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Winnipeg Centre

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
2:14 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:14 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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Anna-Celestrya Carr
Robert Eng
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Robin (Pilar) Faye
Pat Martin
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
David Northcott
Douglas Schweitzer
Parti Marijuana Party:
John Siedleski

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Winnipeg Centre (84.7%)
Pat Martin
Winnipeg North Centre (2.8%)
Judy Wasylycia-Leis
Winnipeg South Centre (12.4%)
Anita Neville

2000 Result/Résultats:
11,683 41.67%
9,621 34.31%
3,561 12.70%
2,203 7.86%
972 3.47%

Winnipeg Centre
(131/149 polls, 47041/52129 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Winnipeg North Centre
(6/162 polls, 1580/48124 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Winnipeg South Centre
(22/176 polls, 6902/60101 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Doug
Email: [hidden]
I really can't believe that anybody considers this to be a close race. The NDP will win easily. The Liberals only won this riding when there was a city-wide sweep going on. Guess what? There is no Liberal city-wide sweep happening this time. Also, you all should be aware that the Liberals are really heavy on local radio ads the last 2 days stating "a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives". Those ads (in Winnipeg at least) are aimed directly at Winnipeg South and Winnipeg South Centre which are basically Liberal vs Conservative races where the NDP has a strong 3rd place presence. In Winnipeg North and Winnipeg Centre those ads make no sense at all. I take this as acknowledgement by the Liberals that the remaining close races here are vis-a-vis the Conservatives.
24/06/04 Mark R.
Email: [hidden]
Pat will be returning as the MP. Polls show increased NDP support from 2000.
23/06/04 non partisan watcher
Email: [hidden]
Jack Layton is skipping the 'Peg in the final week. This seat is safe for the NDP, if it wasn't Layton would be there.
23/06/04 R Lennon
Email: rlennon1@hotmail.com
As a resident of this riding, it looks clear to me that Pat Martin will not only win, but win by a greater margin than in 2000. My perception is based on a number of observations. First, while I know that signs don't vote, Pat Martin has what I'd say is a 3 to 1 lead in signs throughout the riding. Second, the NDP campaign in much more visible in terms of vote and door knocking - while I've seen NDP literature and canvassers at the door, the Liberals have been relatively invisible. In 2000, I remember being bombarded by Liberal calls, canvassers, and literature. This may be a function of Glen Murray being in a tight race in another city riding and the Liberal team being strategically shifted to focus on electing the higher profile Murray rather than Northcott. Third, despite Northcott's being relatively well known in the riding, Pat Martin has been getting WAY more media coverage on the radio, on TV, and in the local papers. For the most, these have come across well and Martin has received endorsements from Aboriginal activists and leaders in the riding (which has a high Aboriginal population). Finally, I've seen Northcott in two public debates and, despite his own positive record in helping to feed underprivileged Manitobans, he was unable to very well articulate how he could make a difference in Ottawa. For these reasons, it very much looks to me that, while Northcott will place well, Pat Martin will be re-elected.
22/06/04 BR
Email: [hidden]
Northcott may have name recognition but we who live in the riding see Pat Martin everywhere - especially his signs. Pat supports the Wolseley-ites/granolas, the gays, the seniors, and especially the recent immigrants. Northcott is more of a one-issue man: "poverty" - Pat Martin will take it by a landslide.
While the race may be close I don't think it will be as close as people think. Martin has been a very succesful advocate for the people of Winnipeg Centre and while Northcott may be popular Liberals in general are not these days. Therefore, the race goes to Martin on the basis of both his personal appeal and the fact that distaste for Liberals will hurt Northcott.
21/06/04 Brian J.
Email: [hidden]
Despite the fact that Pat Martin threatened to give everyone's favourite Winnipegger a fat lip live on a radio debate, he will still win. The NDP won't lose any seats they currently hold in Manitoba.
12/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
Pat Martin survived in 2000 and the feeling here is with Liberal support falling across the country he will win by a comfortable margin this time.
08/06/04 Jon F.
Email: [hidden]
