Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
7:44 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:17 PM 6/11/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
PC Party/Parti PC:
Dorian Baxter
Ed Chudak
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Martha Hall Findlay
Belinda Stronach
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Daryl Wyatt

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Vaughan-King-Aurora (38.6%)
Hon. Maurizio Bevilacqua
York North (61.4%)
Karen Kraft Sloan

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,407 50.56%
9,112 22.58%
8,988 22.27%
1,513 3.75%
342 0.85%

(63/215 polls, 27241/98722 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

York North
(102/220 polls, 43373/85188 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
23/06/04 Jason
Email: x_quoth_the_raven_nevermore_x@hotmail.com
This riding will go to Belinda.
The redistribution of 2004 that created the riding of Newmarket-Aurora amalgamated two of the most affluent towns in Ontario into a Tory shoe-in. Not to mention, Stronach's impressive showing for Tory leadership, not to say that her results were impressive, rather, the sheer attention she gathered, made her into one of those "star candidates". Karen Kraft Sloan, former MP for York North at least had a solid reputation for being outspoken on the environment. The current Liberal unknown won't have a chance.
But let's look at the raw data:
The strong showing of the PCs in old York North during the 2000 election showed that there was a definite strain of Red Toryism. Although I know Mr. Baxter (PC candidate) personally and have nothing but respect and admiration for him, his claim to be the true successor to the former Progressive Conservatives is thwarted by Ms. Stronach's socially leftist stance. Former PC voters, and angry former Liberals have a commonground in Belinda, I think. Oh, and then there's that faction of old Alliance-Reform voters who have no real choice but to vote Conservative.
Belinda's a fiscally common-sense woman, with a ballsy stance on gay marriage and abortion rights, and that's going to make her that much more appealing. Voters afraid of those old Reform-Alliance artifacts (ie Myron Thompson, Stockwell Day et al) will feel comfortable knowing that there's going to be at least one Tory who will challenge the traditional Conservative philosophy on such controversial issues.
17/06/04 Boag
Email: [hidden]
Actually, that recent story was based on a poll done before the election. I have it on good authority that Belinda is barely ahead and scared of the PC candidate - who is the only one opposing same-sex marriage and thus guaranteeing himself 5-10% of the vote. I would still leave it as too close to call.
12/06/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Key ridings were polled recently (including this one) and Ms. Stronach had a 29 point lead over the Liberals (59% vs 30%). Welcome to Ottawa, Belinda!
10/06/04 Don Kearney
Email: donk@egale.ca
I have to agree that Belinda will win this riding hands-down. My parents live in the riding and while I was visiting them last week, I noticed a sea of blue signs in the area. In fact, I then drove to Guelph after that (scene of the infamous "beat-up gays at the Conservative rally" incident) and all along Hwy 9, it was a sea of blue with the odd Liberal and NDP sign. I have to say that both the Libs and NPD'ers are slow off the mark in the 905 region and the Cons are much more organized this time (hence their gains in the 905). I'm not a Conservative by any means but Newmarket-Aurora will go to Belinda
10/06/04 Stevo
Good move by the site admin to call this one for the Tories. A recent COMPAS poll of the riding shows Belinda with an incredible 29 percentage points ahead of her Liberal rival (59% vs. 30%). It's clear that she's going to win and win big, and this will represent a major coup for the new Conservatives as this will likely be the closest riding to the Liberal fortress of Toronto that will be won by the Tories.
10/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
According to the COMPASS poll for this riding released today, Belinda Stronach has a 29 point lead over the Liberals! Belinda is on her way to Parliament unless there is a major change in the next week and a half.
10/06/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
A new poll was taken by COMPASS for this riding and guess who came out the winner? None other than Belinda Stronach.... by almost 30 points! Yep, Belinda has just under 60% support in this riding, and even if she wouldn't run, the riding still would go Conservative with just over 50% support, according to the poll. I think it's time to finally change this prediction, with the Conservatives closing in on the 35-40% mark, this is CERTAIN to go Conservative.
