Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Kingston and the Islands
Kingston et les Îles

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:55 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:46 PM 18/03/2004

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Rosie The Clown Elston
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Janina Fisher Balfour
Rob Hutchison
Blair MacLean
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Terry Marshall
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Peter Milliken
Canadian Action canadienne:
Don Rogers
Karl Walker

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington (1.9%)
Larry McCormick
Kingston and the Islands (98.1%)
Hon. Peter Milliken

2000 Result/Résultats:
26,551 51.65%
9,300 18.09%
7,965 15.50%
4,939 9.61%
2,648 5.15%

Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
(7/221 polls, 1680/71031 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Kingston and the Islands
(259/259 polls, 86903/86903 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Kingston and the Islands had the Speaker of the House, who made a very controversial vote there, as their MP in Liberal Peter Milliken, not that there's anything wrong with it, but the Thousands don't like their Member's standing against the majority's common sense choice on the issue. Against Flora MacDonald's best judgement but perhaps for John A.'s, Tory Blair MacLean will be easily selected as the next representative unless all the Birds in the Pen decide to call Kingston and the Islands home to vote. Look for Don Cherry to be just happy and gay over the election of MacLean and the defeat of Milliken so much so that he starts a new segment on Politics called Politican's Corner.
23/06/04 W. Betanko
Email: [hidden]
As others have noted, this riding should be easy pickings for Miliken albeit some signs indicate that this could be close. The Tories seem to think they have a shot as they have been flooding the local airwaves with radio advertising for the last week or so. This could be sound long-term thinking because even if they lose this riding, if they make it close, the momentum could be valuable for winning the next election which will likely follow within the next year.
The relatively strong organization of the Greens in this riding (they've been far better organized than the NDP) combined with a bit of momentum from the provincial election could see them earn close to 10% of the votes cast. That said, protest voters in this riding have a couple places to go, including Rosie the Clown (no kidding) so that can't help...
18/06/04 Bryan Cook
Email: bmxbboy@yahoo.com
This election seems to be about change and people getting tired. I am sure Peter Milliken is popular in Kingston and the Islands, but people don't like Paul Martin. People in Kingston liked Flora MacDonald, but didn't like Brian Mulroney. This is not a sure bet for the Conservatives and it will take a lot of hard work, but I dont think this is quite a solid Liberal riding as many many think. This could turn Tory Blue. Kingstonians do surprise people. I am sayin too close to call with perhaps a small Liberal edge. But come election day, I think they might b part of the Tory Wave.
17/06/04 Max Power
Email: [hidden]
The will is there in the community to replace Peter Milliken, yet sadly the person to do it is not. Despite Lobbyist's opinion, Don Cherry would have won this riding. Instead, the CPC is running possibly the only politically-minded person in Kingston with less charisma than Milliken and whose only message is anti-Paul Martin. Unfortunately, it does appear that conservative hope here was abandonned long ago as MacLean is just not a candidate who can win. There's nothing about him that says "vote for me", and as much the anti-Liberal sentiment is growing across the province you need to have something voters can get behind if you're going to replace a long serving MP who is well known and respected in the community. A campaign of "change for change's sake", which the conservatives seem to be offering here, won't get it done.
17/06/04 mhr
Email: [hidden]
I am surprised that the conservatives are suing the name of Flora MacDonald. I will be surprised if Flora votes for the current Conservative Party headed by Mr Harper. For whatever reason, Peter is still popular in Kignston and is likely to win the next election.
15/06/04 finois
Email: [hidden]
Things are getting very strange here. I see a lot of NDP signs and i know everyone considers this a Liberal Lock. But i am starting to see some of the same conditions at play that took this city NDP in the rae years.
This city has a lot of potential ndp voters if the liberals stay home.
Still see this as Liberal but i don't know if it is a lock anymore....
09/06/04 Leftie
Email: [hidden]
A hugely popular MP holding a non-partisan position in the House, Peter is likely to give the Liberals one of the biggest margins of victory in Eastern Ontario. Kingston, with a business-minded mayor shoving his agenda down everyone's throat, is unlikely to elect a right-winger to the Commons.
30/05/04 Marvin the Martian
Email: [hidden]
Gosh, what long memories Tories have ... bringing up the ghost of Flora MacDonald. But the example proves the opposite point. When Flora ruled this riding, she did so though the sheer force of her own personality. The federal leadership of the party she represented didn't matter. What makes Kingston such an interesting riding is exactly that -- it's one of the few places in Ontario that will buck the Liberal slide simply because Peter is so personally (and inexplicably) popular. Local politics matter here. That, and there are a LARGE number of people here who work for government in one capacity or the other. Let's not forget they're in no hurry to elect a slash-and-burn Harper government seemingly bent on such things as privatizing federal jails and slashing health care (though maybe the cash-starved folks at CFB Kingston and RMC might swing Tory).
28/05/04 R.C
Email: [hidden]
The Greens captured 6.55% of the 2003 provincial vote, one of their best results in any constituency. It should be interesting how they fare federally. I think Miliken's time has come and gone. The Conservatives will win this one
27/05/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
If Peter Milliken killed Ryan Malcolm with his bare hands on the steps of Kingston City Hall... during a church holiday... using a stone taken from the increasingly decrepit Fort Henry... he would still win this riding by 15-20% on June 28th.
