Election Prediction Project

Scarborough Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:31

Constituency Profile


Cannis, John

Chaudhry, Irshad

Hakimzadah, Dordana

Kamal, Faiz

Vijeyaratnam, Jeremiah

Zahid, Salma


Salma Zahid

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



28.19 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Salma Zahid 2275350.50%
Roxanne James ** 1470532.70%
Alex Wilson 522711.60%
Katerina Androutsos 13843.10%
Lindsay Thompson 9602.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Scarborough Centre
   (91.82% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Scarborough Southwest
   (8.18% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Christina Mitas 1526638.45%
Zeyd Bismilla 1324733.36%
Mazhar Shafiq 879122.14%
Matthew Dougherty 10402.62%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 350.10%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Former Liberal MP John Cannis is running here as an independent. I think he finishes 2nd. This riding stays Liberal with Salma Zahid.
02/10/19 R.O.
There has been close races here before, but a mainstreet poll says not this year. With so many ridings in the Toronto area it perhaps didn’t make the oppositions target list of ridings and there focusing effort elsewhere.
Mainstreet Research polls suggest big Liberal lead in Scarborough Centre, By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Oct 1, 2019 1:01am
01/10/19 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet said on Twitter today that their poll reveals a ‘blowout win expected here for Liberal incumbent Salma Zahid’.
05/08/20 A.S.
True to the Scarberia stereotype, Scarborough Centre looks set to be ho-hum, as it tends to be whenever the Libs are in a landslide position (federally in the Chretien-Martin years, provincially in the Brad Duguid years). The one thing that *could* make SC interesting is how it demographically fuels some notion of polyglot 'Jagmeetburbia'--but at this point, it's more a notion than anything concrete, even if something parallel played out in the form of the NDP's out-of-nowhere provincial second place last year...
10/06/19 seasaw
Liberal for now, however this is a riding that could flip. If the Tories are in a position to pick up 9-10 seats in 416, this will be one of them, but right now they aren't, so Liberal hold for now, though the prediction might change later.
16/03/19 Sam
This only really went Conservative in 2011 because of vote splits, and that vote has now consolidated around Salma Zahid and the Liberals.
07/03/19 Dr.Bear
Vote splitting between the Liberals and NDP allowed the CPC to win this riding in 2011. Something that was completely corrected in 2015. I do not see the Liberals being vulnerable in Scarborough Centre at this time (unlike in some other near-by ridings).
04/03/19 Kumar Patel
A Liberal stronghold that only went Conservative under the Ignatieff and Wynne meltdowns. In both instances, the Conservative won with less than 40% of the vote.

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