Election Prediction Project

Spadina-Fort York
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:57:01

Constituency Profile


Fang, Frank

Maher, Dean

Ramirez, Marcela

Stewart, Robert

Vaughan, Adam

Yoon, Diana


Adam Vaughan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



12.47 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Adam Vaughan 3014154.70%
Olivia Chow ** 1504727.30%
Sabrina Zuniga 867315.70%
Sharon Danley 11372.10%
Michael Nicula 910.20%
Nick Lin 590.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3500.95%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.15% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Toronto Centre
   (6.85% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Chris Glover 2467749.62%
Han Dong * 1177023.67%
Iris Yu 1083421.79%
Rita Bilerman 18153.65%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 7392.14%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Adam Vaughn won this seat handily vs. Olivia Chow in 2015. In 2019 he has lesser known opponents, he'll win here tomorrow.
15/10/19 Chris N
This is a very safe Liberal seat. Even with the NDP trending upward, it would take a Wynne-level Liberal collapse for the NDP to win this green and blue glass tower dystopia. The NDP and Green candidates both have solid futures ahead of them, and held their own against the aloof Vaughan in the local debates. Still, it won't be enough, and I expect Vaughan to win by a 15-20% margin.
16/08/20 ohara
Spadina-Fort York is a safe Liberal riding unless we're about to see a repeat of the provincial election, especially with Adam Vaughan as MP. In fact if Spadina-Fort York was in existence in 2011 and Vaughan was the MP, he might have survived a la Hedy Fry in Vancouver. Well-heeled condo dwellers are socially liberal, but don't share the ideological outlook of the NDP. Even a lot of NDP voters are satisfied with Vaughan, a left-wing Liberal.
04/08/20 A.S.
Last year provincially, I entertained the idea (or potential) of the condofication trajectory ultimately turning this into a NDP-PC two-way race for 2nd--well, it *did* turn into a two-way race for 2nd, only it was PCs vs the Liberal incumbent! (Message being: promiscuous progressives gonna progress promiscuously.) So let me recycle that 2-way-for-second allowance for 2019 (and 3-way, if Green-mania goes like gangbusters--and Maher's got past-municipal-candidate profile). And unlike Han Dong provincially, Adam Vaughan is a near-cinch to *not* get the short end of the stick federally. NB: believe it or not, Spadina-Fort York saw 2018's highest provincial PC share among all the 'inner Toronto' ridings btw/the Humber and Victoria Park (and excluding St. Paul's)--that's what a condo explosion commutably close to the Financial District will bring you.
26/07/19 MF
This generally affluent, condo-dominated riding leans Liberal but will go NDP if they're the main option to stop the Conservatives. Adam Vaughan will easily re-take this riding filled with ‘downtown elites.’
12/06/19 Right Honourable Adult
More accurately, this is now an Adam Vaughan riding for as long as he would like it (or until the NDP sends in someone with the weight of a Mike Layton).
10/06/19 seasaw
I agree with RM, while the Liberal free fall seems to have ended for now, the NDP doesn't seem to have benefited. Greens and Tories may pick up a few votes, but it's not going to stop a Liberal landslide in this riding.
01/06/19 RM
I think the Liberals have stopped their free-fall nationally. Adam is well liked locally. The Liberal national campaign can still mess it up, and the NDP could still pull out some surprises. But this riding is not the old trinity spadina riding. It is filled with condos, expensive townhouses, liberal elites and progressive condo dwellers. Solid Liberal. Any growth will be for the Greens or Tories, but not enough to displace the Liberals.
10/04/19 Laurence Putnam
If Vaughan can beat Chow 2-1, albeit in a high watermark election for the Liberals, he'll more than likely do so again against a lower profile NDP candidate in what is expected to be the worst federal NDP campaign in 20 years.
08/04/19 RG
Solid Liberal seat. The Liberals would have to have a complete meltdown to lose (which is quite possible given their mishandling of the SNC-LAvalin file and Judy Wilson-Raybauld). People are disappointed with the Liberal right now, but this is a riding where progressive have no choice.
People aren't going to go with the Tories. The NDP would need to up its game here dramatically to make a dent.
20/03/19 Marco Ricci
Yes, as others have said below, I think this riding leans Liberal for the near future. Vaughan won here by a 2-1 margin last time, and that was against Olivia Chow -- one of the biggest NDP names in Toronto. If Chow couldn't come close to Vaughan, who in the NDP can beat him? It could happen, but it would take a big Liberal drop in Toronto, plus a star NDP candidate.
16/03/19 Sam
Although this might look high on the NDP target list, the Liberals and Adam Vaughan are great fits for this riding generally. It may get a lot closer but the Liberals should still win here in nearly all circumstances.
16/03/19 Craig
No matter the behaviour of Adam Vaughan, there's no way he loses this. The NDP would have to poll ahead of the LPC to have a chance (and become the anti-Conservative voice). The many new condo towers constantly going up are largely home to young professionals and creative class types who would naturally be Liberal voters, switching to the NDP (or Greens) strategically if necessary.
The Conservatives are irrelevant here with Ford very unpopular and Harper still fresh on their mind (and yes, Trump is tied to them too). In an era of right-populism and immigration an issue, that will be radioactive here more than almost anywhere else. In fact, I can see the Conservatives falling to fourth behind the Greens...
25/02/19 seasaw
I'm saying TCTC, for now, Adam Vaughan has been less than professional, but it might not effect his re-election chances. He may not even be the candidate this time around. We have to wait and see the magnitude of the scandal, if it effects the Liberals in an extremely negative way, it'll go NDP, otherwise it's going to stay Liberal
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Adam Vaughan may drive the right crazy, but he is a perfect fit for this riding full of promiscuous progressives (note I used to live here for about a decade, but now live in Vancouver Centre) and add to the fact the rapid construction of high end condos and loss of university area makes an NDP win here that much tougher notwithstanding their poor polling numbers.

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