Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
11:55 AM 6/18/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:03 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Ern Condon
Shawn Crann
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Lori-Ann Martino
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Lawrence O'Brien
Merrill Strachan

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Labrador (100.0%)
Lawrence O'Brien

2000 Result/Résultats:
7,046 68.99%
1,267 12.41%
1,240 12.14%
660 6.46%
0 0.00%

(76/76 polls, 19431/19431 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Sponsoring this space? See sponsorship details
12/06/04 E. MacKenzie
Email: [hidden]
I agree that Labrador is more of an Arctic riding than it is a Maritimes one, and personal following is crucial. Because of that, not even the biggest swing away from the Liberals will hurt O'Brien's chances; he'll win this riding for as long as he cares to run.
10/06/04 TAN
Email: [hidden]
With less than twelve hours to go until the nomination deadline, no sign of either a Conservative or NDP candidate in Canada's second-smallest riding. Regardless of whether papers get filed tomorrow or not, this can only bode well for O'Brien.
10/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
Native-son incumbent Liberal will take it. A lot of remote frontier-like ridings run more or less entirely on favours from powerful people, so, if you have a link into the governing caucus, you don't typically give it up just because you're angry. And, the NDP has apparently no one in this riding, so there is only the Green to draw off any anti-establishment vote.
Email: [hidden]
Labrador will probably go Liberal again.
MP O'Brien is pretty popular in the riding. The North and Soth coasts are strongly Liberal, and there are enough Liberals votes elsewhere to make this an easier Liberal win.
I would say, however, that this new riding of Labrador has not been seriously contested since 1996. If the Conservatives were able to find a strong and well-known candidate, this riding could become one to watch. Such a strong candidate with strong united organization hasn't come forward in a long time. Perhaps that is a statement about Mr. O'Brien's popularity in and of itself. I also hear he has some very smart and capable staff members helping him...
01/05/04 psephologist
Email: [hidden]
This riding isn't as safe as the percentages indicate. There were only ten thousand votes cast here at the last election. That means a shift with a relatively small number of voters can have a big impact.
Put another way, O'Brien's majority is about 6,000. This would be about a 12% margin in another riding but translates into a margin of over 50% here.
This is essentially an Artic riding, and like the other such ridings, a popular incumbent can build up a large majority, in percentage turns. This riding will vote Liberal until its incumbent retires, after that it will be up for grabs.
29/04/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
In the 1996 byelection, most pundits (the incumbent MP included) agreed that if it had been held a week earlier, Reform would have taken Labrador. As it was, the margin was 40-30.
In 1997, the Grit vote squeaked back into absolute majority, but barely, just over 50 percent. This was the "surprise! Liberals bomb in Atlantic Canada" election, remember, where even rotten boroughs like Burin, Cape Breton, and the Acadian regions turfed Liberal MPs, and where other Liberal seats in Newfoundland were threatened with extinction after sweeping all seven in 1993.
In 2000, it pushed 70%. I think this may be the only seat in Atlantic Canada where the Liberal vote went up in both of the 1997 and 2000 general elections.
It would seem that someone has been doing something right.
Liberal hold.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This is the safest Liberal seat in Newfoundland and Labrador. For the time being, it's the only one that we are going to call for the Liberals in this provence. No big upsets here.
15/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Mr.O'Brien is the first MP born in Labrador to be elected from Labrador.
Mr.O'Brien won the last election by a margin of over 50%
Labrador is in eastern Canada, and nethier the Conservatives or NDP is doing well in polls here, nor are they expected to do well.
15/03/04 S Meades
Email: [hidden]
Lawrence O'Brien seems to have the riding locked up (something like 70+ per cent in 2000?), however underservedly.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici
Return to/retournez à - Provincial Index/Actualité provinciale
Return to/retournez à - 2004 Federal Election Prediction/Prévision de élection générale 2004

© 1999-2004 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com - Email Webmaster