Carleton

	Beauchamp, Chris Mark
	Dawson, Tom
	Ferguson, Ethan
	Ghamari, Goldie
	St. Denis, Kevin
	Stocki, Rob
	Zulinski, Cody

Incumbent:

		Goldie Ghamari
Population (2016):			102918
Population (2011):			89522
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		GOLDIE GHAMARI
		25,798	51.33%
		COURTNEY POTTER
		11,308	22.50%
		THERESA QADRI
		9,768	19.44%
		GORDON KUBANEK
		1,985	3.95%
		EVAN NIGHTINGALE
		413	0.82%
		JAY TYSICK
		399	0.79%
		JEAN-SERGE BRISSON
		386	0.77%
		KEVIN HARRIS
		110	0.22%
		MARK DICKSON
		91	0.18%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		11,057	27.96%
		20,990	53.09%
		4,870	12.32%
		2,315	5.85%
	OTHERS	308	0.78%
	Total Transposed		39,540
Component Riding(s)
	Nepean-Carleton (59.16% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Carleton-Mississippi Mills (40.81% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Ottawa South (0.03% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Pierre Poilievre **
		32,147	46.30%
		Chris Rodgers
		26,518	38.20%
		Kevin Hua
		6,479	9.30%
		Gordon Kubanek
		3,423	4.90%
		Alain Musende
		792	1.10%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Pierre Poilievre
		27,762	46.90%
		Chris Rodgers
		25,913	43.70%
		Kc Larocque
		3,632	6.10%
		Deborah Coyne
		1,932	3.30%

	30/05/2022	Kanata Carleton Voter 174.112.192.57
How a riding re-elects a candidate who was disbarred is beyond me, but take a bow Goldie. Editor's Note: Ghamari was not disbarred, but had her licence to practice law suspended by the Law Society of Ontario in March 2021.
	25/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
This area has been PC since the 1920's. That doesn't change here in 2022.
	18/05/2022	Résident 142.113.145.121
Only in Canada Cana a disbarred lawyer run for politics :)
	27/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
Tom Dawson is a strong candidate for the Liberals and PC incumbent Goldie Ghamari has had her share of embarrassment, but this is a safe PC riding (at least by Ottawa standards!) and she'll hold on.
	17/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Even in majority, Carleton reflected the Ottawa-area's shift away from the FordCons (notionally losing almost 2 points from '14). And Skippy or no Skippy, I'd allow for a majority-less Ghamari in '22, if only as a token reflection of population growth and the nature thereof--but the Tories can still rest easily, given what they might view as the joke of an opposition situation they faced in '18 (*NDP* 2nd?!?). But one real emblem of the bizarre Lib-collapse electoral dynamics that year (as well as those of promiscuous-progressive Millennial new-homeowners) is how the megapoll covering the heart of the Findlay Creek newburb went NDP in a 3-way-supermarginal circumstance.
	02/04/22	Stevo 164.177.56.215
This being the seat of the likely next leader of the federal Conservatives cements the region's blueness. Easy win for the PCs.
	25/02/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Goldie Ghamari isn?¢â‚¬â„¢t that high profile at queen?¢â‚¬â„¢s park but riding has deep tory roots and held by high profile mp Pierre Poilierve at federal level. So likely to stay pc provincially
	12/10/21	Chris N 69.77.168.248
This is the PC's strongest riding in the Ottawa area. It will stay blue in 2022.
	07/06/21	Cassius 192.95.205.113
Carleton is a predominantly urban Riding with growth coming from the urban parts of Ottawa. The growth however is exurbam and not suburban. The new residents moved to the country to get out of the city, not to bring the city with them. While the Conservatives MAY have lost some support in the suburbs, they are as strong as ever with rural and exurban voters. On a local level, Ghamari has done a good job communicating with the riding. She is visible at community events in all parts of the community, and has good support from community municipal politicians, service organizations, clubs and businesses. She has done a truly admirable job of somehow representing the Conservative brand without tainting herself with Ford's messes, and shares Skippy Polivier's supporters without wearing any of his sleaze or crazy. These are not easy accomplishments. She has also shown herself more than strong enough to stand up to stand up to Randy Hillier's few, but loud allies in the riding. The local organization is strong and should run a really good campain for her. She is probably one of the few candidates in this election who is probably better off with her picture on the signs. A great rookie MPP with a bright future.
	06/06/21	Jeremus von Stroheim 99.251.36.14
One of the wealthiest riding in Ontario, and the safest for conservatives in Ottawa region. And while it may not be as conservative as it once was, the last time it went liberal still was in 1867. Easy conservative hold.