|Could be a close race on Monday but I think Stanton holds this for the CPC.|
|Ready to call this myself. Aside from deferring to Teddy who lives in the riding, I had predicted Liberal momentum here - but the national campaign in Ontario is actually not strong enough. Hawes is a good candidate but Stanton should win by a reasonably similar margin.|
|Perhaps things here seemed tempting for the liberals at the start of the campaign when it looked like there might not be an ndp candidate for this riding after initial nominee decided to back out. and green candidate was forced to resign over controversial social media posts. But both those parties have candidates now and the race here seems like any other year, in what has been a conservative friendly riding and held by Bruce Stanton since 2006.|
|Update submitted October 11: All 6 parties have signs with the candidate's name now. I've also noticed that while the Conservative signs are both larger and more numerous (as well as better designed) the Liberal signs have excellent placement, suggesting the campaign manager is either skilled, or experienced. |
One thing that I am seeing is a few more Liberal signs per-house than I have in past elections in the riding, and a few less Tory signs. I'm also not seeing very many houses that did not have a Tory sign last week, have one this week, while Liberal signs keep popping up in new places. It suggests momentum.
Still, at this time, I think the Tories have the edge, but it is no longer out of the question that Stanton could lose.
I am personally voting Green. A large share of people I've spoken to within the riding are also voting Green, or, are thiking about switching to the Liberals if the riding is 'winnible'.
I still see the Tories winning. If that changes, I'll squeeze in another submission before the election.
|Lawn Sign report:|
Tory signs everywhere; Liberal signs in large number, competitive, but not as widespread, large, or numerous as Tory signs. Green signs can be found, but without the candidate's name. If you look hard enough you can even find CHP and PPC signs. I've yet to see a single NDP sign.
|The very public resignation of the presumptive NDP candidate will help Gerry Hawes, the Liberal candidate, in the riding. The Liberals have two campaign offices now open in the riding and are mounting a strong campaign. In 2015 the Liberals nearly took the riding, but were hurt by the provincial byelection that took place during the federal writ, siphoning off resources. This time they will not have that challenge, and will have weak competition on the left, while the Conservatives may lose some support to the PPC. Given these factors and how close the result was in 2015 with more challenging variables for the local Liberal campaign, and easier ones for the CPC, I think this riding is a toss up at this point.|
Additionally the Liberal candidate, Gerry Hawes is the former Liberal MP, Paul DeVillers'EA, and will have ties in the community to challenge the incumbent MP as a result.
NDP presumptive candidate resignation: https://www.orilliamatters.com/local-news/ndps-vetting-process-under-fire-after-simcoe-north-hopeful-backs-out-1668062
|Some of last year's PC underperformance perhaps had to do with the Liberals running a star candidate--in a hopeless cause, true; but that *could* have tokenly taken some of the votes that might otherwise have gone Tory. Also, with the last redistribution's excision of Oro-Medonte the riding's got somewhat less of the hereditarily-Conservative base than it used to; thus I wouldn't altogether discount Libs' hopes for striking that "Paul DeVillers" chord again. Plus, I don't know how much token reflected-glory boost the Cons got last time from the concurrent provincial byelection that momentarily brought Patrick Brown to Queen's Park--and we all know what happened to *him*...|
|It may not be the safest riding by any measure, but it's certainly at this juncture more likely to return a Conservative than it is to return a Liberal. The provincial riding has consistently returned PC's to Queens Park and there is no reason to believe that federal Liberals have an edge here in this election.|
|While not the safest Conserative seat in Ontario I doub Bruce Stanton has much to worry about. The Liberals aren't polling in Ontario as well as 2015 and their support seems to be more concentrated in the 905 area and in the cities. Rural ridings lol Ke this area unlikely to flip red,|
|This isn't exactly the safest seat in Ontario for the Conservatives (it's unlikely they will get much more than 50% even in a good year) but it's probably fine right now. Bruce Stanton is a Red Tory who can win Liberal voters over, but even in the best of days this isn't an overwhelming win. We can't forget about the fact that Penetanguishene and Midland typically go for the Liberals and Orillia can swing either way.|
One wild card could be if the PPC can nominate a strong candidate and undercut Stanton on the right. They may not have the numbers to win, but they can do significant damage via vote splitting if they can get a good number of rural votes their way. I'd say this still leans Conservative though, after all they did still win in 2015 and provincially in 2014.
|To me, this seems one of the most vulnerable Conservative ridings, even more so than the riding next door. Bruce Stanton has crossover appeal, but I agree with Dr Bear's point about the margin of victory. That small margin is notable given the Conservative underperformance here provincially, and their limited increase in the York-Simcoe by-election. I think the Conservatives will win however, but the York region and rural east seems to be better than here.|
|While my instincts tell me that this should be a certain CPC hold, I can not ignore the 3.7 point margin from 2015. Don't ya think that is a bit close for a call this far out from the election? True the Liberals are down at the moment, but that will change (and change again) from now until election day. I am cautiously calling it TCTC.|
|This is my riding. While, full disclosure, I will not be voting for the Conservatives, I also know full well that so long as they take at least a third of the vote in this province, they will be taking this riding.|