Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:44

Constituency Profile


DeVries, Irma

Fuhr, Roger

Krauter, Geoff

Mitchell, Pirie

Nater, John

Simmons, Collan


John Nater

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3580.29 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

John Nater 2225542.90%
Stephen McCotter 1948037.60%
Ethan Rabidoux 775615.00%
Nicole Ramsdale 13472.60%
Irma DeVries 7941.50%
Roger Fuhr 2190.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 8061.74%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Randy Pettapiece * 2373650.67%
Michael O'Brien 1438530.71%
Brendan Knight 506210.81%
Lisa Olsen 27465.86%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 17024.15%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
This area went PC during the days of the divided right. A united right should mean a CPC win here tomorrow.
18/10/19 D.M.
In 2015 this riding had no incumbent, a non-existent Green Party, and a national red wave, and still stayed Conservative. This time around John Nater is an incumbent, there is a well-known and strong Green Party candidate (Chief of Anaesthesia at the primary hospital) who will siphon votes from the Liberal candidate in Stratford, and a less favourable national picture for the Liberals. It will be a clear Conservative hold.
11/10/19 R.O.
John Nater is somewhat of a rookie mp who was first elected in 2015 in this mostly rural riding, likely to stay conservative this year.
18/08/20 A.S.
Nater succeeded in 2015; but it *could* be argued that the left spectrum was distracted by hoopla over a consummate Mulcair-era 'fed-up ex-Conservative' NDP candidate who wound up having his trollish past flung back in his face. And boy, was the polarization marked in 2015: except for a piddling '400', the Libs won *every single poll* within Stratford, while all the polls that surrounded it went blue. (And a measure of the Mulcair 'wet blanket' effect here and elsewhere is how once upon a time, the NDP could have been counted on *some* token polls even at such low numbers--but Justin outflanking the NDP on the left washed it all away. To the point where what was left might as well have been an inflated version of an Audrey-level hair-shirt-scraps figure.)
25/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Blue since 2003, the Liberals can't be realistically thinking that their first win here in 16 years is just around the corner. If that was going to happen it would have been last time. Even the Liberal base in Stratford won't be feeling as motivated to vote on Election Day as they did last time; so I suspect the margin will widen to the Tories' favour.
12/07/19 seasaw
A Conservative call here is a bit premature. Sure the old PC Party did win here when the right was divided. And the Liberals were close the last time but that was due to several factors, they probably won't get as many votes this time around. The one party to watch is the PPC, sure they won't even come close to winning but might just siphon enough votes from the Tories to ensure a Liberal victory
16/05/19 Sam
As has been said, this is a riding of two halves, but the Conservative supporting rural areas will keep this over the top. Unlike some of the surrounding ridings, this was Conservative in 2004, so although things have changed since then, it doesn't seem as if there was any scope for this to go Liberal last time, and there's certainly none this time.
01/04/19 Craig
This is by no means the safest Conservative seat in Ontario, but that is due entirely to Stratford which only makes up about 1/3 of the riding. In fact, this is probably one of the most polarized ridings in Canada. The Liberals will likely do very well among the creative class there, which will likely intensify with educated voters shunning the populist-right all the world over. However, that demographic hits a brick wall at city limits.
The other 2/3 of the riding is mostly rural and working class - a recipe for disaster for the Trudeau Liberals - and watch the blue team run up the numbers there, winning 60%, 70% or more in the non-Stratford polls. That will more than erase any Liberal voters in Stratford, allowing the Conservatives an easy win. SNC-Lavalin only strengthens the polarization.
16/03/19 PFR
The Progressive Conservatives first won the former riding of Perth Middlesex back when the right was divided in a by-election in 2003.
The current riding of Perth-Wellington has been Conservative since 2004. John Nater will keep this riding in the blue column in 2019.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Liberals will likely dominate Stratford which as an artsy town tends to favour progressive politics. The Tories will dominate everywhere else thus winning the riding.

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