will do better, but only if he can keep the mud men on his side away from all publicity and press contact.
13/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
Much as I'd like to see Ted White lose, I think it's wishful thinking at this point to imagine that a government candidate could defeat an incumbent opposition member who's held the seat ever since the Liberals came to power. This may have seemed a possibility in 2003, before the sponsorship scandal, the exposure of the Martinites' systematic campaign against sitting MPs and would-be candidates who weren't vocal Martin supporters, and the merger of the Alliance and PCs. Now, the Liberals will be lucky to hold onto the seats they already have in BC, although they might pick up one or two of the newly created ridings, or (less likely) a riding where the Tory incumbent isn't running again. If anyone remembers White's re-nomination battle by the time of the election, they won't much care, as in many other ridings the Liberals have far more egregious and far more publicized examples of how not to select a candidate.
08/04/04 Donnell Gagner
After 10 years of ineffectual representation, someone finally stood up to Ted White for the Conservative nomination. Though he won, White was made to look unprepared and weak in the face of this challenge, and that's putting it nicely. In the face of a strong local Liberal candidate in Don Bell, Ted will again look weak and unprepared, and I suspect he will panic much like he did against Mr. Zahidi. When North Vancouver boots him out he will be woken up from his own little world and he probably won't even see it coming. North Vancouver does not like Ted White, it liked Reform and it liked the Canadian Alliance. North Vancouver is tired of having no voice in government OR in opposition as even the Conservative party is tired of White's direct democracy tirades. Consequently, with a strong Liberal candidate White will be defeated, albeit by the slimmest of margins.
07/04/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
This should have been Liberal years ago, but for years the very popular Conservative Chuck Cook held it (Gordon Gibson and Iona Campagnola trying to unseat him). And since 1993 by the quirky Ted White - why the Liberals can not defeat I do not understand.
Back the from the 1950s the 70s, this was the Liberal strong hold in BC. The NDP even won here in the 1970s.
This is where the Liberals should have run Emerson (I suspect David Emerson is not really interested in being an MP)
07/04/04 Jim Reach
Email: jr_280@aol.com
I don't know if Ted can pull it off this time. He's already marketed himself as a Western Canada Concept candidate, Reform candidate, Alliance candidate, and now Conservative candidate??? Give us a break. Ted just finished a divisive nomination campaign which culminated with the local media basically branding him as a -(edited as per Mr. White request)-. While it is true that people in BC aren't going to vote for Paul Martin, they may vote for their home grown mayor Don Bell. North Vancouver may well replace weasel White with weasel Bell.
23/03/04 V.D.
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals have targeted this riding, and put high profile candidates against white in the past and have always come up short (and white is far from a star/high profile MP).
In regards to polling (and this is more of a general statement to all BC, for lack of a forum I'll say it here) The Reform Party/Alliance/main conservative opposition party has since 1993 always polled low and behind the liberals inbetween elections, and then win 25 or so seats at federal election time(lou sekora won a mid-term byelection, lost badly in 2000). Now if things really have changed, and during the actual campaign/the last poll before the election, the numbers look the same and it's a three way race, with the liberals or NDP on top, THEN the conservatives have to worry. If that's the case, the NDP or Liberals have a chance at winning several (10 or so) seats in B.C. Until that happens, I'd say a lot of the conservative incumbants are safe.
20/03/04 Mike D
Email: [hidden]
Although I live in Nova Scotia, I grew up in this riding too (North Van City). While North Van City is more densely populated and diverse, this is a very whitebread, wealthy riding in the vast North Van District. It is also highly educated, which makes it a small wonder that a kook like White has survived this long. Bill Bell, the previous Liberal Bell (unrelated as far as I know) to run against White is a fair bit weaker than Don Bell. The NDP will be lucky to break 20%, but will undermine Don Bell if they actually did. This will be very close.
19/03/04 M.W.
Email: mijawara@yahoo.com
Grew up in this riding, but despite my best efforts, it's not going NDP any time soon. Stretches from Deep Cove to the Squamish Nation reserve, mostly middle class/professional. Ted White is viewed as somewhat of a weirdo by most on the North Shore, and his recent panic attack involving Iranian Canadians "infiltrating" the new Conservative riding association won't do much to change that. NV District mayor Don Bell looks like a good bet to win the Liberal nomination, and while he's not wildly popular, Bell could be able to wrest this seat from White with the Conservative vote so badly shrunken in BC.
18/03/04 Adam Teiichi Yoshida
Email: ayoshida@fas.harvard.edu
This one won't even be close. Ted White is a good, popular, and competent MP. Liberal support will collapse in this Province after the writ is dropped.
16/03/04 George Pringle
Email: george_sifton_pringle@yahoo.ca
For some reason the Liberals always target this riding, having thrown Mobina Jaffer, Warren Kinsella and NDP Councillor Bill Bell in an attempt to "unite the Libs & Left) - Ted White has increased his majority each time.
After defeating a Tiny Tory Pearl Harbor attack during the nomination, Ted is locked in as the next MP.
16/03/04 Luke
Email: [hidden]
NDP member from the North Shore area here. If the Liberals continue polling strong in British Columbia, which will certainly be the case with Paul Martin as Prime Minister, this is one of many middle class ridings in BC that will go Liberal. Municipally this is strong Liberal and NDP territory, with much of the NDP vote going Liberal at the federal level. The Liberals have a very strong base level of support in this multi-cultural, middle class riding. Paul Martin (and the subsequent weakness of Stephen Harper in BC) will mean a Liberal victory in North Vancouver.

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