Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:22 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:37 PM 6/25/2004

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Jim Pankiw
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Ron Schriml
Bradley Trost
Nettie Wiebe
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Patrick Wolfe
Larry Zarysky

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Saskatoon-Humboldt (100.0%)
Jim Pankiw

2000 Result/Résultats:
14,500 43.56%
8,886 26.69%
7,409 22.26%
1,805 5.42%
688 2.07%

(165/180 polls, 52578/55634 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Joey Kay
Email: [hidden]
This one should be a tight race, but a win for the NDP. Pankiw will take the right-wing 15% no questions asked - that will come directly at the expense of the Conservatives.
Patrick Wolfe may be able to push out a lot of lawn signs, but Nettie is so well respected, and the Conservative split, it's hers to lose.
23/06/04 LK
Email: [hidden]
I have to agree with all the praise for candidate Patrick Wolfe. After meeting him a few times his enthusiasm has rubbed off on me. I strongly encourage those who typically vote for a particular party to take a good look at the individuals who'll be representing your voice. Patrick will make himself heard just as he has throughout the riding. As for the "slum-lord" accusations, I find such an attack ridiculus. Accusing a man who has volunteered hundreds of hours to the betterment of his community is just sad. He's provided housing for many families who couldn't do it alone while lending a helping hand.
23/06/04 DAB
Email: [hidden]
I very recent poll that I have had access to shows with the candidates name in the NDP has a lead over the independant with the liberal and alliance out of the race. So this seat is going NDP.
23/06/04 mf
Email: [hidden]
I think there are some pretty arrogant posts by some NDP predictions. I find it odd that they're discounting the Patrick Wolfe. For people who think that signs make and election come to Humboldt where he's won there. His strong campaigning will only continue to win votes in Saskatoon. I agree the NDP is stong in Saskatoon but not at all outside and the rural regions are typically Liberal friendly. But what this tight race boils down to are the candidates and Patrick Wolfe is clearly the best choice. The Conservatives are running a weaker candidate and I've heard a lot of complaints about Nettie Wiebe being too radical on certain issues pertaining to industry, especially in rural areas. And we cannot forget DR. Pankiw who only hurts the Conservatives more. If you want a candidate who will truly represent our region and bring back economic prosperity take a look at Patrick Wolfe!
First of all, I have to response to this crazt Liberal posters. Patrick Wolfe has been VERY slimy in this race. As for all the signs on private property, most of them are rental property his family owns. Most of people living these house are not happy about it. A few even have put other party signs in front of "mr wolfe's" signs.
This is two person race. The con trost is going no where. Mr wolf will finish third. Pankiw and the ndp. People don't understand how much support this guy has.
23/06/04 LS
Email: [hidden]
OK. I don't get some of the NDP predictions on here. The Liberals have a good shot at taking this seat on election day. Patrick Wolfe is a great candidate who has been working very hard for over a year and a half. As a result of Patricks's work, there were over 700 people who turned out to his nomination meeting. How many people showed up to Netties or Brads? Despite the comments made by another poster (Who is either visually imparred or has very poor math skills) Patrick has hundreds and hundreds of signs throughout the riding. As for Nettie, she chose not to participte in a debate in Lake Lenore a few weeks ago, which combined with the despite many people in rural Saskatchewan have for the NDP will cost her dearly. As well, she is definately not a moderate. An analysis of some of her past policy statements would even frighten Jack Layton.
The bottom line is that there will be a split of the Conservative vote here, Nettie is too left wing and the New Jack Layton style NDP won't play well in Saskatchewan, as well Patrick has been working very hard over the last year and a half and is very well organized and strong. With all of these factors combined this constituency should return Liberal after a 7 year hiadas.
21/06/04 mik
Email: [hidden]
The reason that people are voting Liberal is because of the strong candidate. People who are normally NDP or Conservative have been impressed with Patrick Wolfe's enthusiasm and dedication to the riding. He's done more in the last year and half than all the other candidates combined. Secondly, outside of Saskatoon the NDP are not well liked, especially rural regions, where people are tired of being constantly forgotten by the provincial NDP government. Wolfe has proven that he'll represent everyone in the riding, he's visited over 100 towns and 500 farms. And for those who think that the NDP are polling strong, that may be true, but not in Saskatchewan thanks to the provincial government and their tax hike. Last polls in Saskatchewan have NDP down 8 points, Liberals up 10, and Conservatives relatively unchanged. As for the Conservative candidate, he's relatively unknown and I've seen him out once so far. And in the rural areas Pankiw still has plenty of support which will only hurt the Conservatives. Latest Ipsos-Reid has Liberals at 34% nationally, Conservatives at 28%, and NDP 16%.
Email: [hidden]
It really sounds like this race is tight, from these posts. But, for a riding that has no Liberal support (according to previous posts), i do find it surprising that Liberals have more signs on Humboldt lawns, (the town Jack Layton has visited) and is a strong competitor with the NDP on signs in Saskatoon. As for organization, each of the parties have offices in Saskatoon and Humboldt, and from personal experience all of the parties are ready to run a powerful election day in all of the polls. However, relying on polls in this riding is extremely violatile, as Pankiw's recent poll is held as suspicious to many people, and the inside polls are bouncing from day to day. All major polls have showen that the three major political parties are in this race, to discount one is a beginner's mistake, especailly when door knocking. (and of course, one must rmember Pankiw) As for the Liberal candidate's past in real estate, I think that his commitment to the race relations committee, heritage projects, recommendations by the Saskatoon fire officials, and his rent-to-own record (deemed the best in the city) speaks for itself against the slum-lord alligations.
21/06/04 JCM
I am switching my prediction to an NDP win in this seat.
Apparently there is no Liberal presence in the riding, and Jim Pankiw is riding high. This will open the door for a Nettie Wiebe victory next Monday.
15/06/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
Ok. I just don't get why all these Liberal posters are picking this seat as a win. It just doesn't make sense. This fight is between the NDP and the conservative with the liberals in a distant third. The only way the Liberals won't place third in this seat is if Pankew beats them and they come in forth. The fact is that there is about 2-300 votes between the NDP and the Conservatives. If Pankiew takes 5% of the conseravtive vote then the NDP win, if he takes less then the conservative will win. I personaly think that Pankeiw will take just uner 10% of the vote and about 80% of that will be from the conservatives. This leaves the seat as a NDP win.
12/06/04 J Soanes
Email: jsoanes@sasktel.net
Remember Jim Pankiw got 22% of the vote in the recent Mayoral race in Saskatoon. For most of us (the other 78%) Pankiw seems absolutely obsurd but around 22% of the electorate is convinced he "tells it like it is". Do not under estimate how much of the vote he will pull away from the Conservatives. Look for the "Tories" to come in 3rd beating only Mr. Pankiw himself. Nettie Wiebe is a great candidate and the NDP will take this in a close 4-way race.
12/06/04 John
Email: jnesdoly@hotmail.com
Jim Pankiw has successfully made himself the issue here. On voting day it will come down to FOR Jim Pankiw, or AGAINST Jim Pankiw. The vast majority of the voters in Saskatoon-Humboldt agree ith him and polls taken in the riding have shown him in the lead. Pankiw will win followed closely by Wiebe. Trost will finish 3rd while the Liberals finish 4th.
The ndp has won the sign war in the city. They shipped layton out to humbolt(the rural part ). The ndp (like the rest ) is doing polling . No way the leader would be out in the sticks if this one wasn't close. Although this is a three way race, NDP, CON, IND (the liberal's are not factor anywhere in this riding(the liberal wolfe can't even a house (other than the slum houses he owes) to put a sign on)). The ndp is better organized. On election day it will go orange.
12/06/04 Peter
Email: [hidden]
Has there ever been a race where the winner polled only 30%? It could happen here.
