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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:53 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:00 PM 6/27/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Mark Holland
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Karen MacDonald
Kevin Modeste
René Soetens

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge (55.2%)
Hon. Dan McTeague
Whitby-Ajax (44.8%)
Judi Longfield

2000 Result/Résultats:
19,974 57.44%
8,260 23.75%
4,767 13.71%
1,425 4.10%
348 1.00%

(80/200 polls, 33831/85501 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(71/195 polls, 27498/83328 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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23/06/04 Deebee
Email: [hidden]
Apparently Pickering Regional Councillor Mark Holland remains on full municipal pay as he campaigns for federal office. At least, Wayne Arthurs took some reduction when he did the same thing last fall. City of Pickering municipal tax bills hit the mail boxes this week and they are waaaay up. The biggest municipal tax shock here in years. Holland has no qualms about hitting the taxpayer. This should help Soetens.
21/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
If Dan McTeague had been running, Ajax-Pickering would be going Liberal, but Uxbridge will be missed in redistribution the Ontario Liberals love for developing protected rural land here has killed Mark Holland's chances and gave Rene Soetens a free seat without earning it the hard way. Funny how the opportunists of old in guise of past Brian Mulroney Blue and Red Tories re-runs come out of the closet after a decade plus of inter-party division when power and patronage are to be had so expect federal politics to be the same as it has been under Pearson-Trudeau, Mulroney-Campbell and Chretien-Martin regimes with this bunch. As well, this region is running hard for revenge for Janet Ecker's ouster last fall and is backing Jim Flaherty's Ontario Tory leadership bid so it will show in this election.
10/06/04 905er
No NDP signs, no NDP literature - NDP candidate nominated almost 2 weeks into the campaign in this riding. Holland is a moderate who is pro-choice and is hammering the charter of rights issue. With the left seeing there is no NDP presence here and that Holland is progressive the anti-Harper vote will band together here and back the well known local candidate who is running a strong campaign. With 57.8% last time for the Libs. - this riding will hold.
26/05/04 in the know
Email: [hidden]
This riding should be changed to TC. It is definitely in play for both the Liberals and the Conservatives. Two well know veteran campaigners.
McGuinty Budget at the door an issue.
This riding will follow the national trend... Liberal Majority..Liberal Win...Liberal Minority...Conservative Pick Up. Who Knows....PM Harper not out of the question either
23/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Could a one-term Mulroney washup be credible comeback material? Hey, it didn't hurt a whole slew of Mulroneyites/Socreds running for the BC Liberals in 2001. (Besides, if if Kim Campbell had polled at the end of her campaign what she had polled at the beginning, Soetens would've been reelected in '93.) Still, in this new seat, Holland's municipal experience makes him an ideal Federal Grit drop in the bucket--but the proximity to/overlap with Flahertyland is so so Tory-tempting. Soetens is alright, but imagine if the Tories had Janet Ecker running; *then* they'd be shooting to kill...
24/04/04 Alan
A few points of clarification - minor one first. Norah Stoner was never Mayor and she lost because she failed to keep her commitment to close the Brock West Landfill site. 2nd, the poll numbers in Ontario are 46% Lib to 31% CP to 21% NDP (most recent Environics Poll). The Liberal numbers are stronger yet in the GTA - this is what you need to look at as opposed to national numbers. 3rd, Holland is on Rogers 10 all the time and as a Regional Councillor, coverage in the local paper crosses over regularly (he was in three stories in the Ajax paper just this week). I freely admit to being a supporter but the fact is - he is well known and respected. His mother is 35 year teacher at Pickering High (which is in Ajax), Holland worked at a bank in Ajax for several years, worked in Dan McTeague's office in Ajax, sits on a number of Ajax-Pickering committees and lived in Ajax for almost a decade. As for Pickeirng - most thought he would run for Mayor in the last municipal. He is very strong right accross Pickering and as Deputy Mayor is very well known. No one doubts that Rene is a nice guy - but the numbers and Holland's reputation as someone who gets things done will ensure a strong red result.
16/04/04 JLS
Email: [hidden]
I think the Mark Holland campaign has been working overtime. Nearly 75% of this riding's population is in Ajax and of those residents who live in Pickering, they do not live in Mark's council ward. Combine this with the fact that the News Advertiser produces a different version of the paper in Ajax than in Pickering. Pickering council news is virtually ignored. Mark's name recognition in Ajax is virtually non existent. Unless Paul Martin can pull a Harry Potter and make Adscan disappear (along with Norway, perhaps), this riding could very well go to the new Conservative Party. Mark and Paul's attempt to make the "Liberal" brand name disappear is too transparent to be taken seriously.
13/04/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
Clearly the Libs in T.O. and the GTA are caught up in assumptions drawn on their happy times in '93, '97, '00. Happy times are over.
35% Liberal, 28% Tory nationally means that there will be a significant CPC trend in much of the GTA, especially the 905. Rene Soetens is a qualified guy who knows how to win. Holland may be a good guy but ask Norah Stoner the former Pickering Mayor who represented this area for the Ont. Libs what happens when the trend turns.
