Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:29

Constituency Profile


Abbott, Elizabeth

Byard, Ivan

Choudhary, Zia

Dabrusin, Julie

Dos Remedios, Tara

Kladitis, John

Lee, Min Sook

Tolley, Chris


Julie Dabrusin

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



19.75 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Julie Dabrusin 2353142.30%
Craig Scott 2232540.20%
Benjamin Dichter 54789.90%
Chris Tolley 26184.70%
John Richardson 12752.30%
Elizabeth Abbott 3540.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3870.80%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Peter Tabuns * 3293864.25%
Patricia Kalligosfyris 813115.86%
Li Koo 721614.07%
Andrew Trotter 22484.38%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 11892.76%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Another NDP gain in Toronto. I was surprised that the NDP lost here in 2015. I think they win the seat back in 2019.
15/10/19 Eddie E.
A toss-up to start the campaign, but the NDP's resurgence in English-Canada combined wth a strong candidate in Cash (and a weak Liberal incumbent) means that the NDP will claw this one back - putting an end to Liberal dreams of another complete sweep of Toronto.
12/10/19 Bo
With the NDP surging as of late (the latest DART poll had them at 25% in Ontario!), this will be one of the first seats that they pick up, especially since they're running a star candidate in well-known filmmaker Min Sook Lee.
11/10/19 Nick M.
Start of the election I say this was a Liberal no doubter, all has changed from the debate.
Orange Crush in 2011 started 2 weeks from election day, and the latest Mainstreet, Dart Polls suggest a strengthening NDP vote.
I throw this one to the NDP.
10/10/19 Ontario Voter
After walking through this riding on the weekend it’s clear that the amount of NDP signs far outnumber the Liberal ones on private property. I think after Singh’s strong debate performance and rising poll numbers from the low to mid and upper teens should be enough to land this seat back into the NDP column.
09/10/19 Riverdale resident
Apologies for the 3rd post - but serious post-debate momentum with the NDP now. There is no way Toronto will stay 100% Liberal. And the first seat to go will be this one.
Federal Election Polling (Post Debate):
LPC: 31% (-3)
CPC: 31% (-3)
NDP: 18% (+4)
GPC: 11% (-)
PPC: 3% (+1)
Leger / October 9, 2019 / n=2150 / Online
(% chg w Sept 30)
By the way, I meant to post last time re the T-D Green campaign. Locally it is about as visible as in the last 2-3 campaigns - i.e. not very. The Greens won't be a factor. And in T-D, there is no reason to think they would disproportionately take from the NDP in any case. Lack of effective climate change policy is a reason not to vote Liberal (Trudeau = Mr Delay, as Singh effectively framed it in the debate). Have heard this worry from several Liberal-leaning friends and neighbours.
08/10/19 Mizisuga
Singh's good performance in the commission debate is sure to influence urban ridings, and it will boost chances of NDP success in their traditional strongholds in Toronto.
02/10/19 cjmars
I saw so many NDP signs and hardly any liberal signs. I strongly believe the NDP will win this time.
30/09/19 South Islander
Forum recently released a poll showing the NDP at only 10% in Toronto! For comparison, the NDP won 20% in Toronto in 2004 when the late Jack Layton was the only New Democrat elected in the City and only won by a narrow 5% margin. Danforth may be the NDP's best shot at a seat in the City, but it is starting to look like a pretty remote one. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/3045/fed-hr-toronto-sept-2019/
30/09/19 Chris N
I give a lot of credit to the NDP sign team. Similar to 2015, they seem to be winning the sign war. And like 2015, I still think they will run short of victory. With Toronto-Danforth arguably being Toronto’s biggest NDP stronghold of the last twenty years, they have a very reliable and loud base, as indicated by the sea of orange signs and large pool of volunteers. However, like 2015, I think the Liberals will win by gaining the support of the “softer” NDP/left-of-centre voters, who, fearing a Conservative government, will vote strategically. I'm changing my earlier prediction of Too Close to Call to Liberal, with Dabrusin winning by 5-10%.
26/09/19 Riverdale resident
Sticking with my original prediction. There is a long list of reasons why locals would not vote for Trudeau - for example the pipeline, the SNC Lavalin conflict and his dreadful treatment of senior female ministers, breaking his promise re PR, and of course blackface. This riding has a large east Asian community, and of course a large ethnic Chinese community as well, who will both no doubt respond much more positively to the NDP candidate and leader.
The gentrified areas may possibly have become slightly more Liberal (and Conservative) since 2015, but the provincial Liberal defeat in 2018 was by over 25,000 votes - that is a huge margin.
24/09/19 Gerrard Scared
Julie will hang on here. Min Sook Lee is a strong candidate for the Dippers and will probably give the strongest fight out of the downtown ridings against Liberal incumbents, the NDP numbers currently in Ontario aren’t high enough. Tolley also will steal some typical NDP votes as well given the Greens are higher in Ontario than they were in 2015.
