Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:44

Constituency Profile


Campbell, Lori

Chagger, Bardish

Traub, Erika

Wright, Kirsten

Zhang, Jerry


Bardish Chagger

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



72.62 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bardish Chagger 2975249.70%
Peter Braid ** 1931832.30%
Diane Freeman 892814.90%
Richard Walsh 17132.90%
Emma Hawley-Yan 1380.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3660.68%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Catherine Fife * 2731550.54%
Dan Weber 1697331.41%
Dorothy Mccabe 657712.17%
Zdravko Gunjevic 26134.83%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3570.81%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold as Trudeau's house leader will win this seat again.
28/09/19 Eric Leblanc
A riding poll by Mainstreet put Chagger strongly in front. Looking like a lock for her so far.
17/08/20 A.S.
The 'doesn't usually vote incumbents out' judgment may refer to Elizabeth Witmer's (and maybe, presently, Catharine Fife's) provincial endurance; but I suspect that retirement stood in the way of such inevitability provincially in 1990 and federally in 1993. That said, when it comes to likely safety and base of support, one might as well refer to Chagger as 'Red Fife' (and 'more popular than Telegdi' would be positively astronomical relative to the against-the-grain narrowness of Telegdi's defeats in both '08 and '11). And actually, since the riding *does* have some campus-town Green base that was good for double-digit shares a decade ago, it'd be interesting to see the federal NDP relegated to 4th in Fife's own turf--though I wouldn't bet on it. (And particularly if we're to believe polls suggesting the Jagmeet Dippers are actually doing *better* in Ontario than the Mulcair Dippers in '15--by that barometer, and assuming the Ford toxins endure in the CPC camp, we could see the NDP in *second*, instead.)
27/04/19 Sam
The safest seat for the Liberals in the region, at least federally. At the moment, the Liberals are hanging on enough that they shouldn't need to worry about this, but that could change. Generally though, a Liberal hold seems by far the likeliest option, even if the other Kitchener ridings are all competitive.
13/04/19 OttawaGuy94
Even in 2011 the Conservatives barely won compared to the Liberals. Chagger is more popular than Telegdi as well, and she should hold.
16/03/19 Craig
Compared to more working class, western or rural ridings, I don't think SNC-Lavalin is a big issue in Waterloo. This is the most highly educated riding in Ontario west of Toronto with a large 'creative class' dynamic. That alone should keep it out of Conservative hands in the era of Trump and Brexit. Unless the NDP nominate Catherine Fife, they aren't a factor either. By default, this should stay solidly in the Liberal column.
25/02/19 seasaw
This is a riding that could go either way. Historically the riding doesn't usually vote incumbents out, but it has happened. At the moment, the Liberals are in the drivers seat, but that could change, especially if the SNC-LAVELIN scandal starts bleeding Liberal support
22/02/19 Kumar Patel
Safe Liberal.
A weaker NDP campaign will only help Bardish Chagger.

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