Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:00:02

Constituency Profile


Aldinger, Ray

Ames-Sinclair, Jordan

Dewar, Dale

Normand, Éric

Plummer, James

Scheer, Andrew

Sparrowhawk, Tracey

Szuchewycz, Kieran


Andrew Scheer

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



13023.18 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Andrew Scheer ** 1648644.70%
Nial Kuyek 1114430.20%
Della Anaquod 840122.80%
Greg Chatterson 8522.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1270.42%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (97.71% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
   (0.45% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.29% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Whatever your feelings on Scheer 1 thing's for sure he's not losing this riding.CPC hold.
16/10/19 R.O.
All the major party leaders are largely safe in their own ridings this year with the exception of Maxime Bernier who faces a stiff challenge in his Quebec riding. I don’t see the ndp or liberals being able to mount a serious challenge here.
16/10/19 odude22
I’ve been thinking that this riding might be in play now with the recent rise in the polls for the NDP. Andrew Scheer has never ‘run away’ with this riding, even with the NDP vote collapse in 2015, he was only 5,000 votes ahead of the NDP candidate. The liberals outperformed themselves by 18% in this riding last time, and if that support went behind the NDP, this could be very interesting to watch on election night.
12/10/19 Cal
This will be the talk of election night. A collapsing Liberal vote mixed with an angry and engaged Indigenous vote will send Scheer looking for work.
15/09/19 The Jackal
Will Anderw Scheer be Prime Minister after October 21.maybe. Will he be the MP for this riding absoultelly
14/09/19 R.O.
Andrew Scheer isn’t likely to campaign much in his own riding as he’s now party leader but has done well here since first being elected in 2004.
14/09/19 RJM
Global TV Regina reports that the Green Party candidate is in trouble over anti-Semitic remarks. My prediction - Sheer holds.
27/08/19 A.S.
It would indeed likely require a byelection, and maybe a provincial-politics mood that decides against One Moe Time, for this to be NDP-viable--if even that; trouble is, this is the last of the true "Saskatchewan Rurbans", and as it now stands it'd take a lot of urban vote-plumping, a sturdy consensus turnout on the reserves, and maybe some token Qu'Appelle Valley rural-creative-class leanings to tilt the whole shebang orange. Though for Scheer to fall short of 45% in 2015 might mean it's not *as* hopeless a cause as it looks...in Scheer's absence, of course.
17/04/19 Craig
It should be an easy hold for Andrew Scheer, since he should do fairly well in the urban polls and annihilate the competition outside Regina city limits. He probably won't spend much time here as the focus will be on the national campaign, but it won't matter much. The Liberals and NDP are both in big trouble (the treatment of Erin Weir next door won't be forgotten and Trudeau is loathed here).
With polls showing the Conservatives having a lead nationally, if it is becoming clear that Scheer is heading for 24 Sussex, most likely there will be a hometown bounce. Even without winning, he'll be leader as long as the CPC gains significantly or holds the LPC to a minority (much more likely). Regardless, this is solid blue.
12/04/19 Sam
He's the CPC leader in a good year for them, and has proven he can win in difficult times. He won't lose now, and I don't think he'll resign either.
27/03/19 Laurence Putnam
No question Scheer wins the seat; whether or not he can win the federal election, or at least reduce Trudeau to a minority, is the bigger question. I disagree with the previous poster that Scheer will walk away, regardless of result. He's been in politics his whole life; what does he do if not this? The only other job he ever had was selling insurance for a year. This simple fact is one of Scheer's greatest vulnerabilities, at least in my mind...on the other hand he's not Justin Trudeau so that's a plus. I would expect like John Diefenbaker or Joe Clark, Scheer is a career politician who continues to hold this seat for another 25 or 30 years, barring some other sort of political appointment.
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
Even if he weren't leader, Scheer would likely be back over 50% in this riding anyway this time.
I have no doubt that this seat will go Conservative on Oct 21st of this year. I also have no doubt that there will also be a by election in this seat early next year.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Regardless of how the Tories fare nationally, Scheer has never had any trouble winning this and with Regina being a three way split while rural areas solidly Tory, win or lose this fall, he should be going back to Ottawa. The real question is will he remain in stornaway (most likely outcome) or move to 24 Sussex (possible but not most likely outcome).
17/02/19 JW
Scheer took the riding from NDP big beast Lorne Nystrom in 2004 and has held it with comfortable margin since. His margin will only go up now that he is leader.

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