Election Prediction Project

Mississauga Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:53

Constituency Profile


Alghabra, Omar

Micalef, David

Mikael, Milad

Reinoso, Hugo

Vezina, Greg

Walji, Sarah


Omar Alghabra

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



23.08 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Omar Alghabra 2837254.70%
Julius Tiangson 1743133.60%
Farheen Khan 49209.50%
Linh Nguyen 11292.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1220.29%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Mississauga East-Cooksville
   (36.85% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (31.31% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (23.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (8.24% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Natalia Kusendova 1786040.86%
Laura Kaminker 1204627.56%
Bobbie Daid 1110225.4%
Noah Gould 11492.63%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 12383.56%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think the Liberals will hold on here. Omar could be given a spot in cabinet should the Liberals be re-elected.
14/10/19 Mizisuga
I hold to my call of TCTC. First of all, there are no strong candidates, with Alghabra being a relatively quiet backbencher throughout his term. Therefore, voters will vote for party, not for candidate. The Liberals have dropped from mid 40s to mid 30s in Ontario polling, to the benefit of the other left wing parties, and this concerns Peel especially.
The riding can be split into 3 areas.
1. Downtown Mississauga: Whoever dominates here carries the riding. But this time around, the vote will be split as the NDP and Greens eat away at typically Liberal votes.
2. Erindale: Older suburbs, definitely leaning Conservative if using signs as evidence. NDP is not a factor here.
3. North of 403: Younger suburbs where the Liberals would usually have a strong lead, but due to the NDP’s newfound appeal to South Asian voters, the Conservatives may win a plurality here.
All that being said, Mississauga-Centre leans Liberal. But if the NDP continues to gather strength, this may be a surprise on the 21st.
07/08/20 A.S.
When it comes to Mississauga Centre's "Liberal-friendliness", I'd put Alghabra behind Bains and Fonseca from a safety standpoint--in fact, the riding's a bit like Willowdale in that the fast-growing and apparent left leanings of the MCC zone could potentially be counteracted by the predominantly single-family balance (and that's how it worked out provincially in 2018: MCC was more 3-way, the "regular" polls in the rest were solidly 40%+ PC). As for 2018's "Kaminker surprise": I suspect that'll mostly default federally incumbent-Lib this time, though I agree that the spectral notion of NDP viability in Mississauga is an intriguing one, and it's maybe even doable if a phantom "Jagmeet Peel" effect takes root...
29/05/19 Craig
Of the Mississauga ridings, this is probably the most Liberal-friendly, especially as more development occurs in the Square One area with densities increasing locally. Omar Alghabra is fairly well-liked locally which 'might' be able to get him over the top even if the Conservatives are heading to power. The CPC ceiling is probably around 40%, which would require some help to win with.
One possible warning sign may be the fairly strong provincial result for the NDP last year with a very controversial candidate - Kaminker overperformed the other NDP candidates in Mississauga. That may suggest the NDP may be finding some support locally with the new developments. That might split the vote enough for Mississauga Centre to swing blue. While I'd give a slight advantage to the Liberals right now, it's still a tossup overall.
08/04/19 Mizisuga
I would not judge this as decided yet. Previously I agreed my home riding would be a Liberal hold but now it seems that the result will only become clear on the eve of the election. Most of the ethnic communities are on the fence with slight leanings on way or the other, with some exc2ptions like the Eastern Europeans who are decidedly CPC.
07/04/19 Right Honourable Adult
Along with Navdeep Bains, Omar Algebra is almost certain to return to the Liberal benches later this year. Mississauga Centre is still a suburban riding, but has a large concentration of high-rises around Square One which will give the Liberals a critical boost. It would take a meltdown along with an NDP/Green climb to put this one into play.
16/03/19 Sam
Again, this could go Conservative in a blue wave, but it's also good territory for the Liberals and they only lost narrowly in 2011.
25/02/19 seasaw
One of those ridings that could go either way. Right now, according to the polls, CPC is doing well in 905, the question remains, who will be doing well the week before the vote

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