Election Prediction Project

Oakville North-Burlington
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:55:05

Constituency Profile


Damoff, Pam

Dion, Nicolas

Houghton, Michael

Jubinville, Gilbert Joseph

Weir, Sean


Pam Damoff

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



87.16 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pam Damoff 2841546.70%
Effie Triantafilopoulos 2634243.30%
Janice Best 44057.20%
Adnan Shahbaz 9681.60%
David Clement 6661.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1220.26%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Effie Triantafilopoulos 2569146.41%
Saima Zaidi 1349624.38%
Alvin Tedjo 1348724.37%
Marianne Workman 20523.71%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8241.93%

17/09/19 Dr. Bear
I concur that this will likely be a conservative gain. While the CPC is currently polling slightly worse than what they did in the 2015 election, the Liberals are polling even further behind (albeit regaining ground as time progresses). If this holds true, then close 2015 races will flip blue (especially without a large pool of NDP voters for the Liberals to draw from).
11/08/20 A.S.
Right Honourable Adult has things backwards re ONB's "more Oakville than Burlington" quality; at this point, the riding's more CPC-compatible than *either* Oakville *or* Burlington, and that's directly due to its "nouveau affluent" characteristics, i.e. it's really more comparable to a York Region boomburb riding than the comparative "settledness" of its southern neighbours. (Indeed, the currently most comparable part of Oakville riding, Joshua Creek, is trending even more to the Cons than their traditional Eastlake stronghold.) Whether that actually carries through to the ballot box remains to be seen, and probably depends on how the new north-of-Dundas suburban frontier swings federally. It certainly was a shock in this kind of riding last year when the provincial NDP nearly tied the Libs for second--and yet the Lib candidate's now running for the provincial leadership...
16/07/19 seasaw
@Kumar Patel. The unpopularity of a premier hasn't always resulted in a federal party doing poorly, so it may or may not be a big factor. One also has to remember that the PM isn't that much more popular than the premier and this election may be more focu
10/07/19 Kumar Patel
I'm unconvinced that is a lock for the Conservatives. Doug Ford's unpopularity and weak NDP numbers should help the Liberal cause.
29/04/19 Sam
I wasn't expecting this to be called ahead of some of the others, but nevertheless I understand why it was. I agree with the admin and other posters, these low-hanging fruit are no longer the battleground despite their closeness, even with Pam Damoff as one of the stronger Liberal MPs. The Liberals would be better off investing into the Mississauga ridings or the other Oakville riding at this point; even if they held their current total they'd probably lose this, good candidacies like here and in King-Vaughan will not be enough.
21/04/19 seasaw
A prediction made on today's polls which might change as we get close to the voting day. The Liberals barely won the last time and that was a great year for them. We don't know if they'll be able to repeat their performance this time around. If the CPC were to pick up just one seat in Halton, this one would be it.
17/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
A riding that is more Oakville in culture than Burlington for, as you go past the QEW, all of Halton begins to look nuveau affluent. Even still, the Liberals didn't pick this up by much last go around and don't have Eve Adams around this time to make the other side look so petty. On the average, the riding isn't quite as conservative as Burlington, but is prime terriTory nonetheless!
04/03/19 Random Voter
Too early to tell, but I'm guessing the Conservatives have a slight lead in ONB for now. They lost last time without an incumbent candidate on the ballot by only 3.4% - that doesn't leave much wiggle room for the Liberals. Also, the Ontario PC Party won this riding by 22% last year.

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