If you want proof that the CPC has written this riding off, consider this:
Even though Maclean had already been campaigning in the community for months, the party leadership, in a very public way, courted Don Cherry to carry the banner in his old hometown. Wisely, Don said no.
It's a shame, because Blair is a great guy who would be the ultimate constituency-focused MP for the city, but Peter will return to Ottawa.
27/05/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Mister Speaker, we seem to have a Conservative supporter who is rather confused as to the difference between Kingston and other places in Eastern Ontario. Allow us to clairify: Kingston = urban, other places = rural. Kingston = solidly liberal, other places = more conservative. Eastern Ontario will get alot of attention for the Conservatives but you can bet that Kingston will be largely over looked by the Conservatives. They're not going to waste resources on ridings where they garneshed (collectively) under 35%, when neighbouring ridings are ripe for the picking. Look for Harper's campaign bus to stop to fill up for gas (and maybe Harper will get a bite to eat at one of the many resturants just off the 401 exits) in between travelling from Leeds-Grenville and Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington.
25/05/04 World Champion of Frontenac County
This one will be close, but I am predicting a slim Conservative win. While this riding has a strong affinity for electing Grits, if there is a large swing nationally then this riding could fall. Keep in mind that this was Flora MacDonald's kingdom for a number of years.
But in this election the local campaign matters as well, and I must say that I am impressed with the work of the MacLean campaign so far. They have good sign coverage in the city, and look far more organised than the embarrassing Hans Westerberg provincial Tory campaign in 2003.
In addition, Milliken's refusal to campaign on "national issues" could spell his downfall. The Whig-Standard has pounced on this, and so have his opponents. If he even bothers showing up to the all-candidates' debates, and tries to dodge questions on the sponsorship scandal or other salient concerns of voters by cloaking himself in non-partisanship, he's euchred.
Couple all of this with the Tories' focus on Eastern Ontario, and you could very well see K&I sending Blair MacLean to Parliament, albeit by only a few hundred votes.
19/05/04 DJ
Email: [hidden]
As much as I hate to admit it, Milliken is pretty damn safe. People in Kingston love the guy - not sure why 'cause he hasn't done a damn thing for the city - so barring a drunk driving incident or psychotic episode, Peter will be returning to Ottawa.
As an aside, Kingston could become the permanent home (well, for 5 - 15 years at the very least) for current Liberals. ;)
But back to the topic at hand, I don't think the Green leader running in Kingston would be any more wise than their current riding. As left as some university and college folks may be, A) they don't tend to vote, and B) most won't be in Kingston in June.
17/05/04 Price
Email: [hidden]
I agree with the poster who wrote that this is a riding where Joe Clark's call for homeless red tories to reluctantly support the Martinite Liberal party will resonate. Kingston and environs has always been prototypical red tory country anyway, and since 1988 has drifted slowly but surely toward becoming a "natural" Liberal riding at all levels of government. An entrenched incumbent should make this even safer for the Liberals.
01/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Now, if there's anyplace where ex-PCs are likely to heed the grudging Martinward call of Joe Clark, it's in the natural home of the Red Tory, Kingston. Of course, the ex-PCers might go even further left, as there's an inherently strong college-town creative-class NDP/Green base--indeed, if the Green leader wanted to prove a we're-electable-too point, he should have run in Kingston against the Speaker rather than in Toronto-Danforth against the NDP leader. But hey, it *is* the Speaker of the House. And if there's anybody immune to rumours about Liberal corruption (as opposed to eternal Frank-universe rumours about sexual orientation), it ought to be the Speaker of the House...
01/05/04 M.C.
Email: [hidden]
Peter Milliken is quite possibly the most popular Speaker to ever sit in the House of Commons. His constituents love him, Members of Parliament love him. He was elected Speaker by the largest margin in history. As Speaker he’s non-partisan so you can’t even try and tar him with the Liberal record. In the 2000 election the Conservatives tried personal attacks and that got them nowhere. This time around I think Milliken will probably finish with over 60% of the vote. The Green Party will also probably have a strong showing as this is one of their strongest ridings outside of BC.
27/03/04 John Mould
Email: [hidden]
Peter Milliken is hugely popular, and is in no danger. He would likely survive even a 1984-esque Conservative sweep. Blair MacLean, the Conservative candidate who ran as a PC in 2000, generally campaigns by attacking Milliken. Milliken said he would vote against same sex-marriage in a tie because it is the role of the Speaker to preserve the status quo. In a press release, MacLean said "Peter fails his constituents when he manipulates his position as Speaker to hide his stand on the same-sex marriage issue." This riding will stay Liberal, no doubt about it.
24/03/04 Todd S.
Email: [hidden]
Unless incument MP and House speaker Peter Milliken is convicted of a crime, he has a lock on this riding until death. Blair McLean, the Tory candidate, is a longtime hack who runs every time for jollies. It would be shocking to see Milliken get anything less than 60% here.
19/03/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
Even if the Conservatives do win the election, this seat will remain Liberal. The incumbent here defeated PC Cabinet Minister, Flora MacDonald in 1988 when Mulroney won a second majority government.
18/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

The Liberals might lose some seats in eastern Ontario, but Kingston & The Islands won't be one of them. Mr. Speaker is safe.
17/03/04 RWA
Email: ryanadams78@hotmail.com
It would take a lot to dislodge Speaker Peter Milliken. He had a wide margin in 2000 even factoring in the vote split. He should win handily again.

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