Election Prediction Project

Winnipeg South Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:06:10

Constituency Profile


Bateman, Joyce

Beddome, James

Carr, Jim

MacDiarmid, Jane

Marynuk, Linda

Shearer, Elizabeth


Jim Carr

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



45.01 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jim Carr 3199359.70%
Joyce Bateman ** 1510228.20%
Matt Henderson 47999.00%
Andrew Park 16773.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3210.69%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Winnipeg South Centre
   (85.85% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Winnipeg South
   (14.15% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

12/09/19 A.S.
If StBon's historic Liberalism is more akin to Ottawa-Vanier, WSC's Liberalism represents a newer, more urbane strain more akin to (as mentioned) Quadra and St. Paul's, and one which really took definitive federal root during the Lloyd Axworthy years (and which has come to be provincial Ground Zero as well). And, reinstated after the Bateman blip, it doesn't look to be re-blipped by Bateman.
26/07/19 Laurence Putnam
I would say that if it comes down to it, Carr ought to be safe, probably the safest Liberal in Manitoba in fact, owing to his Cab Min profile. Any Liberal in this riding ought to be OK especially with such a weak NDP right now, but even if it's all going pear shaped for the Libs in the West right now, Carr's profile ought to see him through.
18/04/19 Sam
Jim Carr is safe here; a margin of 32% should still be insurmountable even with his profile and the Liberal majority last time. Joyce Bateman is running again but she's no major asset to the Conservatives. Liberal hold.
06/03/19 MF
This affluent riding is normally safe for the Liberals and only flipped narrowly during the Iggy '11 debacle. It also includes River Heights the only reliable Liberal seat in Manitoba politics.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
Barely went Conservative during the 2011 Liberal meltdown so unless the Liberals fall to third place they should hold this. In many ways like many upper middle class urban ridings such as Toronto-St. Paul's and Vancouver-Quadra it is too wealthy to vote NDP, too educated to vote Tory.

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