Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|Mark Eyking **
|John Douglas Chiasson
|Wayne James Hiscock
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(100% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|It will either go Liberal or Conservative, but I don't know which party will win. All the election aggregators say this is a safe Liberal seat. The Liberals got 70% last time so it is easy to assume that they would win but 2015 had a red wave hit Atlantic Canada plus Eyking was a well known incumbent. |
This time the Conservtives are running a well known MLA. Name recognition goes a long way in Atlantic Canada. So it's almost as if the Conservative is the incumbent in this riding. Also, there are local factors that are playing out here. There are two hospitals scheduled to be shut down in the towns of New Waterford and North Sydney/Sydney Mines. I drove up to those towns today and I saw no Liberal signs. New Waterford was about 80% Conservative signs and the rest were NDP. North Sydney/Sydney Mines were mostly for the Independent Candidate Archie MacKinnon (about 70 %) and the rest were Conservative. I saw no Liberal or NDP signs. I would say the Liberals are ahead in Sydney (the largest population centre) but if they get wiped out in those surrounding towns I can see the Conservatives winning here.
I'm not sure who Archie MacKinnon hurts more. They would probably be protest voters who were not going to vote Liberal anyway so he probably hurts the Conservatives the most. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets about 10% of the vote.
|This is shaping up to be an odd election. It appears that if the Conservatives win any seats in Nova Scotia, it might be one or both of the Cape Breton ridings, and NOT Central Nova or Cumberland-Colchester. As it is right now, Conservative support is dropping in Atlantic Canada as we move towards election day.|
|The Liberal candidate here posted some ? stuff to social media yrs. ago. That hurts his cause. If this was a riding that had Conservative leanings it'd hurt him. Still this riding stayed Liberal through Harper. In 2019 with Scheer as CPC leader the Liberals hold on here.|
|Weve seen this happen many times where a candidate has found themselves in trouble over past social media posts. The liberal candidate for this riding Jamie Battiste had a bad habit of posting odd things to twitter long before he decided to run for public office and now theyve came back to haunt him. Typically a candidate would be dropped and replaced with a new candidate but since were past the deadline to file nominations the liberals cannot replace him. If they dropped him the riding would likely become a conservative/ndp race , with him still in the race its more unpredictable. But certaintly going to be much closer than 2015 . the conservatives also have a high profile former NS pc mla running for them here , Eddie Orrell had been a provincial mla for this area .|
|Still early, but I think the Conservatives may pull off an upset here. The Liberals have held this riding in 11 of the last 12 elections. I think the Liberal Party is taking it for granted. I know Mark Eyking won with 74% of the vote in 2015 but he is not running again. Not to mention the recent revelations about the Liberal candidate are not helping the cause for keeping the seat. Cecil Clarke almost took the seat in 2011. I think much of the soft Liberal support will go elsewhere, the independents may take some and the rest to the NDP. Those undecided voters will go to the Conservatives. As of today, CBC had this listed as a battleground riding. Scheer spent some time in the riding over the summer. The Conservative candidate is a well known and, for the most part, well liked provincial politician. I predict he wins with approximately 40% of the vote.|
|Cec Clarke's close challenge in 2011 demonstrates how the federal Cons *could* be viable here...if Justin's facing an Iggy-scaled (or 1997-Chretien-scaled, even if that was vs the NDP) humiliation. Which doesn't look to be in the cards; but, kudos to CPC, anyway, to be at least *investing* in the two Cape Breton seats.|
|Yes, this one will go Liberal. Compared to Cape Breton-Canso, the LPC have a strong candidate here, and Eddie Orrell is popular, but not enough to beat them. CB-Canso is potentially a much different story. |
BTW the NDP seems to have zero interest in either Cape Breton riding. I knew both candidates in 2015, and the total lack of support or interest by the national office is obvious. This one will be worse, I think.
|For people wondering why Eddie Orrell and Alfie MacLeod are giving up their provincial seats to run in two very safe Liberal Cape Breton ridings, here is why I think they are doing it. |
Firstly, both Liberal incumbents are not running. The Conservatives wouldn't have a chance if they were. They see it as an opening that doesn't present itself often.