Pat Martin will retain this seat. His committee work in Ottawa has provided him a great deal of exposure, and the NDP is polling five points higher than their 2000 result in Manitoba. While the Wolseley area will vote in three directions (NDP, Lib, Green), the Downtown, North End, and Minto neighbourhoods are solidly NDP. Remember, previous "high profile" Liberal candidates in Lamoureux and Walker tried this one before, when that party actually had some momemtum, and were defeated.
28/05/04 Mark R.
Email: [hidden]
This riding is solid NDP and anyone who thinks otherwise is dreaming. The provincial NDP goverment and Gary Doer are popular. Pat is the incumbent and the NDP polling numbers are more than double from 2000. The only question is whether Pat wins with more than 50% of the vote.
If you take a look at the 2000 results even someone inept as Lamoureaux fought Pat Martin to a draw everywhere in the contituency but Wolesly. Alas, for poor Pat, Northcott is wildly popular in that area. Look for Martin to whither and Northcott to win by 500 votes.
25/05/04 J.E
Email: [hidden]
Pat Martin in the early days of the campaign has been quite succusful in getting his message out in the local media that David Northcott has left behind his past as an advocate for the poor when he joined Paul Martin and the Liberal Party. I don't think this race will be nearly as close as many belive, Pat Martin should be able to overcome this challange and get the win. One problem for the NDP might be the Green Party. If the Green Party can convince enough voters in Wolesly to forget about the NDP and cast their votes for them, than Northcott could emerge with a victory, but I think Pat Martin and his team will make it quite clear at the door that a vote for the Greens is a vote for Paul Martin and the Liberals.
25/05/04 Rob
Email: [hidden]
I feel bad for David Northcott. In any of the preceding elections, a candidate of his caliber would have won this hands down for the Liberals. He's an outstanding individual with a great track record. On the other hand, Pat Martin comes across as somewhat cold and aloof, making him vulnerable.
However, everything changed when Liberal polling numbers went south. As such, while Northcott may well close the gap between the Liberals and the NDP in this riding in spite of the nation wide trent of lower liberal popularity, I can't see him knocking off Martin this time around. Maybe next time.
19/05/04 MD
Email: [hidden]
I have, in a past life, campaigned with Kevin, and can tell you he is not that great at the door. He only won his provincial seat because the NDP did not run a Pilipino against him. Northcott is a much better candidate who stands a much greater shot at winning, although Martin maybe able to pull it off. For now this is too close to call.
NDP is not up in Manitoba. According to the latest Ipsos-Reid polls they are in third place.
19/05/04 Political Advisor
Email: [hidden]
I don't understand TCTC (too close too call) in this riding. NDP do a very good performance in Manitoba, with a NDP government. If Martin was elected at 8%... he will be elected with a NDP at 18-20%.
13/05/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The NDP is up in the polls in Manitoba, as well, Pat Martin spends most of his time and efforts in his home riding. He should win again easily, despite the lack of a national profile.
11/05/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
NDP no-brainer. This seat went NDP in 1997 and 2000 when the national NDP had catastrophically bad results with 11% and 8% respectively. With the NDP vote set to double this time to at least 17% any riding that went NDP in 2000 will go NDP by a wide margin this time. On top of that Pat Martin has had a very high profile over the past couple of years. I predict he will win by about a 2-1 margin.
10/05/04 Jacob
NDP human resources in Manitoba are being spread really in this election, due to strong challengers against Pat Martin, Judy WL and Bev Desjardlais plus a possible winable seat in Selkirk-Interlake. David Northcott has a great team behind him and he is by all accounts a star candidate with tons of credentials in Winnipeg's core. He will likely prevail.
07/05/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
Liberals hoping that Glen Murray's entry into federal politics will give Northcott a bounce will probably be disappointed. For one thing, Murray will have his hands full just trying to win his own seat and won't have time to help out any other Liberals, and if his campaign starts to stall the opposite might end up true. Add the fact that the Manitoba NDP is going to investing major resources to ensure that Pat Martin and Judy W-L are re-elected and Martin's growing public profile, and I think an NDP victory here is all but certain.
07/05/04 Brian F
Email: [hidden]
If Pat Martin can beat Kevin Lamoureux in 2000, a very effective campaigner, who suprised many by winning the provincial riding of Inkster in 03 during the NDP sweep, then Northcott isn't going to pose too much of a problem particularly given the NDP's rise in support.
28/04/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com