10/06/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
Statistical confirmation is in.
According to today's National Post/Global COMPAS Poll:
Stronach 59
Findley 30
Chudak 8
Interestingly enough, and what makes this poll even more conclusive, is that 54% of respondents indicated that they would vote for the CPC even if Belinda wasn't the candidate in Newmarket Aurora. Conversely, the study showed that if the Liberals nominated a new and totally unknown candidate to take Findley's place, they would actually PICK UP 4%.
The outcome here is now a virtual certainty.
10/06/04 Thomas Cranmer
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
This riding is going Conservative. Based on a COMPAS poll in today's National Post (June 11, 2004) of 12 key ridings, Belinda has a commanding 29% lead on Findlay. Across the country some of the current Tory momentum will indeed swing back to the Liberals, but the lead is so formidable in Newmarket-Aurora that one can confidently predict a Stronach gain.
10/06/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
The Compas poll looking at key ridings has this to say about Newmarket-Aurora:
"Conservative party candidate Belinda Stronach is expected to win an absolute majority of the vote, according to a COMPAS riding poll (n=300) conducted for the National Post, Global Television and other CanWest newspapers. Belinda Stronach garners a commanding 59% of the decided vote, followed distantly by Liberal candidate Martha Hall Findlay at 30%, as shown in table 1."
Even if the conservative campaign somehow melted down before election day, that's not going to stop Belinda from winning. Time for a conservative call here.
10/06/04 pundit
Email: [hidden]
Global TV poll tonight:
Stronach: 59%
Hall Findlay: 30%
Time to colour this one blue.
10/06/04 Margaret
Email: [hidden]
I am predicting a Liberal win in Newmarket-Aurora, albeit by a very small margin.
The heavy presence of Conservative signs may just be a reflection of the 'fed up' voters publicizing their disgust with the Liberals, while those who intend to vote Liberal will quietly hide their support until they mark the ballot. Who wants to advertise they are a Liberal after the sponsorship scandal?
In addition, we have a Progressive Conservative candidate running, and the last election had a 50-50 conservative split. There may be enough people confused by Conservative vs. Progressive Conservative to split the C's again.
One thing is certain, with a new riding and new candidates, its going to be an interesting one to watch!
10/06/04 Pro-Martha
Email: [hidden]
Let's get superficial for an instant: I saw Martha at the Aurora GO train station today (6:00am June 10). Let me tell you, on a Babe-O-Meter, Martha is a 10. She has a radiant smile, unlike the Mona Lisa of Aurora. She looks genuine and has a warm laugh. Those pictures on her literature don't do her justice. Now back to real campaign issues ;-)
08/06/04 GC
Email: [hidden]
From election lawn signs, Stronach will almost definitely take the riding, followed closely by Amrac Paving. The Conservatives seem to be putting much resources into this riding: I've been polled twice by them, and a Conservative rep. also showed up at my door. I've thus far had no contact from the Liberals: I'm not sure whether it's for a lack of resources, or that they've ceded the riding.
06/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
I call this one for Belinda. Why?
1. she's got business background that is very hard to replace - she'd be a very viable Industry or Trade minister
2. her father being a longtime Liberal, she has ties even in that power camp
3. sheer money: she'll spend the maximum on her campaign, and that's on top of her publicity in the national leadership run for the Conservative leadership
4. she's socially liberal and will keep the Red Tories in line - the "Progressive Canadian" in this riding is basically a joke candidate
5. personally I find her engaging and open, much more so than almost any other politician, and she might become one of the few honest MPs in Ottawa
6. everyone knows she's not in it for the pension
7. people wanting to moderate the social views of the new Conservatives will want Belinda in their caucus
05/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
One things to consider 1) Part of this riding was won by the Liberals due to right-wing vote splitting 2)The Conservatives and Liberals are deadlocked in the polls in ontario right now. 3) You have a high profile CPC candidate against a relatively unknown Liberal candidate. Yep, I say this one is going Conservative.
