Coenraad, Melissa
	McCaffrey, Justina
	McCrimmon, Karen
	Miller, Scott
	Purdy, Jennifer
Incumbent:
	Karen McCrimmon

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			110960 100846 40386 39293 764.83 km² 145.1/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Karen McCrimmon	32477	51.30%
	Walter Pamic	24829	39.20%
	John Hansen	4313	6.80%
	Andrew West	1704	2.70%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		27285	53.71%
		7765	15.28%
		13445	26.46%
		2307	4.54%
Other		0	0.00%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Carleton-Mississippi Mills    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Merrilee Fullerton	23089	43.19%
	John Hansen	15592	29.17%
	Stephanie Maghnam	9090	17.01%
	Andrew West	2827	5.29%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		14340	33.36%
		19598	45.59%
		6000	13.96%
		3052	7.10%

	19/10/19	Kanata Man 174.113.17.65
Well, it's just about election day and I'm still having a tough time figuring my riding out. Well respected Liberal MP looking for re-election in a riding that is traditionally conservative and where Justin Trudeau, like many places, is incredibly unpopular...viscerally so, even. I'm going to say Justina McCaffrey by a whisker, on the bases of the riding returning to form, some unusually strong Green and NDP candidates (at least for these parts) who will help split the vote, and Trudeau fatigue. That said, I take the points of other posters on this page with different views, and acknowledge that this could go either way. Best of luck to all.
	19/10/19	Tony Ducey 71.7.242.216
One of many ridings that will be fun to watch on Monday. I think both main parties have this 1 on their must win list. It will be close but I think that the Liberals squeak the win out here. Mccrimmon could become a minister if the Liberal return to government.
	18/10/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
The liberals do have a strong candidate in this riding but I feel like the riding is too naturally conservative to go liberal this year. Feel like this riding would only go liberal during a great year for them, it has voted conservative in every recent provincial and federal election except 2015. The new cpc candidate isn’t necessary high profile and has never been elected to parliament but I’m just not sure it matters much. Comments talk about how the riding would only elect someone with a sophisticated background but fail to mention this same riding elected Jack Maclaren as its mpp as recently as 2014. The green party and ndp are also likely to improve there numbers this year , the greens only got 2 % last time , I can’t see that happening this year. Although I think whatever the outcome it will be close either way.
	17/10/19	con@con.ca 67.68.63.171
This riding used to be conservative stronghold. After Gordon O'Connor retired, conservatives run losers and uneducated people in this hi-tech silicon valley riding. I mean you can't run a plumber or a dress maker against former soldier with a graduate degree from the university. Know your people!
	12/10/19	Sam 86.161.144.100
However well the CPC do, they'll struggle to gain ground here - this is still not a fertile region for conservatives, with the comparison to NoVA being a reasonable won as I said it was before. I expect McCrimmon to win again - it looks good on paper but the Conservatives' opportunities lie elsewhere. I actually don't think the poll of Carleton gives that many indications about here either, as tempting as it might be to draw some conclusions.
	07/10/19	Kanata Man 174.113.17.65
I live in this riding, too, and I'm hearing a real mix of things. While Karen McCrimmon remains a well-respected MP, the disgust I'm hearing about Justin Trudeau is very real, very widespread and very intense. It may be enough to push Justina McCaffrey over the top here. Lawn signs slightly favour McCaffrey and sentiment, as I said, is decidedly mixed. This one belongs in the TCTC column for now. A Liberal hold wouldn't shock me, but my sense at the moment is that the Cons take it back in a squeaker.