The conservative vote will split becasue Mr. Pankiw can count on polling as high as 15 percent in the riding. If he were not there, the Conservatives would have this seat.
The NDP core is solid (as it is everywhere in Sask) but doesn't have alot of growth potential in this riding so it will peak at some where around 25% of the vote. That leaves a tight race for the Conservatives and Liberals. Despite the Liberals problems nationally, the candidate here has worked hard enough to get alot of local respect. That might keep some poeple in the Liberal fold who would have left if it had been a lesser candidate. Is is enough. My gut says no. It'll be a riding that goes to the last few polls before we know for sure.
11/06/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
To all the liberal posters - share your drugs, they seem good! The NDP is in a tight race with the conservatives here. If Pankiew takes more than 5% from the conservatives then the NDP wins, if Pankew takes less than 5% then the conservatives will probably hold on. The only time the liberals have won this seat in decades was in 1993 when they got the best results in Saskatchewan in 30 years. There is no way THIS liberal campaign will get anywehere near that support, the provincial liberals are dead and the federal liberals are tanking left and right. If the NDP don't win this seat (which I still think they will) the the consrvatives will. The Liberals will place a pathetic third in this riding unless they do so poorly that even Pankiew beats them.
11/06/04 MS
Email: [hidden]
As much as it pains me to say this, I believe the Conservatives will take this riding. The Conservatives seem to be holding on to much of the Alliance support they had in this province from last election; and last election they won this riding easily. I do believe that the NDP will make this a closer race than last time, however. Nettie Wiebe has a higher profile here than the other two candidates, and Jim Pankiw will get some votes from the hard core right that may otherwise have gone to the Conservatives. For the NDP to actually win, they will need to pick up a lot of support that went to the Liberals last time and I don't see it happening. Even in my neighbourhood, which should be the strongest area in this riding for the NDP, I have noticed there are almost as many lawn signs for the Liberals as for the NDP. Considering much of the rest of the riding should be strong for the Conservatives, I think they will win. A note about the Liberals. At one time they had a shot here, but given how they have fallen apart nationally and the animosity towards the federal Liberals in rural Saskatchewan plus the fact they seem to have a weak candidate (in contrast to Chris Axworthy in Saskatoon Wanuskewin, where they still do have a chance) it seems very unlikely they could win here.
11/06/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
The Liberals will take this seat? This is just as insane as saying the Liberals will take four seats in Alberta. It is not going to happen. The Liberals are down in polls across Canada, except Atlantic Canada. Saskatchewan has a history of having the protest vote, and that will either go NDP or Conservative. My bet it will go Conservative, which will help with the votes Pankiw will take, but in the end a Conservative gain.
11/06/04 jp
Email: [hidden]
I still believe that Pankiw will split the right vote and that the liberal will win this seat.
08/06/04 initials
Email: [hidden]
I believe that the Liberals are still in this race because the candidate is strong. He has been to every small town in the riding, and has given the people a strong representation of who he is. Nettie Wiebe also has a strong personality. However, the Conservative candidate is only known in the party's small circle. With another strong personality, Jim Pankiw in the race, the people are left to choose between people from the extreme ends of the spectrum, an unknown conservative, or someone who has become well known in the coffee shops in the area, the Liberal Candidate Patrick Wolfe. Perhaps if this were a different candidate, the previous submissions may be accurate, but a lot of elbow grease from the candidate does pay off.
08/06/04 Kip Luce
Email: kipluce@hotmail.com
Sure, the NDP didn't do very well in this riding last time out, but a lot has changed. Jim Pankiw has shown his true colours, but he will still attract a certain type of voter, spliting the vote on the right. Soft votes that went Alliance last time will not want to make the same mistake twice. In that event the Liberals should pick up some votes, but Wolfe is a weak Liberal candidate that looks more seems to be more of a businessman than a politician. The NDP candidate isn't their biggest star, but will pick up a lot of votes. Voters in this riding created a monster last time, and will swing left this time.