05/06/04 Jon F.
Email: [hidden]
I don't know how this seat can be considered "too close to call". Belinda Stronach is a star-candidate running in the traditionally right-leaning 905 region for a Conservative party that is leading/tied for the lead in Ontario. Further, the overwhelming majority of postings for this riding predict her victory. This seems to be the most bizarre part of the curious prediction by site administrators that has the CPC with only 8 seats yet "secure" in Ontario to the Liberals 49.
02/06/04 Evan
Email: evan_coole@hotmail.com
Liberal support is down, NDP support is up and considering the national attention Belinda Stronach received when she ran for leadership, it would be nearly impossible for her not to win.
29/05/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
A lot of people are saying Belinda doesn't connect with voters here. Well Hall Findlay is also a business woman and I don't expect her to do that any better. Sure, Hall Findlay is more of a "Blue Liberal" but Stronach is more of a "Red Tory". Her father (Frank Stronach) was a Liberal candidate in 1988 afterall, and remember her leadership platform...it was more PROGRESSIVE Conservative (no cuts to social spending but bake a bigger economic pie), getting the backing of the left side of existing Tory MPs. So if there is any real difference between these two candidates, it does come back to Stronach's stardom and the fact her company, unlike Martha's, gave area residents jobs.
26/05/04 Aqua velvet
Email: [hidden]
I don't think this one should be called for Belinda Stronach just yet. The Stronach name and the profile that she developed during her leadership campaign cuts both ways. There are as many negatives as positives attached to the Stronach family around here (and as many people to vote specifically _against_ a Stronach as likely to come out and vote specificaly for one, and let's face it, BS came off like a bubbleheaded lightweight as often as she did as ready-for-prime-time when she ran for tory leader. Her second place showing in that race was as much a testimony to her family money and the bad judgment of a lot of old time tory operators as it was of any genuine political viability that she possesses. I'd guess a comfortable Liberal win.
26/05/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
I'm usually the cautious, wait-and-see type, especially only three days into the campaign... but you can go ahead and punch Belinda's ticket to the big dance EP.
As long as she doesn't start reading her own press, and continues to show the earnest desire to improve that she showed during the leadership race, the people of Newmarket-Aurora will fall all over themselves to vote for a member who will be a senior party magnate (I know. Bad joke.) come July.
As for the point made about the people of Aurora hating the Stronachs (which, although having a ring of truth to it, sounds a little too much like a synopsis of "Roger and Me" for my taste)... it'll be interesting to see which is the more potent political force: The blue-collar Aurora workers who will do anything to keep a Stronach out of Ottawa, or the Magna board members who are prepared (as I understand it) to do anything to keep her from coming back to the boardroom.
Money talks. Liberals walk in Newmarket-Aurora.
25/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Well, for proof that oodles of mazuma won't buy you a seat, take note of Magna Spice's pop when he ran for the Liberals in '88, or Michael Huffington's bid for the U.S. Senate in '94, etc. Belinda may *look* lustrous (or at least like a simulacra of luster), but the same issues that dogged her leadership campaign promise to dog her Newmarket-Aurora campaign, i.e. the notion that she's all Potemkin, or Gertrude Stein's Oakland, ad infinitum, and if she loses she'll default back into managing Magna, Daddy Moneybags guarantees it, bla bla bla. (And re Belinda as "devoted mother": sheesh, her children were pathologically *invisible* when she was running for the party leadership.) Yes, there's the possibility that some guys will vote with their crotch once Amber Dempsey flutters her eyelashes and turns'em all into quivering Bill Clinton jello--but don't think there won't be plenty who'll *refuse* to vote for her for that very reason. Look--the Magna Tarta barely won her own party nomination. And N-A is a (sub)urban riding, i.e. moderate and more Liberal-congenial (or Harper-uncongenial) than many are willing to consider. Voters aren't dolts; they can tell a Navratilova from a Kournikova. On the other hand, if the Liberals are really tanking, none of this matters; and besides, airheadedness never stopped Stockwell Day from personal victory...
