Election Prediction Project

London North Centre
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:31

Constituency Profile


Bokhari, Sarah

Dyck, Carol

Fragiskatos, Peter

Mansur, Salim

Prout, Dirka

Sorrenti, Clara


Peter Fragiskatos

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



58.66 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Fragiskatos 3242750.50%
Susan Truppe ** 1999031.10%
German Gutierrez 942314.70%
Carol Dyck 22863.60%
Marvin Roman 1450.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2110.39%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   London North Centre
   (92.47% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   London West
   (7.53% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Terence Devin Kernaghan 2575747.6%
Susan Truppe 1670130.86%
Kate Graham 850115.71%
Carol Dyck 24934.61%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 8291.81%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold. Aside from the 2011 Liberal meltdown this area has been Liberal since 1997.
16/10/19 R.O.
Whats interesting is London swung hard towards the provincial ndp in 2018 but federally they’ve never had much success outside of London Fanshawe. This riding also voted cpc in 2011 and Susan Truppe briefly mp but that win seems to be more of a fluke in a riding that has mostly been liberal. the peoples party also has an interesting candidate in this riding , Salim Mansur is a well known columnist and had tried to run for the cpc before being turned down. He may do better than an average Peoples party candidate but highly unlikely they achieve a breakthrough in Ontario especially in urban Ontario.
08/10/19 prognosticator15
A few changes have happened here since my summer posting, but the result will likely be the same. CPC has below 1% chance of getting it, its ultimate candidate being a parachuted and unknown 'Liberal light' party appointee - and yet another very 'political' scientist. If anything, she can get a portion of past Liberal vote, but a tiny one at best. Cons activists are angry at Scheer for screwing up the appointment process here and most of CPC vote will be PPC/ Salim Mansur vote; in fact, all PPC efforts in and around London seem to be concentrated here. NDP runs surprisingly strong campaign in all three London ridings, considering how low they were expected to fall, and as 2018 provincial election has shown, the pool of educated UWO leftists may not always be as strong as that of rude populist left closer to current NDP. NDP will likely win downtown ridings and possibly a few more where they did well in 2018. Fragiskatos has on his side the natural pool factor for most leftist to unite behind the Liberals, support of globalist intellectual establishment (whose agenda only PPC's Mansur seriously questions) and definitely the best and well funded party machine - and on a lighter side of things, a close resemblance to his ('Justin Bieber-Fidel Castro' cross, as discussed below) party leader which may even be a decisive winning factor. Greens are unimportant here. Like other coattail candidates, he has to work hard to prevent a PPC or an NDP upset, but ultimately, for the purposes of this side, I will keep a Liberal prediction on the basis of probabilities.
03/10/19 Gone Fishing
NOT saying anyone is going to topple Fragiskatos but this is one where there could be some sparks. The PPC actually has a real candidate here. Do I think he can win? NO, Do I think he can destroy the conservative chances. YES!
Like his neighbour in London West the liberal candidate here was a coattail Trudeau winner. I think the NDP could run another bartender student here and put up a good fight.
If Ontario drifts away from Justin Bieber-Castro-Trudeau this is one they may get maybe it even goes green it was a target in a byelections years ago that claimed to be possible.
Of course it could be that everybody shrugs off the leader and votes where their mom and dad always voted anyway so maybe I am wasting my type here. I just don't see this as booked to the red team just yet.
16/08/20 A.S.
Let's not make too much of Salim Mansur; "principle" or not, he probably has even less reach outside his right-of-centre chattering-class circles than Linda McQuaig did outside her left-of-centre chattering-class circles--and if there's any SW Ontario riding *not* naturally equipped for a PPC outperformance, even vs a young & inexperienced CPC candidate, it's London North Centre. Heck, even Fragiskatos' own newsie experience is more meaningful in the bigger picture...and in a riding that's very much naturally equipped for Lib outperformance by SW Ontario standards (y'know, one of two 2008 survivors, almost made 2011 as well, 2018's only provincial Lib 15% beyond Kitchener, etc)
25/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Liberals will win, and the odds are they would have anyway, but the present situation would indicate that they will win by default now as the Conservatives, (or at least Scheer's frightened minions in HQ) in a genuflection before the altar of political correctness, have decided they would rather give up the seat in order to virtue signal political correctness than create room in their ‘big tent’ party for the strong (and educated, researched, sourced and notated) opinions of a scholar in Salim Mansur.
Absolutely shameful the way the nomination process was handled. Conservatives will lose as so they should; I hope they trail badly.
Mansur is making an important symbolic stand for democracy by running instead for the PPC; whether you agree with him or not his participation in the public debate this way is a gift to 36 million Canadians who value freedom, free speech and the exchange of ideas. He won't win, but he will at least be heard despite Scheer's attempts to stop him.
19/07/19 Marco Ricci
Professer Salim Mansur, who was disqualified by the CPC for the Conservative nomination, was announced today by Maxime Bernier as the People's Party candidate for London North Centre. Will he take some votes from the Conservatives?
06/07/19 prognosticator15
Cons have now nominated a candidate, an 18-year old student, and I am afraid the fight is over before it started. The candidate is nobody, few will seriously campaign for him, and I suspect PPC will actually fight with NDP for a distant second place. It is now more about Cons splitting PPC vote on the right than the other way around. The decision by Cons, for whatever reason, to dump Salim Mansur whose positions are perhaps closer to PPC, and the fact Susan Truppe is not running again, kill the party's last chances. There is no comparable effect in any neighbour ridings, but here it will be Libs-NDP-PPC fight, with no one having ability to overcome Liberals' advantages.
01/04/19 Craig
It takes a total collapse in the Liberal vote for this seat to become competitive. London North Centre is the most educated and affluent riding west of Waterloo, and the only seat in ‘real’ Southwestern Ontario (i.e. beyond GO Transit's reach) that the Liberals can be reasonably considered a favourite in. SNC-Lavalin may hurt them badly in nearby ridings but they'll be insulated a fair bit here.
The Conservatives can't realistically expect more than about 32-35%, which means they'd need a perfect split to win here, while the NDP would need to hope the Liberals tank on a national scale to become the anti-Tory voice. With the NDP weak right now, by default this stays Liberal.
13/03/19 seasaw
As things stand right now, there is a very good chance that the Liberals will not be forming the next government, but things can change. But even if the Liberals lose the next election, they are going to hang on to this riding. The
NDP and the Tories aren't that strong in this riding and unless the Liberals have an epic collapse, they won't lose hers
08/03/19 Sam
This riding definitely favours the Liberals; they only lost it in 2011 and will only lose it again in a massive Liberal collapse. This is not the position the Liberals are currently in.
28/02/19 Kumar Patel
I'm surprised there is a contested nomination for the NDP in this riding. That being said, unless the Dippers are polling around 25% in Ontario, this riding will remain Liberal.
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
Woah, hold on! London North Centre TCTC? It took disastrous collapses in Liberal support for this to swing Tory (Federal in 2011) or NDP (Provincial in 2018). The Federal Liberals are not looking at the same kind of situation. While we are currently deep in the SCN-Lavalin scandal, the election is many months away and new issues will be on people's minds by then. Unless we are looking at a routing of the Liberals, this stays red.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
While this went NDP provincially and Tory federally in 2011, both were disasters for the Liberals. This is a quintessentially Liberal riding being middle to upper middle income, university, and urban central so unless they implode they should hold this.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster