1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Julie Wang-Morris
Progressive Conservative Party:
Rita Smith
New Democratic Party:
Marilyn Churley MPP
Natural Law Party:
Bob Hyman
Family Coalition Party:
Tony Ieraci
Melanie Cishecki

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Beaches Woodbine (5%):
Frances Lankin
Riverdale (100%):
Marilyn Churley
York East (41%):
John Parker

Member of Parliament:
Dennis Mills

Surrounding Ridings:
Beaches-East York
Don Valley West
Toronto Centre-Rosedale

Population: 99 225
Avg Household Income 47 661
Language (Home)
English 65 560
Chinese 13 205
Greek 5 865
Submitted Information
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02/22/99 Andy Lehrer Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
This is a traditional NDP stronghold which the NDP has held provincially for decades. Federally, it was an NDP lock until Dennis Mills came along If the NDP lose here it's indicative of serious problems for the party.
03/21/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Churley, you jest? *GROAN* But anyway, the NDP advantage holds into the new boundaries; Gary Malkowski did well in this part of York East in '95. And even if the party didn't have such an electoral advantage already, Churley could hold her seat on likeability and grassroots appeal alone. All the PCs really have a lock on might be the tiny Governor's Bridge outlier, and with a representative as well-loved as Churley, why *bother* electing a Liberal?
04/09/99 D.Cavaco Email:
Howard Hampton's low public profile may cast a dark shadow of some traditional NDP seats. As voters quickly learn that this election will be Harris v. McGuinty many politically astute voters just might pull themselves away from the incumbent and back up the Liberals this time around. Broadview-Greenwood might be a "strategic voting" riding. Julie Wang Morris will appeal to many people in the area given her background as a successful businessperson, especially in the Gerrard and Broadview hub. Having lived in the area for many years will make her effective at the doors. Her message will resonate with voters given her solid experience as a publisher for several community newspapers.
04/20/99 A. Email:
This is a very, very safe NDP seat provincially, regardless of the candidate. Add the local popularity of former city councillor and now two-term MPP Marilyn Churley, and toss in the electoral machines of numerous NDP municipal officials (Layton, McConnell, Schaeffer) and you have the makings of an NDP fortress.
05/07/99 Pat Bradley Email:
Well, I've just moved here since the last election; I was in Isabel Bassett's riding before. But Marilyn Churley definitely has name recognition, her East York piece that I got in my mailbox the other day hit all the right buttons, and my part of East York seems to be stocked with really practical working to middle middle class folks who'll vote for who will defend them.
05/08/99 T. Ishigaki Email: javert_takao@hotmail.com
Traditionally, what has been a New Democratic stronghold has changed politically with redistribution. With the NDP having only about 9 percent in the polls, have no chance of forming the next government. In the northern area of the riding, previously held by the Tory, John Parker, people have experienced the effect of health care funding cuts at Toronto East General Hospital. People at my school are clearly disillusioned with the changes that have rocked the Secondary School system. Special Education and other program budgets have been slashed. Therefore in John Parker's old riding people will most likely vote Liberal in protest. Julie Wang Moris is energetic and is concerned about the issues. Because of her publishing "the town crier" newspapers, she is well known. Given her ethnic background, she has an advantage over the other candidate in the Broadview Chinatown community. Lastly, the PC candidate in the riding has such a low profile in the riding that it is a dead heat between Churley and Julie.
05/13/99 Blair Falconer Email: bfalconer@fmarathon.com
As an ex-Albertan who voted PC in the last election and last Federal election, I have no NDP axe to grind, and judging by signs, advertising, organisation, etc., Churley has an absolute lock. I have seen 0 (zero) signs south of Danforth for any other candidates, and this includes the relatively upscale Withrow Park area.
With her name recognition in East Chinatown because of the Riverdale Hospital fight, the signage in Withrow Park, and the traditionally labour voters of South Riverdale, I would be surprised if the PCs or Liberals could generate enough support north of Danforth to even give her some nervous moments.
05/13/99 GBR Email:
Churley, within 90 minutes of the polls closing. Yet another riding where a Tory incumbent with strong East York roots and a big plurality last election declines to stay and face face the music. If amalgamation and CVA weren't going to finish him, health care and education surely would have. Provincially, the Grits have never been strong here, and the incumbent has huge suport.
05/14/99 Gail Nyberg Email: gail.nyberg@tdsb.on.ca
Marilyn will have no problem keeping this seat. A quick check of the riding who is Julie Wong-Morris. She has no signs. The Tory Rita Smith (Johnson's PR person has a few but Churley clearly is in front.
05/18/99 Yoshioka Email: manabiya@hotmail.com
Despite what Gail Nyberg has said in a previous post the Julie Wang Morris Liberal Campaign has a tremendous presence in the riding. The only reason that her signs had not been up was that there was a problem in having them printed. Driving around the riding today, it was noticed that her signs have gone up. She has a huge support base in the Chinatown region as well as support in all other areas. In the northern part of the riding, previously held by Tory John Parker (who will be decimated by Mike Colle in Eglinton-Lawrence) much resentment against the Harris government will earn Julie support. Clearly this race is between the Julie and the NDP incumbant. The PC candidate has almost no presence here.
05/28/99 Blair Falconer Email: bfalconer@fmarathon.com
A couple of thoughts: I agree the PC candidate has no chance. What little opposition Ms. Churley faces will be from Ms. Wang-Morris -- but the correspondent above who said that Ms. Wang-Morris has a 'huge following' in the riding may be wearing rose-coloured glasses. Knowing enough insider info to be able to say that Wang-Morris had a 'sign-printing problem' may help in putting a bit of a spin on Wang-Morris' problems.
A friend of mine got a visit from Wang-Morris and was impressed by her energy and intelligence -- but was deeply unimpressed with her detailed breakdown of the riding's demographics and a straight boilerplate Liberal set of campaign promises. Knowing the riding's Chinese residents historically don't vote is not the same as promising something specific for them other than a Chinese MPP. Wang-Morris should have known better, given her involvement in the Riverdale Hospital saga -- but Churley was there, too, and won't lose votes over that issue. Stick with Churley as the winner here.

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Last Updated 19th May 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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