Election Prediction Project

Edmonton West
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:03:45

Constituency Profile


Armstrong, Matthew

Johnston, Kerrie

McCauley, Kelly

Pearce, Jackie

Steuber, Patrick


Kelly McCauley

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



104.72 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kelly McCauley 2637049.30%
Karen Leibovici 1864934.90%
Heather MacKenzie 695513.00%
Pamela Leslie Bryan 10371.90%
Alexander Dussault 3410.60%
Peggy Morton 1050.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 730.19%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton-Spruce Grove
   (80.58% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton Centre
   (19.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/19 A.S.
The Liberals actually had a star candidate here in 2015 in former MLA Karen Leibovici--that she failed while Boissenault and Sohi succeeded has something to do with Edmonton West being both too suburban and insufficiently ethnoburban (though Anne McLellan's constituency *did* extend into here in part back in the day, so Edmonton West isn't totally devoid of recent Liberal history). And if not '15, *definitely* not '19.
12/09/19 R.O.
Mike Lake has been an mp for a while and should keep this riding for conservatives.
25/02/19 Sam
Apart from the more exurban Sherwood Park and Wetaskiwin ridings, Edmonton West appears to be the best for Conservatives. Edmonton has gone NDP provincially but this really is not likely to translate into seats, given the fact that areas the NDP showed strength in still went overwhelmingly Conservative in the later 2015 Election. There is some indication the Conservatives may not gain all of the Edmonton ridings they do not hold but West was still a decent win for them and with an incumbent this time round, they should hold it.

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