Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2017

Stoke-on-Trent Central


Prediction Changed
2017-04-27 21:08:23
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Andras, Peter

Colclough, Adam

Fielding, Barbara

Harold, Mick

Jellyman, Daniel

Snell, Gareth

Incumbent:
Gareth Snell

2016 EU Referendum (Remain vs. Leave)
35.15 % vs. 64.85 % (Est.)

2015 Election Result
Hunt, Tristram*
1222039.3%
Harold, Mick
704122.7%
Ascough, Liam
700822.6%
Breeze, Mark
21206.8%
Ali, Zulfiqar
12964.2%
Zablocki, Jan
11233.6%
Majid, Ali
244 .8%
Toussaint, Paul
32 .1%
2010 Election Result (2010 Prediction)
Hunt, T.J.W.
1260538.8%
Redfern, J.P.
703921.7%
Bhatti, N. Ms.
683321.0%
Darby, S.
25027.7%
Lovatt, C. Ms.
14024.3%
Breeze, P.D.
9593.0%
Elsby, G.
3991.2%
Ward, B.
303 .9%
Walker, N.A.
295 .9%
Wright, M.S.
133 .4%
2005 Election Result (transposed)
15098
4957
5351
Minor Parties84
Other3372


 

27/05/2017 V.F.
104.16.121.223
With Labour closing the gap in national polls, a seat like this should remain in the fold. The byelection demonstrated Labour's residual strength.
05/05/2017 JC
162.23.111.62
In the Staffordshire local elections, the Tories won up 51 seats (a gain of 17!) while labour only retained 10 (lost 14 seats). The collapse of the UKIP votes has undoubtedly helped the Tories. This massive swing, along with the high leave vote, bold very well for the Conservative. May not be enough to win this given the recent byelection result, but this may very well be the only Labour seat remaining.
27/04/2017 Jack Cox
24.212.227.58
Labour managed to hold this by 12% during the by-election there was also a major storm on polling day. I think it depends on how much UKIP vote the Tories win here but I don't think Labour will lsoe this seat.



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United Kingdom General Election - 2017
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