25/05/04 Peter Mc
Email: [hidden]
Yes this is a riding that is on the bubble. Yes it bucked the trend and went Tory in the provincial election. Yes, it is a pity that Karen K-S isn't running again (very popular, great environmentalist). But if there is one thing that the denizens of Newmarket-Aurora hate more than a socialist, it is a Stronach. The Stronach dynasty owns practically half the town of Aurora and a good chunk of Newmarket too. The have the local politicians well in their pocket (As witnessed by the Mayor of Aurora showing up at Belinda's campaign launch). Papa Frank ran in 1988 on the Liberal (can you believe it?) anti-Free-Trade/Turner ticket and was the only Liberal in York Region to lose.....badly. The Stronach name is anathema. Who wants your boss to be your MP? The papers were rife with stories of him trying to buy himself a seat. I suspect the same backlash against Belinda's name and staggering wealth will ensue. Doesn't matter how hot she is. Doesn't even matter who the Liberal candidate is. Belinda will be embarrassed (again) on election night.
24/05/04 Colin B.
Email: colinbaras@yahoo.com
I like how people think that because a well known candidate is brought in, she will win... ummmm, no. Believe it or not voters are intelligent and they know when someone is out of their league. If Belinda showed anything during her leadership bid it was that she isn't ready to play with the big boys and girls. Her public speeking skills STILL lack after a leadershp contest, he knowledge on important issues is STILL limited, and she just can't seem to understand that while she was a great company offcial (in fact I admire here for that work) she isn't a politician. It reminds me of university... I have no doubt that my profs are the smartest people in their fields of study, but some can't teach worth a damn!
23/05/04 Mike
Email: [hidden]
If the COMPASS Poll results hold during the election (Conservatives: 39% in Ont), even if the Ipsos-Reid results hold (Conservative 28% in Ontario), Belinda is on her way to Ottawa. She sure has had the media coverage and to say that she hasn't been canvassing in the riding is absolutely false. I mean, the election is to be called tomorrow, and already i saw a few people putting up her signs on houses' lawns (is that legal?) No matter if it is legal or not, Belinda has too much glamour, attention, money and credability to lose this seat to a relative unknown. I say, that if the Conservatives pick up at least b25% in Ontario, this is a Conservative hold
23/05/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
J. don't forget however that the Alliance Western Canadian type of Conservatives is hardly dominant in Ontario where the PC Party side of the new Conservative party won most of the nominations ( some of them after some major mudslinging ), She'll have a full control of her riding association very soon given a huge number of the new members she can attract that will marginalize *Harper-ites* in Newmarket-Aurora. Nationwide, I won't even mention the Maritimes and Quebec where Belinda is overwhelmingly more popular than Harper. I think she is the light of hope for the New Conservative party and certainly one of their best candidates nationwide. ( Not that this is saying much ), she has the ca$h, corporate experience, personal popularity ( yes, she is especially liked by young men like me! ), she is very centrist socially but on the right wing economically, which is always an advantage in a suburban riding like this one where people are usually focused more on economic than social issues. Having said that, the Liberals have also an excellent canidate and I think people underesimate Martha a lot, the Liberal establishment in this riding chose very wisely and they really couldn't have got a better candidate but they knew they'd have to be competitive and here they are.. Martha is an experienced businesswoman too. Given Belinda's popularity she still has an advantage because people in this riding will vote for a candidate and not necessarily for the right wing leader of the Conservative party. It'll be close though!