Secondly, the provincial Liberals did very poorly here because the health care system in Cape Breton is in a crisis. It was a winning message for them in the provincial election and they probably believe it is a possible winning message in the Federal election If they hammer away at this local issue they are hoping it may allow them to squeak through.
I live in this riding and people are very angry at the state of the health care system here. The ER in the Glace Bay hospital is rarely open which is flooding the Sydney hospital. Also, there is a doctor shortage here with no signs of it getting better. They are hoping that people are going to take it out on the federal Liberals out of frustration and anger.
Also, even though the Federal Conservatives are for more right wing than the Provincial PCs some people might not make that distinction because they are both well known from their time with the provincial PC party so they might vote for them personally instead of for the party they represent. I'm not saying it's likely to happen but this is probably why they think they have a chance.
|With Mark Eyking's retirement, this riding's become more competitive than before. I expect the Liberals to drop 20 points from their 2015 showing, I expect the Tories to pick up 60% of the dropped votes and the Greens the rest. That would make it Liberal 53%, CPC 22%, NDP 13%, Green 10%. More competitive, yet still a Liberal landslide.|
|What is Eddie Orrell doing? If anything, I would expect a defeated provincial Liberal like David Wilton to run here, not an incumbent PC MLA. Even if he wins the CPC nomination as is likely, there are at present no signs of anything other than a Liberal win here. The Liberals have always done well in Cape Breton - the last time they went another way was in 1997, and the incumbent Liberals may have angered some people, but they haven't angered Nova Scotians like in 1997. On top of that, the two Cape Breton seats were seats where the Liberals won a majority of electors - an impressive feat. Whilst I doubt the next Liberal MP will have anything going for them like Mark Eyking or Rodger Cuzner, they should win.|
|What is Eddie Orrell doing? If anything, I would expect a defeated provincial Liberal like David Wilton to run here, not an incumbent PC MLA. Even if he wins the CPC nomination as is likely, there are at present no signs of anything other than a Liberal win here. The Liberals have always done well in Cape Breton - the last time they went another way was in 1997, and the incumbent Liberals may have angered some people, but they haven't angered Nova Scotians like in 1997. On top of that, the two Cape Breton seats were seats where the Liberals won a majority of electors - an impressive feat. Whilst I doubt the next Liberal MP will have anything going for them like Mark Eyking or Rodger Cuzner, (other than Jamie Battiste who would be a star candidate) they should win anyway.|
|I wonder if I will ever again see a non-Liberal MP from Cape Breton in my lifetime (I'm in my 30s). There were the fluky NDP wins in 1997 due to backlash over Chretien/Martin's EI changes, but aside from that it's been perma-Liberal usually by gargatuan margins since forever. Even Mulroney only scored 1/4 in Cape Breton (winning one of the two seats in 1984 and neither in 1988). As mentioned below, by rights this region should be fertile ground for both the NDP and Tories but the stubborn Liberal vote is far too entrenched for either party to exert much effort.|
|If Sydney-Victoria was almost anywhere else in Canada, it would be a Conservative-NDP battleground being highly industrialized and working class. However, Nova Scotia is not like most provinces - populism does not fly at all. Yes, the Nova Scotia PC's did well here in 2017, but they tend to be very much Red Tories, unlike in most other provinces - hence it's not a good indicator.|
The 60 point margin is virtually impossible to overcome. Sure it was close in 2015, but that was during a Liberal meltdown and there is no indication that Scheer is making any inroads in Nova Scotia. Mark Eyking may not be back, but the color of the seat will remain red. The real election will be in the LPC nomination meeting...
|Safe Liberal. It will be interesting to see who their candidate is here, indeed, the nomination race is the real contest.|
||COAST TO COAST TO COAST|
|This was the Liberals 5th best seat nationwide in 2015. Definitely a Liberal hold.|
|Mark Eyking maybe retiring and this area may have gone solidly PC provincially, but federally this is a very safe Liberal riding and the fact they couldn't win this even in the best of conditions in 2011, suggests Liberals should hold this.|