09/04/04 QM
Email: [hidden]
I agree with my friend Blair. Mr. Soetens has been using the "ambulance chaser" line on all his press releases, nomination material and even in all his speeches. I could understand some resentment towards Dan McTeague if the election results had been close and he had been narowly defeated at the fault of his party, but the 1993 results should have sent a clear message to Mr. Soetens. Mark Holland will win this riding for the Liberal party, Mr. Soetens will improve slightly on his 1993 showing and eake out the NDP for second place.
03/04/04 Blair
Hmmm... I volunteer for a local media station and the last post from Shawn read exactly like Rene's press release. That press release was the first time I heard anyone call Dan an ambulance chaser and then it is here again for the second time. A coincidence?
Rene's strategy seems to be to run against Dan McTeague and call him names in a bitter tyrade because he lost 11 years ago. Rene, let it go. You got 19% - it wasn't close.
As far as a some kind of club - sounds nice but isn't true. Holland voted against including the Agricultural lands in the Growth Management Study and agasint the study in general. If you follow the news, he has been independent but well respected by his peers.
Lastly, Rene in his press released repeated this non-sense about Holland not living in the Riding. He has lived in Ajax and Pickering his entire life. If being on the opposite side of an arbitraty boundary is such a huge issue for Rene, why did he support Janet Ecker who lived in south Ajax but represented north Ajax and all of Pickering. Holland's Ward is split by the new riding boundaries and no one will care where in Pickering he lives. Rene is really desperate if he is pulling out that kind of hypocracy.
If the CP take more than 50 seats in Ontario, Ajax-Pickeing will be in play. Otherwise, this riding is holding red.
01/04/04 Shaun
Email: [hidden]
The riding of Ajax-Pickering is definately a battleground. Mark Holland regional councillor Ward 2 Pickering, may be known by some in this riding but only by a small amount of political buffs that reside in this riding. He is a young attractive fellow with an ambitious carreer in front of him. But he is not up to the job. His ally and fellow sponsor into the old boys club, Dan Mcteague is running in Scarborough-Pickering East, I am sure will be including Mark into his media spectales and ambulance chasing. I admit they will be fun to read in our local papers and local television stations. While Mr. Rene Soetens a very successfull business man who actually lives in his riding. Rene has the experience and the love of his community. Ajax-Pickering know him and trust him, as his record shows.
Local races depend on the national race. When it is apparent the writ is going to be dropped and we are full time into the election you will see the conservatives jumping in the polls in the media. The national campaign will place this fiscally minded riding in the conservatives hands. Then we can say goodbye to some of the good old boys club this area has seen by rejecting their latest initiate Mr. Holland.
25/03/04 QM
Email: [hidden]
I have to agree with my friend Alan, aka The Spunkiest on this one. Definitely not in play, the redistributed results in 2000 put this rding slightly over 57% Liberal. I predict a stronger showing by the NDP in this one based on the Municipal election results (in South Ajax)from late last year.
Liberal 51%, Conservative 29%, NDP 19%, Other 1%
20/03/04 Alan - the Spunkiest
I have to disagree with my friend Spunky. If Rene wins the CP nomination he is far less known in Ajax and not known at all in Pickering. Ajax and Pickering share common newspapers, tv, radio, boards, etc. Holland is in the press all the time and very well regarded. Rene was last M.P. more than 11 years ago when Ajax was half the size. I am not sure he was that popular even then as a one term wonder as he got only 19% of the vote in 1993. Further, his connection to Mulroney is hardly a plus. Point being, if this race came down to local candidates Holland wins.
The broader point is that Harper won't play well in a riding where even the combined vote doesn't come close to the Liberal vote in the last election. This is a centralist area and it is too far a jump to go over to the CP with Harper's policy and past. I agree that he might have traction in Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge or even enough for a 3 way in Oshawa but it's just not realistic here. Prediction 53% Lib, 41% CP, 5% NDP, 1% Other
19/03/04 Spunky
Email: [hidden]
This riding is definitely in play. A lot of the previous Liberal strength was due to the personal popularity of Dan McTeague, who is now running in Pickering-Scarborough East. Two thirds of the riding is Ajax where Councillor Holland is all but unknown. It appears that he will be up against a popular, well-known former MP who has maintained strong roots and visibility in the community. Holland will not be able to count on long coat tails from Paul Martin. This one could well go to the Tories.
15/03/04 905er
The Liberals are going to loose some seats in Ontario. In Durham, Oshawa and Clarington-Uxbridge-Scuggog are in play. That said, the rest of the Durham ridings should be safe. In the new riding of Ajax-Pickering the Liberals have nominated a popular Regional Councillor who previously managed Dan McTeague's campaign. They have had a campaign office open for a couple of weeks and the conservatives are still waiting to have their nomination meeting at the end of March. Combined with the fact the Liberals took more than 57% of the vote here last time (redistributed) and this is a Liberal win.

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