	03/10/19	Political Junkie 207.167.243.26
I'm not sure who decided that this should lean TCTC but I live in this riding and can say it's not close at all. 1) Karen is a respected M.P. who has brought a good number of investments to the riding, has been incredibly active on behalf of her constituents and she won alot of plaudits for basically spending weeks helping out with the massive flooding that happened in the NW part of the riding. She was also a huge help to Dunrobin during the tornado and that has not been forgotten there. 2) She won alot of respect too for how she handled the situation when the previous MPP for the area, Jack MacLaren, slandered her with crude sexual remarks at a community dinner in the rural area of the riding about 2.5 years ago. 3) She's a veteran, and a well-decorated one, whose service is well-known and highly regarded in the community. 4) Justina McCaffrey has done herself no favours with her friendship with Faith Goldy, nor did she do well when approached by reporters and she literally ran away, jumped in a car and it peeled out of the parking lot. The Faith Goldy issue isn't going away for her either and she's been pretty well in hiding since then. 5) At a recent debate in one of the more rural parts of the ward, McCaffrey flat out couldn't answer any questions about agriculture issues so instead resorted to reading verbatim talking points given to her by the party. She also promptly left after and didn't work the room. That was noted by many attendees and not in a positive way. 6) One of JM's supporters put up her sign and next to it a self-made sign saying that the residents of that house shoot every second Liberal. And, for the second time, national media was focused on Kanata Carleton and not in a positive way as it relates to the CPC candidate. 7) Karen won, yes in a wave, by 12 points in 2015. I expect that she'll hold this riding by 6 points this time out -- even voters soured on the PM aren't soured on Karen and that's something I am hearing quite often in the community.
	21/09/19	S.J. 142.113.233.94
This is one where both the Liberals and Conservatives have been canvassing constantly. Historically, this is a blue riding and the 2015 election was an exception. But Karen McCrimmon won here with 12 points to spare, and her Conservative challenger just got in hot water for being friends with noted white nationalist Faith Goldie. Furthermore, the Liberal ‘Kanata’ part of the riding is growing much faster than the Conservative ‘Carleton’ part. The Liberals should hold this one.
	18/09/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
A riding that should really be too close to call , the same riding is a very safe seat for the provincial pc’s . it rarely votes liberal , its mostly suburban areas and even has rural portions , its doubtful the liberals maintain 2015 numbers even with an incumbent . although I don’t know that much about the new cpc candidate Justina Mccaffrey.
	12/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
While her deal was arguably sealed by a bozo CPC opponent in '15, McCrimmon had already proven she was up to the task through an overperformance-by-2011-standards and a leadership bid under her belt--still, we're talking about a riding that was presumed to be Conservative bedrock under Gordon O'Connor; but it was an overwrought presumption, as it turns out. Sure, rural West Carleton remains bedrock; but now instead of the rural parts dragging Kanata rightward, it's Kanata overriding the rural parts. And while the riding remained PC provincially, the NDP's near-30% sort of backhandedly affirms why Kanata's well positioned to override the Con element these days--and creatively speaking, one might view MPP Jack MacLaren's provincial Trillium bid as a foreshadowing of the damage Mad Max's PPC can do to Con chances around these parts...
	06/04/19	Legolas 109.70.100.19
It will take a few more election cycles for the CPC to regain trust with public servants and Ottawa voters. Interesting note as well is that provincially the PC's lost support in Ottawa while gaining everywhere else. This is the only Ottawa seat other than the one they currently hold where I think the CPC might be able to win, as it has more voters working in the private sector tech industry rather than the government, but leaning LPC for now.
	26/03/19	Sam 86.28.79.130
The comparison of the Capital region to NoVa is quite apt - and I would expect the Liberals to win here in line with that trend. That trend has the Conservatives struggling to take this; it would take a swing that isn't really happening yet.
	07/03/19	MF 69.159.84.69
With the NOVA-ization of suburban Ottawa in recent years, this is trending Liberal. The Conservatives could take it though if the Liberals really tank.
	04/03/19	Kumar Patel 174.112.172.78
Liberal hold. Karen McCrimmon's distinguished military career will have some appeal to local Tories. The demographics of this riding also favour the Liberals.
	28/02/19	Craig 130.18.104.137
Advantage Liberals. The demographics of suburban Ottawa have changed in the last 10 years, but so have the makeup of conservative parties. With social issues and especially cultural populism on the forefront more than business issues, this affulent and highly educated riding becomes more favourable for McCrimmon. Like in all of Ottawa, populist parties do poorly these day. The provincial PC's regressed in only a handful of ridings compared to 2014, and this was one of them. Could the Conservatives take this seat back? It's possible, but I could see this seat staying red even if they go back to the opposition benches. In the era of Trump and Brexit, they want nothing to do with it here.