Election Prediction Project

Brampton North
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:49:45

Constituency Profile


D'Costa, Norbert

Edwards, Melissa

Frazer, Keith

Khanna, Arpan

Sahota, Ruby


Ruby Sahota

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



33.11 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ruby Sahota 2329748.40%
Parm Gill ** 1588833.00%
Martin Singh 794616.50%
Pauline Thornham 9151.90%
Harinderpal Hundal 1200.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1840.46%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (78.39% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (15.71% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Brampton West
   (5.9% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Kevin Yarde 1487737.55%
Ripudaman Dhillon 1438036.29%
Harinder K. Malhi * 841021.22%
Pauline Thornham 13663.45%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 3090.92%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
The Liberal candidate here has come under fire this weekend for accepting illegal donations. I think that hurts her chances for re-election. The NDP will win here.
13/10/19 R.O.
This riding has typically seen liberal/conservative races but one has to at least wonder about the ndp this year. As they did somehow win the provincial riding in 2018 although by a small margin and Singh is from Brampton. That being said feel its still mostly a race between liberal incumbent Ruby Sahota and cpc candidate Arpan Khanna. But its tough to figure out Brampton this year.
13/08/20 OpinionMan416
Partisanship aside, from a constituency support perspective, the incumbent's (Ruby Sahota's) office receives a failing grade. Disorganized, unhelpful, cares more about getting stats and contact information from constituents rather than actually working to resolve constituent issues. Then has the nerve to use that contact info to ask for support for her endeavours.
Secondly, I and many of my neighbours, were utterly disgusted with her "performance" during the Justice Committee meetings re: JWR/SNC-Lavalin. People weren't impressed and are not going to support perceived opportunistic puppeteers of a disgraced PM.
Thirdly, neighbours are increasingly getting fed-up with inflated costs of living, and it has become a top-topic of conversation locally. All signs locally are pointing to change.
06/08/20 A.S.
This is only "definitely the best Brampton riding for the Conservatives" if you take 2011's result too much at face value--remember that Parm Gill got a Ruby-Dhalla-backlash boost that year, and BN the only current Brampton riding to come predominantly from Gill's former riding. In fact, a good deal of it is the Jagmeet-spillover "Sikh belt"--which is a reason why former NDP leadership candidate Martin Singh chose to run here in '15; and of course, it helps explain why it went provincially NDP last year (ironically with the only *non*-Sikh member of the Brampton caucus). And that's not to state that it could go federally NDP now, so much as it's to state that the voter demographic might not be as "right" as it appears.
01/04/19 Kumar Patel
It's hard to foresee a situation in Brampton where Andrew Scheer will perform better than Doug Ford. The progressive vote will have to split perfectly for the Conservatives to win this riding.
14/03/19 PFR
Ruby Sahota has a high profile position as Government House Leader. However, she has been virtually invisible in the riding.
The Conservative candidate Arpan Khanna on the other hand was nominated early and is maintaining a high profile. On election day this is going blue.
08/03/19 Sam
This is definitely the best Brampton riding for the Conservatives and on a good night they should win it. Although it only went Conservative before in 2011 a victory should not be ruled out given their performance.

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