As much as Jack’s memory is still alive here, the demographics actually have moved in a way to make this a more competitive riding and never a slam dunk for the NDP. I’d say Julie wins by a larger margin than she did in 2015, 5-7 points is my prediction at this stage.
22/09/19 jeff316
Without a star local candidate running for the NDP, there is no reason for locals to vote against the Liberals led by Trudeau. Not even close.
04/08/20 A.S.
Given gentrification and everything, the matter of T-D being 'ancestrally NDP' at this point is overrated, whatever the provincial (or municipal) results--Jack Layton definitely skewed the post-Y2K federal picture (and Peter Tabuns' incumbency did likewise provincially in '18, so I wouldn't read *too* much into the Libs' third place there); while of the 2015's two giant-killing Julie D.'s, Dabrusin's probably equipped herself better than Dzerowicz. And maybe more to the point, John Tory held this territory fairly comfortably in both 2014 and 2018's mayoral races. In fact, of the NDP's targeted 'Toronto three', it's definitely possible that *this* and not Parkdale-High Park, will be the odd one out. (Not 'probable', but 'possible'.)
06/04/19 Craig
On paper, this should be a good result for the NDP. Fundamentals and the national campaigns will be key here, since both the Liberals and NDP have basically 'generic' candidates - no Dennis Mills or Jack Layton involved. It really depends on if the damage to the Liberals from SNC-Lavalin continues and who the top progressive party is. This could be anything from a narrow Liberal win to a blowout NDP win.
Gentrification has diluted the NDP lean of Danforth though, but they are willing to move en masse from the Liberals to the NDP if the Liberals are weak (as we saw provincially). The Conservatives are completely irrelevant here on a local level, but since they are hated so much - especially in the populist era (they tie them to Donald Trump even!) - this is definitely an ABC riding even if there is no danger of them winning locally. Too early to call.
04/04/19 Chris N
If the NDP can win back seats in Toronto, this will be probably be the first one. This was a surprising win for the Liberals in 2015, even with the Liberal Trudeau tide. Toronto-Danforth has long been considered Toronto’s NDP stronghold. However, it should be noted that it took a federal leader running to reclaim the seat for the NDP federally, and other than the Orange Wave in 2011, Layton never won the riding with massive margins. The competitive NDP riding nomination suggests that the party brass things they can win back Toronto-Danforth. I expect this to be a very close race come October.
27/03/19 Riverdale Resident
The provincial result is instructive here - the Liberals actually managed to finish 3rd behind the Conservatives, a stunningly bad result for a left-leaning riding like Toronto Danforth. It was also the biggest margin of victory for the provincial NDP in the entire province.
With Trudeau's sunny ways a thing of memory, only a small fraction of those same Liberal votes have to bleed to the Conservatives (or NDP) to allow the NDP to regain the riding. Hard to see that not happening.
12/03/19 seasaw
I remember the last time, I was the only one who predicted a Liberal win, I was rediculed by some, but I was right. The Liberals have had a strong past here with Dennis Mills, he only lost a close race to Jack Layton, when Layton was the party leader. Seven years earlier, he annihilated Layton. The current Liberal MP, is no Dennis Mills, but the NDP doesn't have a candidate of Layton's caliber either, so, I'll predict this, if the Liberals win the election, they'll keep this riding, if not, NDP will take it
01/03/19 Sam
This is definitely going to be tight. There is no Jack Layton, or any other NDP star at the moment for Layton's riding, but that doesn't mean the NDP won't be competing. This is an ancestrally NDP riding, and this was seen in the provincial election, where the incumbent Liberals came third. The incumbent is additionally not the most effective Liberal MP, but another rank and file Liberal whose vote share will be prone to national and provincial trends. These trends suggest a drop in Liberal vote share, which could be enough to deny them the seat again.
01/03/19 odude22
If any riding in the GTA returns to the NDP, Toronto-Danforth will be it. The riding has long been one of the more left-leaning ridings in Toronto and Julie Dabrusin only won this riding 2.1% ahead of the NDP in 2015. In the 2012 by-election, NDP MP Craig Scott was elected with 59.4% of the vote, a 30.9% lead over the Liberals. Was Dabrusin's victory in 2015 simply due to the popularity of Justin Trudeau? Is that enough to get her re-elected in 2019? Since 1979, this riding has been contested 14 times (12 general elections, 2 by-elections). 9 of those were won by NDP candidates with significant margins (albeit 4 by the late Jack Layton), and 5 by the Liberals (3 of those during Jean Chr

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