Martin won by almost 2000 votes in 2000. With the polls for the NDP being up that has to mean at least a 1000 vote or so gain. So even if the other parties run strong campaigns with good candidates there is no real reason to think that Martin will lose this seat.
24/03/04 MD
Email: [hidden]
This one will be close. Pat Martin has gotten a lot of air time lately, and always in a good way it seems. David Northcott is a much better candidate then Kevin Lamoureux was, and although I am not sure what part of South Center is picked up this time around it should help Northcott out a lot. Mr. Northcott is a man who has done wonderful things for the people of Winnipeg and this area in particular. If the election comes down to the merit of local candidates Northcott will win. However the national leaders, recent scandals, and media profile of Pat Martin might keep this for the NDP.
24/03/04 Brad Smith
Email: bmrsmith@hotmail.com
Just like last time, this one is not too close to call Assuming Pat Martin's campaign is solid, like last time, he will take this riding once again, probably by a similar margin. I wouldn't consider anything Charles Adler has to say about this race as Gospel, instead I'd get the salt.
24/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Alot of people predicted Pat Martin's downfall in 2000. Now that the NDP are doing twice as well in the polls and the Liberals are going seemingly nowhere with scandal after scandal, we find it hard to forsee a Liberal gain here.
19/03/04 Greg K.
Email: [hidden]
Martin should hold on to his seat. Northcott is going to be a tough competitor but Martin's recent visibility as chief Liberal sponsorship scandal critic coupled with his increasing electoral support, will do the trick.
18/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
I think it's a bit presumptuous to say that Pat Martin 'loves' David Northcott. Respects him, maybe.
As for media coverage of Northcott's candidacy - it's hardly been all positive. Sun columnist Tom Brodbeck excoriated Northcott on March 6 for opportunistically joining the Liberals and trying to disassociate himself from Sponsorgate. Brodbeck suggested that if Northcott really wanted to make a difference in on-the-ground poverty issues, he'd have joined the provincial NDP. I find myself (for once) agreeing with Brodbeck - one would think that if Northcott was a really principled guy, he'd think twice about joining a party that has slashed social spending ever since coming into office and undoubtedly increased his clientele at the food bank.
That being said, Northcott will be a formidable candidate and I suspect the NDP will be forced to keep a lot more resources in Winnipeg Centre than they otherwise might have. Still, Kevin Lamoureux was no slouch candidate in the last election and NDP numbers have pretty much doubled since then. I'm predicting Pat to hang on in a close one.
17/03/04 Jacob
Email: [hidden]
Have you guys not heard of Mr. Foodbank David Northcott? The man is the guru behind Winnipeg's successful foodbank. As Charles Adler said, while Pat Martin was in Ottawa talking about poor people, David Northcott was feeding him. He is a media darling, everybody loves him, including his opponent Pat Martin. I see this as going Liberal.
16/03/04 Thorfinn
Email: [hidden]
If he gets the Liberal nomination, then food back guru David Northcott is likely to end up being remembered not so much for his social activism as his extraordinarily bad timing and political judgement. This is not the time to be coming out as a Liberal in western Canada, and certainly not against an incumbent that has really come into his own as an MP this past parliament. Pat Martin will defeat him soundly.
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals don't even have a candidate here yet, and we're supposed to believe that this is a tossup. This is rediculous. It's unlikely Glen Murray will be taking on Pat Martin, and it's unlikelier still that anyone but Murray could defeat Pat for the Liberals.
01/03/04 Patrick Webber
2000 was supposed to be the fight of NDP incumbent Pat Martin's political life, and he won with a 1,900 vote margin over the Liberals, about 1,000 more than his first win in 1997. Martin has been one of the New Democrats' most high profile MPs in the last year, and should have no difficulty winning this seat.

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