19/05/04 J Poole
As a Conservative I supported Stronach in the leadership race. One thing that never got much attention was how much some Alliance members had a serious hate on for her. Many Party members saw her as an intruder, and many were bitterly opposed to her nomination here. As the election wears on it will be increasingly clear that another Conservative leadership race is in the not so distant future and a drive within the Party to finish her off now. There is going to be a whole lot of backstabbing before this race is over.
17/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Just to back up Sterwart's comment about Belinda's sex appeal, Bear's roommate comes from Aurora and plans to vote for her. When we asked what he liked about her, he had this to say: "She's well known around Aurora, she's done well running that company of hers...besides...she's hot!"
We're certain there are many other late teen/twenty-something guys who'll vote for her solely on that.
17/05/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
I have to agree with Grant on this one. If only 1/10 of the people who worked on Belinda's leadership campaign work on her constituency campaign then she will win handily. Name recognition, strong campaign team, and money, money, money can win almost any riding in Canada.
17/05/04 Thomas Cranmer
Email: Letstalk@sympatico.ca
Belinda has the resources to buy this seat. Tory gain.
15/05/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Belinda will be going to Ottawa but Tony Clement will not. Undecided voters will want a front bench Tory instead of a back bench Liberal. Findlay may be a successful business woman too, but Stronach has been rated the most powerful business woman in Canada...so she wins that fight. Even though how stupid this sounds, her sex appeal is going to get her a lot of votes from younger and male voters. Had it been an average Joe Schmoe, I'd say Findlay would take this seat, but not against Belinda.
13/05/04 C.E.
Email: [hidden]
I'm no political expert but I'm willing to bet that the candidate that works harder has a better chance of winning. All I know is that Martha Hall Findlay has already knocked on my door, I have trouble believing that Belinda Stronach will come to my house.
07/05/04 Stevo
The Tories are going to go all out to win this riding, and not just because leadership candidate Belinda Stronach is running. A win in Newmarket, in the heart of affluent York Region, is critical to the party's hopes of gaining a foothold with the 905 soccer moms that put Mike Harris in power two elections in a row (though who subsequently dispatched his successor Ernie Eves).
Belinda is likeable, well-known, and moderate. Her double-angle of devoted mother and successful businesswoman should play very well here. Not a sure thing, and it will be very close, but I'm predicting a Conservative gain here.
28/04/04 PFR
Email: [hidden]
Belinda Stronich has the money and the organization to paint this riding blue. The Liberals have been spending so much time posting rumours of her withdrawing her name from the ballet because they know that they can't beat her.
26/04/04 Grant
Email: grantramcgill@yahoo.ca
(1) A 5% spread between the PC/CA and the Grits in 2000. Yes, I know the combined PC/CA vote nationally back then is lower than it is right now. And yes, you can't add up the two parties and expect each and every voter to vote CPC this time around...but are all those PC voters going Liberal? Are they staying home? Does it matter when...
(2) You have a candidate whose has developed a huge profile because of her entry into her party's leadership contest. This isn't some Tory drone that's being slotted into place here, and the Liberals have the disadvantage of running a rookie candidate...faithfulness, commitment and honour aside. That doesn't help.
(3) Do you think that, even if Belinda gets into the trouble, the CPC establishment is going to see the second place candidate in their founding leadership race go down in flames? Would her campaign infastructure atrophy that badly after the CPC leadership race? And how would Harper explain that the morning after? Look for resources galore to be pumped in this neck of the woods, if it's ever needed.
(4) Though it's statisically insignifcant even here, vis-a-vis who will win this riding, consider the possibility of a resurgent NDP polling at almost twice what they had in 2000.
In my riding of Etobicoke Centre in the last provincial election, the NDP candidate (who had no chance in hell of winning) went from 2% to 7% when the NDP vote increased by 25%. No, they won't be singing the Internationale in Newmarket, but if the raw PC/CA redistricted vote would give the Liberals only a margin of victory of 1407 votes, that doesn't leave the Grits with oodles of room. One or two percentage points (which is all I think the NDP will pick up anyway, if that) could make a great deal of difference. And those new NDP votes won't be coming from the Alliance.
