Election Prediction Project

Winnipeg North
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:06:03

Constituency Profile


Doyle, Kathy

Ham, Jordyn

Hizon, Henry

Lamoureux, Kevin

Mason, Kyle

Ong, Victor

Rajagopal, Sai Shanthanand

Taylor, Andrew


Kevin Lamoureux

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



37.26 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kevin Lamoureux ** 2340268.90%
Harpreet Turka 519315.30%
Levy Abad 454313.40%
John Redekopp 8262.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1250.47%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Winnipeg North
   (95.33% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Kildonan-St. Paul
   (4.67% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberals should hold here. Lamoreux seems to be a good MP.
14/09/19 R.O.
Kevin Lamoureux has been mp for sometime and well known, doesn’t seem like a seat the other parties are targeting .
13/09/19 Marco Ricci
The Conservatives announced today that they have removed their candidate in Winnipeg North, Cameron Ogilvie, for past social media posts about Islam:
12/09/19 A.S.
Further measure of the power of the Lamoureux name: that Kevin's daughter Cindy absolutely trounced the NDP's Ted Marcellino in Tyndall Park's provincial battle-of-the-incumbents. Basically, it's like the Ford name relative to Etobicoke North (Renata likely excepted)
16/07/19 Laurence Putnam
I expect Lamoreux will take a haircut off his almost 70% total from last time; I'd expect to see a better return for the NDP this time - but Lamoureux's victory is certain.
01/04/19 Craig
This may not be a ‘natural’ Liberal riding (demographics would strongly favour the NDP) but Kevin Lamoureux is incredibly popular here. He also has more of an independent mind so NDP voters really like him and even Conservative voters (mainly in the northern part of the riding) don't mind him. That should insulate him from any problems with the Trudeau and Liberal brands.
As a result, he should win big once again, regardless of the Liberal fortunes nationally. After all, he even survived 2011 and provincial disasters. If he retires or returns to provincial politics though, this should flip back to the NDP. But, for now, safe Liberal.
24/02/19 Sam
The NDP used to dominate in this area, but collapsed in 2015 having narrowly lost even in 2011. Given there is little sign of resurgence, the incumbent Kevin Lamoureux should win again.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
This is generally an NDP friendly area, but Kevin Lamoureux is very popular and survived the 2011 Liberal meltdown so unless he decides not to run again, Liberals should hold this. Once he goes, then I could see this returning to the NDP.

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