Email: [hidden]
A coservative win? I don't think so. The party is running what I would argue is one of their weakest candidates in the province. That combined with the votes that Pankiw will take (Yes he will win votes he is not a run of the mill independant candidate) will put the seat clearly out of the reach of the Conservatives. That leaves a very left wing NDP candidate who is loathed by many moderates within her own party, and a hard working, energetic Liberal candidate Patrick Wolfe who is the best bet in this seat.
05/06/04 LT
Email: [hidden]
This riding is very tough to predict. Pankiw is a polarizing voice. People either love him or hate him, and in the last civic election he had 25% of the vote. If lawn signs are any indication ditches and boulevards all around the riding will be voting Pankiw :)
A month ago I would have predicted an NDP victory. The NDP tend to focus their resources on ridings they can win and your typical NDPer hates Pankiw more than GW Bush! The latest regional polls from CES show that the Liberals are up 8 points in Saskatchewan, and the NDP are down 10 points. That probably puts this riding in a dead heat.
01/06/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
This riding is going Conservative. The Liberals would be the last party to win this seat. The reall fight is between the NDP and Conservative party. Now the NDP maybe polling strong right now, but so is the Conservative party. This will be a fight between the Conservative party, and the NDP, with Pankiw getting only his hardcore followers vote.
25/05/04 JCM
Email: [hidden]
Look for a Liberal win in Saskatoon-Humboldt. The Liberals are putting a lot of energy into winning this riding, which has a history of electing Liberals federally and provincially. I believe New Democrat Nettie Wiebe will be a strong second in this seat.
25/05/04 Matthew
Email: [hidden]
Way too close. This will definately be a four horse race and I could see all pulling in roughly 25% of the vote. The CA-PC vote was 49% last time around and Liberal-NDP vote was also 49%. Because the popular incumbent Jim Pankiw is running here as an independent, and support for the Conservatives in Saskatchewan is going down (though still on top), the potential for an upset is significant. Since I can't see the Liberals picking up much more than they did last time, the most likely benefactor of the vote-splitting is the NDP, which has previously been the recipient of Western populist, protest votes. Will Jack Layton appeal to rural voters is the question that remains to be answered.
19/05/04 CC
Email: [hidden]
I disagree there will be much vote splitting between the Conservatives and Independent Jim Pankiw. Let's face it there is very little support for Independent candidates - what will that get you to elect independent. What will happen is enough vote splitting between the Liberals and the NDP to cause the Conservatives to ride up the middle. The history of this riding shows strong right-wing support either in close second place finishes or elects. The riding was represented by the NDP in the 80's and they came in a strong second in the last two elections. The strong Liberal candidate (Patrick Wolfe) will cause vote splits between the NDP and the Liberals. But it certainly will be close and provide good entertainment on election night!!
16/05/04 ES
Email: [hidden]
I agree with ZJ. I had no clue who I was going to support until I met Patrick Wolfe when he was out campaigning. I was impressed by his views and his enthusiasm and passion. Patrick seems to gain a lot of support from traditional and non-traditional Liberals alike and he is also running a very strong pre-writ campaign as far as I can tell. Because of that and because many people don't want certain other candidates to win I think that Patrick will take this one, but not by the biggest of margins (the riding still has considerable NDP support).
15/05/04 Z J
Email: zach.j@shaw.ca
I think that this one will be close, but on election day, Patrick Wolfe and the Liberal party are going to squeak by with a win. First of all, the Conservative poll numbers are less than stellar right now. Then, when you take into account the 'Pankiw Vote Splitting Factor', I don't think that any right-wingers are going to win here this time. Then, on the left side of the spectrum we have the NDP with Nettie Wiebe who is too extreme, even for a lot of lifelong New Democrats that I have spoken to. Most of these people plan to vote Wolfe, because he is a pretty middle-of-the-road guy. Also, Wolfe seems to attract personal support from Conservatives who are disallusioned with their party/candidate. As I said, this one will be close, but this riding will become a dot of red in a sea of blue.
