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St.John's South

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:28 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:43 PM 14/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Siobhan Coady
Loyola Hearn
Peg Norman
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Stephen Willcott

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
St. John's East (4.9%)
Norman Doyle
St. John's West (95.1%)
Loyola Hearn

2000 Result/Résultats:
18,610 53.65%
10,526 30.35%
4,647 13.40%
761 2.19%
142 0.41%

St. John's East
(16/224 polls, 3183/76804 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

St. John's West
(167/226 polls, 61214/75008 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Ashley Morton
Email: ashley.morton@utor...
Okay, this shouldn't be a discussion board (but rather an information and analysis submission vehicle), so I won't *really* respond to what Mr. Hollett had to say, except to point out that his re-distribution comments are off the mark (the numbers are clearly presented to the left - in 2000, the PC + Alliance vote equalled 19,371. Almost nine thousand of them would have to stay home, or four-and-a-half thousand change to voting Liberal without a single one going the other direction in order to unseat Mr. Hearn), and his comments on money flowing to the riding are off-base (a) How many electors know the detailed borders of their riding? and b) The message was, I would suggest, still clear - "I help secure money for projects in the riding I represent.")
As for new thoughts (not that there are many left, we've hashed out most of them): I really believe that this riding will be determined almost exclusively on the basis of the men and women specifically contesting it. On the Conservative and Liberal fronts, at least, that's exactly what I hear: "I really like what I hear from Siobhan Coady" or "Loyola's been a good man in Ottawa." I don't know what the situation would be if this was previously a 50-50 riding and there was no incumbent. However, Hearn starts with a clear head start (sure, not the whole 9,000 votes, but some at least), and he's only gained more supporters through his previous four years. Thus, since so many people are voting in the Hearn vs. Coady election, not the Harper vs. Martin one, I don't think it's rational to consider this riding in the balance. I think that the parties' analyses are saying that, too. That's why, when Harper stopped in this province yesterday, he didn't speak in this riding or St. John's North, he spoke in Avalon, theoretically John Efford's "I could get elected if I ran for the Green Party" riding. St. John's South - First riding in the country to be declared, I bet - by 8:50pm Newfoundland time, for Loyola Hearn.
24/06/04 MC
Email: [hidden]
A CBC Canada Now overview of the district said that although Hearn is ahead currently, it is only a miniscule lead. They said that both Coady and Norman are within striking distance. I think Alliance-Conservative-fearing people will unite behind the Liberal candidate because she has the better chance and Coady will squeak out a win. The consensus is that this is not a safe seat.
20/06/04 full name
Email: [hidden]
this seat will go liberal. The conservatives know they are in trouble here, lack of workers and polling by news network shows close race. in fact too close to call. the momentum is in coadys favor and she will take the seat especially since Klien's announcement about reforms health care (private health care)and the conservatives disgusting jab at child porn and martin. The seat is in so much danger Harper is coming to try to help hearn to keep the seat. Wow two visits to same district...must be trouble. Martin will also be coming to sure up a liberal win, given regional popularity of liberals all seats in newfoundland will go liberal, with the tightest race in sjn
15/06/04 Doug S.
Email: [hidden]
I agree with the assessment that this is one of the seven seats in Newfoundland and Labrador that can be predicted at this point in time. Loyola Hearn has been instrumental in bringing the Alliance and Progressive Conservatives together and is part of the Conservative Party's "Truth Squad." If he wasn't sure of winning his seat, he would be spending more time in the riding campaigning. I think he has a good handle on the electorate, and will likely be in a Harper cabinet should the Conservatives win an majority or a govern-able minority. His Liberal competitor, Siobhan Coady, and the NDP candidate, Peg Norman, are both newcomers and do not have the name recognition that is needed in Newfoundland politics. If the NDP had come up with a "name" candidate, they might have followed up on Greg Malone's success, but as it now stands, very few people know who Peg Norman is, other than the fact she is Gerri Rogers' partner. Perhaps Rogers should have run, she is certainly much more well-known than Norman. As for Sioban Coady, I think the Liberals "spiral" will continue downward and they are headed for a dismal finish in this general election and Coady will be one of the Liberal candidates to be rejected by the voters, despite an admiral campaign - she'll finish third.
15/06/04 Ed Hollett
Email: [hidden]
How interesting to see the loyal Conservatives claiming this riding is , among other things, the most Conservative riding in the province.
In its old configuration, they are right. The new configuration reallocated the strongly Conservative segments to the new riding of Avalon, where incumbent Liberal John Efford enjoys overwhelming support.
In the new configuration, Elections Canada results for the past two General Elections and the by-election show something very different. In 1997, the riding would have gone Liberal. In the by-election it would have gone to the NDP. The last outing is the only one of the last three in which Conservatives would have won clearly.
The riding is now urban and contains more Independent or swing voters than anything else.
Mr. Hearn, the Conservative candidate has two unique problems. Firstly, he is having to distance himself from Stephen Harper who placed third the leadership candidates among Conservatives in this province. Local Progressive Conservatives are unsure of Mr. Harper and the new party. There are local reports of provincial Progressive Conservatives not turning out to work for Mr. Hearn's campaign, or, more tellingly, defecting across the border to work for the Conservative candidate in St. John's North.
Secondly, there is considerable dissatisfaction in the riding with the provincial Progressive Conservative government and its draconian spring budget. The provincial PCs have plummeted in the polls in the past six monthys and Mr. Hearn may well have to fight to overcome that.
Altogether, Mr. Hearn is caught between the rock of falling local PC support and the hard place of being seen as one of the people who helped kill off the old national PC party.
He is still the incumbent and therefore has an advantage. He might squeek by if the NDP picks up a significant portion of the anti-Conservative vote. Otherwise, expect this one to go to the Liberals.
In this the fourth week of the campaign, Mr. Hearn has been keeping a low profile. He was slow getting out the gate and his overall sign presence is surprisingly low. National media are reporting that he is ducking interviews, including refusing to let camera crews accompnay him while he goes door to door. He has so far refused to commit to the one public debate being organized by one of the local chambers of commerce. He is also showing himself unwilling to appear on any media interviews with the other candidates.
One of his householders (one of two that arrived in area mailboxes on the same day) contains a number of significant factual errors. He appears to claim credit for millions of dollars of federal money flowing to the riding. Mr. Hearn doesn't mention that $5.0 million of the money actually flowed to areas not in the new riding. He double counts other money and claims credit for projects for which he likely had no hand in securing money. Worst of all, Mr. Hearn fails to mention that the programs he claims credit for are Liberal programs that are likely to be axed by a Conservative government.
While I'd predict this riding to change hands, a more cautious prediction is that it is too close to call. If anything the only seat likely to remain Conservative is St. John's North.
The CRA poll mentioned by another correspondent actually showed something very different than claimed by the correspondent. The poll showed Liberal support across Newfoundland and Labrador running at 50% while Conservative support is at 31%. It was based on a sample of 800 respondents in the province and as such is considerably more reliable than national polling, which is often based on as few as 65 respondents in the whole province. With numbers that high, the Liberal would sweep the province, taking all seven seats.
Whatever happens nationally, there are still the two significant issues affecting Mr. Hearn - namely disaffection with the federal Conservative party and with the local PC government. He can't escape those.
Maybe if the Conservative supporters spent less time sending you comments on several ridigngs and more time knocking doors, they might stand a better chance.
12/06/04 E. MacKenzie
Email: [hidden]
This is a classic case of a relatively simple race to call. Hearn will be reelected because of his personal popularity, the advantage of incumbency (especially for someone likely to have a senior Government position if there is a Conservative government) the Conservative history of this seat, the national Conservative trend, and the relative weakness of the Liberal & NDP candidates. I don't expect it to really be close.
10/06/04 expatriot
Email: [hidden]
I'm a transplanted Newfoundlander living in Ottawa, and from what I hear Loyola Hearn will hang on to his seat with a solid majority of the votes. I'm not too familiar with the other candidates, but I know from following activity here on the hill that it would be a shame if Newfoundland didn't send Mr. Hearn back to represent them on the Hill, especially considering he WILL be a key member of the Conservative Party cabinet. He has been more vocal than all Liberal members combined, especially on issues pertinent to Newfoundland. On the issue of control over the nose and tail and Flemish Cap, he has lead the way while Liberal back benchers have been silent and Cabinet Minister Effort has been invisible. Hearn by a landslide, if the district is smart.
10/06/04 Ashley Morton
Email: ashley.morton@utor...
While much of "no name" 's commentary is correct on some issues (boundary shift helping the NDP - look at all the Norman signs in the downtown and out towards Signal Hill) issues, I really don't think that it is on others (national leader helping the local candidate - Last time the NDP nationally was led by a Haligonian, now by a Torontonian. While Layton is clearly stronger than McDonough, Layton screams "Central Canada".)
And really, the statement that "Had the current electoral boundaries been in place this would have been an easy win for the NDP" is just false. The numbers in question are there at the left of your screen. Yes, that's redistributed to the current boundaries. ...and the NDP, while they did win the section that was just added, still only end up with 13.4%. That means they need, at a screaming limit minimum, to pick up an additional 20% (that assumes they get it all from the Conservative vote, with the Cons bleeding a bit to the Libs - clearly a 'stretching it' assumption). In reality, they probably need 25%. Even at 20%, that's over 6,000 additional votes. There are only 3,183 in the added territory, even at 100% turnout (and 100% for the NDP!). While I'm sure Norman will pull of a respectable 3rd, possibly even give Coady some pie in the face by edging her for second if the pissed-off-at-the-liberals factor is high enough here, but Hearn's really got this one locked up.
Oh, yeah, and doorstep and phone polls seem to be looking like 50%-plus for him.
01/06/04 no name
Email: [hidden]
I think the NDP have a good chance in this riding with the boundary changes bringing in more of the city and less of the southern shore. Greg Malone almost took the riding from Hearn in the 2000 by-election. Had the current electoral boundaries been in place this would have been an easy win for the NDP. People here are deeply suspicious of the Conservative party. The Liberal candidate has been building up her candidacy for years, and clearly has money behind her. The NDP candidate, while not as high-profile as Malone, is solid and credible. I think voters will be thinking more about the leader attached to each of the candidates, which will also boost the NDP vote.
28/05/04 Voter
Email: [hidden]
While Loyola would have walked away with the old riding, this new one is a bit different. Most of his support was in the southern shore area, now part of Avalon riding. While that should make it harder for him to win in the cities (Mt. Pearl and St. John's), the Liberals and the NDP failed to run anyone with real name recognition or credibility. The liberals are running a PR person (havn't they had enough trouble with PR people lately) and the NDP are running someone who bills themselves as an artist/activist. Yeah, that's what suburbanites like these are going to vote for (sarcasm intended). In the end, it will likely be Hearn again, but not by as wide a margin as before.
28/05/04 Ashley Morton
Email: ashley.morton@utor...
I'm not quite sure where "St. John's South Voter" (one of which I am, too) is getting his impressions. "Not a fully committed supporter" - Hearn was one of the people instrumental in the merger from the PC side. Unless SJSV is thinking about the sort of loyalty games that Martin & Chrétien played, in which case, Hearn would probably not be loyal enough to pass the sort of tests Martin ran, but that doesn't matter in the Conservative party (at least, I've not seen it to yet, but I'm not a member, so maybe it does.)
Do people in St. John's South actually want "a member who communicates well with the party power brokers"? That could, in theory, be said about any riding, anywhere. But in SJS, they voted last time for Mr. Hearn when there was even LESS chance of him being a communicator with any power brokers!
As for Coady being "well-connected within the district": She doesn't live here. She does, I agree, have a business that operates out of St. John's. But if you have connections with the business community of St. John's, that'll connect you with the richer suburban areas of St. John's North, not the blue-collar/low-end-white-collar residents of this riding. I mean, their offices (TD, Voisey's Bay Nickel Co., etc.) may now be located here, but they live out along Logy Bay and Torbay Roads, and not in the downtown core, or out in Mount Pearl, which is where all the votes are in this riding.
At the core: Hearn's done a good job, people voted for him last time, and if there is even a core of the "vote for someone who talks to people who matter" vote in this riding, they have only more reason to vote for him this time, as the Conservatives are clearly going to be, at worst (for them) Official Opposition in a majority government situation. That's still more than voting PC got you last time!
28/05/04 Jeff Mackey
Email: [hidden]
There is a race in St. John's South for the first time in a number of elections. Siobhan Coady is the only star candidate to come forward in the 2004 election in Newfoundland and Labrador so far. Ms. Coady's involvement in the fishery, bio-genetics and community development is second to nobody in the province. Anyone who has visited this riding over the past week will see that Ms. Coady's campaign has begun in earnest, being first in the province to erect signs, distribute pamphelets, knock on doors, air radio ads and open an election headquarters. Mr. Hearn, now several days into the campaign, has less than a handfull of signs out, has very little activity at his headquarters and appears very disorganized. St. John's South is a new riding in which most former PC's have been removed with the new boundaries. A new face and a new perspective are likely to prevail in St. John's South, returning the riding to the Liberal Party.
28/05/04 Mike White
Email: [hidden]
Loyala Hearn is a shoe in for this seat since it is the most reliable Tory seat in the province. Look for his numbers to go down a bit because of a natural suspicion of the old Reform/Alliance elements that are foreign to the people of the Southern and Cape shores.
28/05/04 Neil F. Pittman
This seat has been Conservative continually (it was John Crosbie's riding), with the exception of the the Kim Campbell election.
The riding redistribution has actually helped Hearn, as the proportionate Conservative vote is higher in the urban areas than those rural areas which have been reallocated to the Avalon district. This weighs heavily in favour of the man who had the highest percentage of conservative votes in the country in the last election.
Mr. Hearn has a strong, committed group of volunteers who have been through the battles before with him. The "name change" in Party will be a non-issue, as the real issues here will be the fishery, as usual, and health care. Hearn is an outspoken critic, and advocate, of enhanced protection of the fish stocks, a fact which plays quite well in this district.
While Siobhan Coady may well be a good liberal candidate, Hearn has defeated Chuck Furey, a prominent local politician, and faced his toughest challenge from the well known actor, comedian and community activist Greg Malone.
Hearn should easily win the district.
23/05/04 St John's South voter
Email: [hidden]
I can't see Mr Hearn holding the seat. His future with the party is surely bleak with the Reform wing holding the reins quite tightly. Mr Harper knows Mr Hearn is not a fully committed supporter, and Mr Hearn's role within the party was reduced after Harper was elected to lead the new party.
People in St John's South will want a member who communicates well with the party power brokers. Mrs. Coady is a known Martin supporter and is well-connected within the district. With a significant portion of Hearn's voter base now living in a different riding, this will probably be a tougher fight for him than many would think.
As far as the vote count from the Provincial election goes, NFLDers have historicaly demonstrated varying degrees of continuity between who they vote for provincially vs federally. Either candidate could take this riding, but I would give the edge to the Liberals based on Mrs. Coady's reputation as one who gets things done.
19/05/04 Liam O'Brien
Email: [hidden]
Loyola Hearn has a strong organization. He probably has the biggest overall media presence of ANY MP from the province. He is recognized by people of all stripes for tireless efforts on files such as Fisheries. The St. John's Mount Pearl crowd seem to trust Loyola Hearn. He has a long history in politics, education, and business in the region, and is well liked by many in the local music industry. It is precisely because he is one of the emissaries that helped broker the unity of the conservative parties that people don't buy the Liberal PR line about "CA takeover" - Hearn sat at the table and ensured that PC people are now key in the overall party and that the PC Constitution was all but adopted. If anything, it's substantively a *Progressive* Conservative takeover... HEarn's high profile in caucus and in the national capital as a fighter for Newfoundland prove that fact. Both the NDP (Malone) and the Liberals (Furey, Sparrow, and Gibbons) have thrown some high profile names agains Loyola... a lot more high profile than Siobahn Coady... to no avail. Hearn is in a safe seat, not just because the area is tory (2003 provincial results for this region: Conservative approx 70%, Lib 17%, NDP 13%), it's safe because Hearn seems to continue to make it safe. I will say this much -- I thik that because of her business connections, Coady might be able to pick up a few votes more than Chuck Furey (she has started her visible campaign earlier)... but not enough to make the seat change.
19/05/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
I think the fact that Hearn is now representing a party led by Stephen Harper coupled with the strong Liberal candidate Siobahn Coady will cause a major shift and the Liberals will nudge a win. I don't predict a large win in this district but a Conservative wipe-out in NL is a possibility in my opinion. I've spoken with a few individuals who had intended to vote for Hearn as a PC, but just can't bring themselves to vote for an Alliance-dominated Conservative party. Hearn is the strongest NL Conservative candidate, but I don't think it will be enough. Stephen Harper has alienated too many red tories.
19/05/04 J Poole
This Riding is the only safe Tory seat in NFLD (if there are any). It has been back and forth since Blowout'93, but Hearn should have no trouble this time.
24/04/04 AM
Email: [hidden]
Going to be a close one. Siobhan Coady is a strong candidate for the Liberals with good business ties in the community and a little political exposure due to her stint on CBC as a political analyst. While the tory incumbent Loyola Hearn has lost a valuable piece of his support in the Southern Shore now in Avalon district. I think Hearn has the edge because of the sponsorship issue. However, there could be a backlash to Hearn playing an instumental role in the dissolution of the PC party into the current Conservative party, which many see as the Reform in a new suit.
24/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Mr.Hearn is now on the frontbenches of the opposition, and holds a good post in the shadow cabinet. If a party can have a "Newfoundland Lieutenant" then Mr.Hearn would hold that post for the Conservatives. A few other reasons I'm pretty certain about this. The margin of win last time is only one of them. The Conservatives are weak in eastern Canada, and they will use the same strategy the PC Party used in Quebec in the 60's 70's and 80's, where they focus on a few ridings they can win, and hope the rest follow in tow. This is one of the eastern ridings the Conservatives feel they can win. Some parties "target" ridings, in that they spend much more money here then normal, and assist the candidate in trying to win. This riding is almost certain to be targeted. This riding is, historically, the best riding for the Conservatives in Newfoundland, electing previous Cabinet Ministers such as John C. Crosbie. Since 1968, only once was a Liberal elected here, and that wa! s in 1993. This riding is one of the most Conservative ridings east of Alberta.
Easy win.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is a conservative minded riding and the current MP is quite popular and high profile. All these are pluses for the Conservatives (as is, without saying, the current Liberal woes). However the incumbant won as a PC, and if Steven Harper wins the party leadership this could hurt all the Newfoundland Conservatives. Despite this, barring and anti-Atlantic Canada rhetoric from any party officials, we feel the Conservatives can hold all their Newfoundland seats, maybe, just maybe, even gain one(dare we say two?).
17/03/04 J Hickman
Email: [hidden]
Much like Norm Doyle in St John's North (formerly St John's East), in 2000 Mr Hearn defeated a Liberal with a significant pedigree (former NL minister and "Friend of Tobin", when that meant more politically than it might now), even though the PC's were having a not-so-good election nation-wide. Like Mr Doyle, Mr Hearn has deep personal roots in the riding that can help overcome even a poor overall showing by his Party. His current high profile shouldn't hurt him a bit.
Unless the CPC suffers a '93-style collapse on all fronts, I expect that Mr Hearn will hold this seat.
15/03/04 SB
Loyola Hearn is a highly visible, very popular MP in the heart of Tory country in Newfoundland. St. John's is a Tory stronghold and both seats will go Conservative. Hearn will win with a huge majority here.
15/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
This could go to any of the three parties depending on the candidates. The Conservatives have a natural advantage with their incumbancy, but the leadership could hurt them. All parties have a number of hurdles to overcome here, but with the right candidate the NDP could win this new urban riding. They could also split the anti-government vote allowing a Liberal to take the seat.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
Loyola Hearn will be in a tough fight here, trying to hold this very old Tory seat for the new Conservatives, whose leader (whomever it is) will likely have little appeal in Newfoundland. Hearn's status as the Conservative's Parliamentary Deputy Leader has made him one of the highest profile Conservatives from Atlantic Canada (along with Peter MacKay and Elsie Wayne). This should provide him with enough of a profile to just barely hang on to the seat. Narrow Tory win, and the only one in Newfoundland.

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