Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:04:06

Constituency Profile


Bleiken, Shandi

Bronson, Amy

Harder, Rachael

Hepworth, Grant

Slingerland, Marc

Watson, Stephnie


Rachael Harder

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2975.08 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rachael Harder 3232156.80%
Cheryl Meheden 1167420.50%
Mike Pyne 1053218.50%
Kas MacMillan 14612.60%
Geoffrey Capp 7461.30%
Solly Krygier-Paine 2090.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 16143.92%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

13/10/19 R.O.
Rachael Harder was first elected in 2015 , riding includes city of Lethbridge so not entirely rural . likely to stay conservative this year as cpc ahead in Alberta .
16/09/19 A.S.
2015, I can understand; but if anyone outside this site still thinks Lethbridge is vulnerable in 2019, they're either projecting too much of Shannon Phillips' provincial endurance into federal results, or being too riled up by Rachael Harder's pro-life social conservatism (that is, she may be more visible and active than Jim Hillyer, but not necessarily in a *good* way, at least not if you're a Shannon Phillips diehard).
19/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Provincially this area has had a tendency to throw a curveball and maybe some day that will start to translate federally, but this riding is too big for the small urbanized areas to have much affect, and that would have to be in an election that was fairly good for the Liberals in Alberta anyway. This won't be. Also, Rachel Harder has become fairly popular in her own right.
19/04/19 Sam
It seems as if some people outside this site think this one of the more vulnerable Conservative ridings. Perhaps that's because it's the most vulnerable Conservative riding in non-metropolitan Alberta, but that's exactly the point, the Conservatives aren't going to be losing in rural Alberta.
12/03/19 Stevo
At some point in the future, maybe 10-15-years from now, as Alberta eventually adds more seats in future redistricting and this riding contracts into urban Lethbridge without the surrounding rural/exurbian expanse, and the Liberals or NDP acquire a leader not hostile to the resource industry, this will be a swing riding. Until that time, this stays CPC blue in a walk.
26/02/19 Craig
While the Liberals might do okay in the city of Lethbridge, the Conservatives will still probably win most urban polls. Outside city limits, the CPC will likely get 90% or more of the vote (unless the PPC or a separatist can undercut them). It won't be the extreme blowout of the rural ridings, but it should still be a runaway win for the Conservatives. It is Alberta, after all...
23/02/19 M. Lunn
Although this includes Lethbridge which has a large university, the surrounding areas including many Mormon towns where the Tories often top 90% so they should easily hold this. Also Rachel Harder unlike their previous MP Jim Hillyer has been quite visible and active so that should work in her favour. In addition with the anger towards the Liberals and NDP over pipelines, only a few central Calgary and central Edmonton ones might be competitive, outside the two cities solid Tory.

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