Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:04:02

Constituency Profile


Brunner, Kira

Graham, Roberta Marie

Houle, Alain

McFadzean, Robert

Stubbs, Shannon

Swanson, Jeffrey

Watson, Mark


Shannon Stubbs

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



31324.35 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Shannon Stubbs 3988272.80%
Garry Parenteau 750013.70%
Duane Zaraska 551310.10%
Danielle Montgomery 12832.30%
Robert George McFadzean 6011.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1910.46%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (52.79% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Westlock-St. Paul
   (35.43% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Fort McMurray-Athabasca
   (11.78% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

13/10/19 R.O.
Shannon Stubbs was first elected in 2015 in this mostly rural riding , been conservative for sometime and likely to stay cpc this year.
16/09/19 A.S.
What *might* be interesting to talk about is that even *this* riding was touched by the provincial Notley NDP wave--and inevitably, Jessica Littlewood was trounced by nearly 2:1 in her Fort Sask-Vegreville reelection bid. And the 29% she got was still likely more than double what we might expect from *any* non-CPC candidate in Lakeland.
13/07/19 Sam
Lakeland was an interesting choice of name for the riding, if you don't know the area it sounds invented. When it comes to the federal result, again, we'll have to invent something interesting to talk about.
08/04/19 Laurence Putnam
I guess if we want to try to maintain some enthusiasm and suspense we could always discuss how well the PPC campaign might potentially perform?
Doesn't change that it will still be the Tories by 50+ points.
18/02/19 JW
Rural Aberta riding. Enough said.

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