Colour this one blue. And start drafting tasteless Bill Clinton jokes, lord knows Frank magazine already is.
23/04/04 initial
Three reasons1) strong conservative candidate2) the allianciste and progressiste conservative had 44% put together in 2000's election3) People in this riding would rather prefer Belinda than Backbencher liberal, espicially that Mc Guilty goverment is not so popular and the commandites messup
17/04/04 RJ
Email: [hidden]
Martha Hall Findlay will be the next MP. She is a very successful businesswoman and lawyer. The residents of Newmarket and Aurora, and not the Magna shareholders, will be choosing their next representative. They will choose Martha, someone committed to the region, to the country, and to public service for the long-term. Martha will carry on the fine tradition of the retiring MP, Karen Kraft Sloan, and serve her constituents faithfully and with honour. I predict a Liberal victory.
14/04/04 Alex
Email: [hidden]
Belinda will almost certainly be one of the top-ranking members in the party, even after her leadership loss, and this isn't a particularly solid Liberal seat, even if it was a nobody running. Belinda should win pretty easily.
18/04/04 J Cherniak
Email: [hidden]
You know, Ontarians have a habit of beating strong local candidates with their preference for leader. Remeber General Lewis MacKenzie? I expect Belinda to lose and return to Magna.
09/04/04 KPC Email: [hidden]

Belinda will win this riding. The joint vote is within striking distance. She will not be short of volunteers and funds. Part of her riding is represented provincially by the Conservatives and the Conservatives will own everything north of Newmarket Aurora (York Simcoe, Simcoe North, Simcoe Grey, Barrie, Parry Sound, Caledon etc...) So, she is on the cusp of Tory Country. That compounded with her personal strenght will win this riding for the Conservatives.
25/03/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
I'd be surprised if Belinda doesn't win, wither her very high profile and organization. The fact the possible liberal candidate dropped out over the sponsorship scandal helps her as well. actually, If she doesn't win, it would be a bad sign for her or the new conservative party, that either one has not been accepted by a lot voters...
20/03/04 Adam B.
Email: polski_69@hotmail.com
Belinda will definately be seeking a cabinet post, and will spring to that from Aurora. I have no doubt she will take this riding, with her large campaign network transferring to a small riding, as well as a lot of personal support from members of the party, she stands as one of the moderate social voices left in the party. I think many will rally behind her to make sure she can voice those opinions in the house. It will be a hard campaign no doubt, but she can do it.
18/03/04 syllap
Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com
Belinda will of course win her riding even if she is not leader, the Liberal candidate is already gone....doesn't look too good for the Lib's here.....
17/03/04 D. Ross
Email: [hidden]
Belinda Stronach has brought, and will continue to bring, the people of Newmarket-Aurora a lot of exciting and innovative ideas regardless of whether or not she is crowned leader of the CPC. Since there was already a significant amount of conservative supporters in this area during the previous election (approx. 40% in 2000), this riding would probably go Conservative even if Belinda were not running. Belinda will retain these conservative votes and her national image will enable her to attract enough new voters to win herself a seat in Ottawa.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: radams2@uwo.ca
The Liberals are not running an incumbant MP and their original candidate has quit. This makes things a lot easier for Stronach.
16/03/04 RWA
The Liberal vote of 2000 is only about 5-6% ahead of the combined conservative vote. Belinda Stronach as a star candidate may be able to make up that ground.
17/03/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
I doubt that Belinda is going to run if she lose the leadership, and the Liberal can very well retain the seat facing a last minute replacement.
16/03/04 905er
Belinda has simply had too much coverage and has too much money to loose this race. The real clincher was the Liberal candidate tossing in the towel leaving the whole thing in a real mess. This new riding will be a win for the Conservatives.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster