1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Don Valley West

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Paul Davidson
Progressive Conservative Party:
Hon. David Turnbull MPP
New Democratic Party:
Geoff Allen
Natural Law Party:
Debbie Weberg
Judith Snow

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Don Mills (36%):
Hon. David Johnson
Eglinton (22%):
William Saunderson
York East (38%):
John Parker
York Mills (46%):
Hon. David Turnbull

Member of Parliament:
John Godfrey

Surrounding Ridings:
Beaches-East York
Don Valley East
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre-Rosedale

Population: 103 026
Avg Household Income 77 193
Language (Home)
English 80 390
Chinese 4 035
Submitted Information
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02/28/99 Bill Lardner Email: welardn@ibm.net
Turnbull is the primary factor here. He is a good and effective MPP and is well liked. He is also a vigorous campaigner. The PC's Don Valley West organization is strong.
03/10/99 I. MacFarlane Email:
The Tories are in big trouble over several issues in various area of the riding but it will not be an easy fight. The Liberal Candidate Paul Davidson has strong community ties and will be able to beat out David Turnbull through hard work.
04/10/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
This is the Toronto riding with the strongest PC record by far; even in 1987, when the Tories were blanked in Metro, within these boundaries they still might have come within 5 points of the Liberals--and that's with the non-Tory tokenisms of Thorncliffe and Flemingdon taken into account. Yet surprisingly, Turnbull may be in for a tougher ride than he's counting on, and not only by being hemmed in by his traditional York Mills ratepayer activist base. The problem is, he's got too much North Toronto, too much Leaside, too many older neighbourhoods where genteel/yuppie homeowners are ticked off more than usual by what the Harris yokels hath wrought, and where a sort of "Bill Kilbourn" civic Liberalism (that which supported Barbara Hall over Mel Lastman as Toronto mayor in 1997) can be fine formula for an upset. If the Tories lose this one, you'll know they really blew it big in Toronto--and don't automatically assume that they haven't.
05/08/99 Gail Nyberg Email: gail.nyberg@tdsb.on.ca
This riding is harder to call than most people think. So many parts are new. As a previous post said North Toronto could be called PC territory but they did elected a non-tory Trustee Shelley Laskin. Leaside may be considered Tory but elected me a non party person but not Tory for sure. by over by some 4,000 to 800 votes against P.C. party treasurer Rick Perkins. He lives in Leaside and I live in the Eastern part of EasT York. Michael Prue almost tripled the vote on Case Ootes and known P.C. Thornciffe and Flemington will not vote Tory.
05/09/99 S. Yoshioka Email: manabiya@hotmail.com
Touted by the PC party as a Tory stronghold, Don Valley West is a riding where the Harris government has much to lose. Although Turnbull will enjoy the support of the elite in areas near the Granite club (areas which benefitted the most from Harris' tax cuts), other taxpayers have yet to see much benefit. Instead they have seen cuts to Education and Health care. They may not know that Harris has had to borrow money and cut Social services in order to cater to the rich by means of tax cuts. The people have seen tax cuts, this cannot be denied, but in its place programs have been cut and various user fees have been imposed (parks and rec, prescription drugs). Due to a lack of a NDP base in this riding, the race is on between the Liberal candidate and Turnbull. I am a high school student at Leaside High School and I have visited Mr. Turnbull's office on two occasions to get answers on education reform. Although I am generaly satisfied with the reforms to the secondary school reforms, I am disappointed with the answers I got to my queries about University tuitions. Tuitions have gone up 60% since 1992 and I will be paying an unprecidented amount of tuition starting this September. Ontario is now the most expensive province in Canada to study at the post-secondary level. I was told that the Tories will 'provide the help needed to manage their costs', namely through student loans and a new scholarship trust fund. Gee thanks, now I'll be burdened with even more debt after I graduate. Reading the so-called 'blueprint', the Tories have brought tuition fees back up to the 'reasonable and affordable 35% level(the percentage of the fees paid by the student)' Living in Toronto and commuting to a Toronto University will cost me close to 7000 dollars a year! What part of this is reasonable and affordable? I think its clear that Harris' agenda is only about the bottom line, cutting funding to Education and Health Care to provide tax cuts to the rich. In closing, I would like to mention that while talking to Mr. Turnbull about education, he was interupted in mid-sentence by a secritary regarding a speech which he was supposed to make at a graduation ceremony. (government propaganda, no doubt) He got up and put on his tie and grumbled about finding someone to drive him to the event. He never finished his sentence to me about University Tuitions because he had other things on his mind, and besides, I was promptly kicked out by his campaign maneger. Guess they had to time to answer questions from a lowly student. What Arrogance!
05/10/99 Globe and Mail Email:
Toronto 'tough country' for Conservatives by John Barber
One of the safest government seats in the city remains Don Valley West, held by MP David Turnball.
05/19/99 Mara Thompson Email:
This Riding will definately be Conservative. David Turnbull is a strong campainger and is well liked by many. He has the support of the community to represent them in The PC government. The sweep in the 1995 Election by John Parker may not be as broad, but Turnbull will still win this one, and leave Mr. Daviason Behind! Mr. Davidson is a union man. He knows how to campaign for the unions and has been head of the cannadian publishers association. Harrassing the Government is in his genes. So, if you wnt another union boss making your decisions, then by all means, elect Davidson.
05/19/99 Toronto Star Email:
Liberal rookie takes aim at Tories by Catherine Dunphy
05/22/99 GBR Email: lizgary@connection.com
This riding was created by a Federal gerrymander to create a safe Tory seat for Dalton Camp when he was unable to win in the old Eglinton. Until then, Eglinton since incorporation in 1913 had never elected anything but a Tory, and except for Camp, in Federal elections at least,DVW has never returned anything but a Tory. Broadway/Flemington are notorious for low voter turnouts (although the Conservatives' killing rent control might encourage a few more), look for one of the few Tory MPP's from Metro being returned here.
05/26/99 S. Yoshioka Email: manabiya@hotmail.com
Mara Thompson's comment about Paul Davidson being a puppet of the unions is completely ridiculous. Paul Davidson is a popular man of integrity and is running in order to repair some of the damage done in the past four years. Davidson and the Liberal Party are committed to ensure that government is abour more than the bottom line. Don Valley West isconsidered by the Tories as the safest seat in Toronto and to ensure the election of David Turnbull, the party is pouring money into his campaign. HOwever Davidson also has strong volunteer support and has been campaigning endlessly since even before the announcement of the election. He also trounced Turnbull in the all-candidates meeting held at Leaside High SChool.

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Last Updated 27th May 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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