15/05/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Pankiw as Saskatoon's version of the Oxley Moron? I'd say Brisbane's a tad more rightward leaning than Saskatoon... and Hanson didn't actually form "One Nation" until after she was elected as an Independent (but before she was defeated as a result of a brilliant piece of re-districting), but it's a fair comparison.
Due to Pankiw running as an Independent and the resulting split in the right, Wiebe *should* be able to pull of a win, but I'm sticking with a non-prediction for now as it's possible that Pankiw's campaign tanks... if on the other it really catches fire, the Reformatories might finish behind the *Liberals*...
12/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
After reviewing all the evidence, it looks like this riding will be going to the NDP.
I just cannot beleive that Pankew will dissapear. He will split votes here, and with the CPC polling, right now in SK, less then the CA got in terms of votes in 2000, it's quite obvious what direction things are going in.
07/05/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
The NDP taking this seat? Not very likely, will they do better this election? Yes. The numbers Pankiw will take will be small, and with the Liberals loosing support in Saskatchewan it will be split to the NDP and Conservative party, so any NDP gains there can be said for the Conservative party aswell. Now with the NDP and a very unpopular budget, it could hurt them federally.
28/04/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
To clear up a couple of points being made above. In 1997 the candidate was Dennis Gruending who later became the MP for Saskatoon-Rosetown-Bigger. He cam within 2000 votes of winning when the NDP was doing so-so in the polls. (He was a very strong candidate). In 2000 the candidate was Arman Roy who was not only a week candidate but also the polls for the NDP were pathetic. This time around the candidate is very strong and the polls are the best they have been for the NDP in years. Also, Pankeiw is running, and as listed above will take votes from the Conservatives. So if you take the 1997 numbers (better comparison) and strip off the 5% that Pankiew will take then this looks like a pretty clear bet for the NDP
26/04/04 ab
Email: [hidden]
I agree that Pankiw still has strong support from a select few and this will help to split the right-wing vote. The recent tax hikes by the provincial NDP government may disgruntle some of the populace. Also, Paul Martin's visits to Saskatchewan show promise that the new liberal government is showing more interest in the west. Combined the with recently nominated Patrick Wolfe, who I feel will run an aggressive campaign, I think the liberals will take this riding and a few others in Saskatchewan.
24/04/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Why Jim Pankiw hasn't taken that extra step and formed his own far-right-populist political party--sort of like the Pauline Hanson of Canuckistan--I'll never know. (Of course, it would steal votes and seats away from the Tories--on the other hand, it might *elect* them, by making the ex-CCRAPpers look sensibly moderate by comparison.) Ah well, maybe next time. Maybe if we have some form of rep-by-prop, the Pankiw Populist Party might even win seats next time. But for now, more star-candidate hopes for Laytonmania, tempered a bit by the overall autopilotness of Saskatchewan's NDP...
03/04/04 Garth Brasseur
Email: [hidden]
I think this riding is unpredictable at this time. How many votes Pankiw will get cannot be determined. If it appears possible for the Conservatives to win the election nationally, I believe this seat will go Conservative as he will take very few votes. If, on the other hand, a national Conservative win appears to be an impossibility, I believe lots of the Social Conservatives in the rural part of the riding will vote for Pankiw. This could split the vote enough for the NDP or Liberals to win. If either the Liberal or NDP candidates can establish themselves as the main competition to the Conservatives, the anti-Conservative vote (and there is a large one in the "university" progressive neighbourhood) might concentrate behind them. A good sign campaign giving the appearance of momentum could be a deciding factor.
31/03/04 John
Email: [hidden]
With the popular incumbent Dr. Jim Pankiw seeking re-election I do predict a huge splitting off of former CA votes. Pankiw and Trost will duel while the NDP slips up the middle and takes the seat. Pankiw is simply too popular in this riding not to have an effect on the outcome.
31/03/04 Trent
Email: [hidden]
I disagree with the idea that Pankiw will not be a factor. First he is not a regular incumbent, "Pankiw" has in some ways become a brand of its own in this region. He has more then probably maxed out his MP advertising with pamphlets that take complicated topics and boils them down to 2 or 3 words. As a result he tends to outrage and offend many in the community giving himself even more publicity. Unfortunately as well his very simple and well publicized message (such as "Stop Indian Crime") resonates with a lot of people. Not to mention that his recent run for Saskatoon mayor in which he did relatively well helped to increase his publicity. Making him not your average incumbent. I give him at least 15% of the vote.
As well, some of the rural area has been cut out since the 2000 election. Not to mention that although small the PC vote here was more likely voting for David Orcard and are not likely to go Conservative next time. As well, I think that the Conservative/Alliance party will have to take some responsibility for giving us Pankiw in the first place.
30/03/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
With Pankiw running as a independent he won't take a major number of people from the Conservative camp. The fact that the combined numbers from the PC and Alliance party is around 48%, and the Liberal and NDP numbers put together are around 48%, there is hardly a chance this will not go back to being a Conservative seat. The Liberals in Saskatchewan lost major gains with the scandal, and won't be seeing any major gains, and the NDP might run a good campaign, but not good enough to win this seat.
29/03/04 Trent
Email: [hidden]
I think that if the Liberals are going to make gains in this province this is where they will do it. The riding did go that way in 1993, and there are a couple of good people running for the nomination. I think Pankiw will split the conservative vote enough to take them both out of it. (Unless Stevie wins Mulroney 84 big). That leaves the NDP and the Libs to duke it out. I don't think Nettie is that well known despite her run for the provincial NDP leadership, and those that do could be turned off because she comes off kinda left-wing. This leaves a good shot for the libs given the polarization on either side.
24/03/04 Brad Smith
Email: bmrsmith@hotmail.com
This will be an NDP gain. The NDP has a very strong candidate who will definitely benefit from the vote split on the right.
23/03/04 Steve Lutz
Email: [hidden]
Pretty safe one for the conservatives. Pankiw's personal support isn't nearly as high as some are making it out to be. With the CP riding high in the polls, there isn't a lot to worry about here.
17/03/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
Nettie Wiebe will take this one, unless the NDP campaign really tanks, which at this point is looking unlikely.
17/03/04 N.C.
Email: nairn@canada.com
Three factors are at play here. Recent polls have shown a strong NDP position in Saskatchewan against a soft Conservative vote. Nettie Wiebe brings personal popularity, a high-profile and a reputation to the table, and Pankiw's arrogance in running as an independent (combined with his bizarre pronouncements that were too extreme for the CA) will combined likely turn this seat over to the New Democrats.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Just to gripe over a minor point in the previous posting, Jim Pankiw won with over 5000 votes in the last election, hardly a minor victory. Granted in 1997 he won with only 220 votes (we believe the person posting was thinking of that election). In any case we are in agreement that Pankiw running as an independant will split the vote and help the NDP win. Mind you, this will not be as easy a win as in Regina-Lumsden-Lake Center for the NDP. They are going to have to keep their popularity going in order to take this one.
17/03/04 TH
Email: [hidden]
The NDP narrowly missed winning this seat in 1997 (not 2000 as stated earlier). Nettie Wiebe is well known in both Saskatoon and the surrounding rural area; this, and the combination of a higher overall vote for the NDP and Pankiw splitting the conservative vote, means that an NDP win here is the most likely result.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Too close to call for me. The NDP has quite a bit of ground to make up to win here. The former CA MP running as an independent will help for sure, but I dont know if it will be enough to carry this riding... Time will tell
Email: [hidden]
Former President of the National Farmers Union, and candidate for the Saskatchewan NDP leadership, Nettie Wiebe is the NDP candidate here. This seat was narrowly lost to Pankiw in 2000, and having been exposed for the racist bigot he is while insisting on splitting the right vote by running as an independent, it shouldn't come as a shock to see Wiebe elected the new MP.

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