Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek


Prediction Changed
2017-12-10 21:13:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

CHENOWETH, LINDA

DEROO, ALLAN

GREWAL, AKASH

MILLER, PAUL

MONROY, LUCINA

MUNROE, BRIAN

STEBBING, JENNIFER


Incumbent(s):
    Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
   Paul Miller

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):107786


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

11741 29.86%
7122 18.11%
18037 45.87%
1550 3.94%
OTHERS 869 2.21%
Total Transposed 39318

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

11741
7122
18037
1550
Others869
Total Transposed39318


Federal Election Result (2015):

Bob Bratina
1962239.00%
Wayne Marston **
1646532.70%
Diane Bubanko
1271525.30%
Erin Davis
13052.60%
Bob Mann
1700.30%
Wendell Fields
550.10%


 

16/04/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
I'll allow for the upset potential; after all, the Hamilton East part *has* been pared back a touch, and Miller already fell (or, some might say, 'normalized') in share last time. (And of course, we've already seen a federal upset--and hey, Bratina may be a 'flake', but he's still a former mayor with the cachet that implies.) But face it: we're talking about within the ONDP leader's orbit here; and because said leader ain't Kathleen Wynne, it's a little redundant to protest-vote against her...
12/04/2018 manny
64.228.242.213
Human rights complaints filed against two Hamilton NDP politicians
Human rights complaints filed against two Hamilton NDP politicians
Two office staffers with Mountain MPP Monique Taylor and one with east Hamilton-Stoney Creek MPP Paul Miller have alleged workplace bullying and discrimination
12/04/2018
192.171.48.70
This riding will be barely won by the NDP...and Miller is dealing with issues at QP....could even go under the blue Wave ....not a lock IMHO
19/03/2018 jeff316
69.165.157.213
Could the NDP go down to one Hamilton seat come June? Probably, no. Possible, yes. The question is, who would be left standing?
Miller might have just enough of the angryman persona to hang on but then again a classy-but-stiff Eisenberg-esque PC candidate could present enough of a contrasting image to garner more emotionally-balanced voters and let Doug Ford appeal to the cranks.
I mean, this riding elected Bob Bratina (a flake if there ever was one) of all people. So who knows.
NDP ends up with G
08/01/2018 MF
69.159.31.101
Most of this riding *is* in Stoney Creek, so obviously the NDP doesn't have a problem there. Paul Miller should have no problem being re-elected.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Normally not a safe NDP riding, but the Liberals have really tanked in the heavy manufacturing areas so despite winning federally here, don't see them winning provincially. The Hamilton portion will go heavily NDP while Stoney Creek being more suburban could go either Liberal or PC but neither will win it by enough to offset their weakness in the old city of Hamilton portions.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
The NDP won by 17 points last time around. Would require a major NDP collapse and Liberal gains to become a competitive riding.



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