Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek


Prediction Changed
2015-03-17 23:43:47
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Block, Kelly

Oliphant, Lynn Wesley

Slusar, Alexander

Wright, Glenn


Population/populations
(2011 census)

72607


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2231068.35%
796224.39%
12783.92%
8542.62%
Other 2360.72%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
   (85/181 polls, 52.30% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Maurice Vellacott
11088
3404
683
536


   Saskatoon-Humboldt
   (50/181 polls, 22.88% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Brad Trost
5334
1932
430
172
Other236


   Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
   (41/181 polls, 22.59% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Kelly Block
5331
2458
134
133


   Cypress Hills-Grasslands
   (5/181 polls, 2.24%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
David Anderson
557
168
31
13



 


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15 09 23 R.O.
24.146.23.226
Current mp Kelly Block should be able to hold onto this riding , if she had to run in old Saskatoon rosetown biggar riding that might have been more of a challenge but this riding is more rural and would of easily went conservative in 2011.
15 09 05 Teddy Boragina
69.165.135.72
CTEC NDP is right. It's not proper to just take transposed results and treat them like gospel. This is especially true in ridings that have no more than 1/3rd of their voters come from any one predecessor riding.
However, for that reason (and more) that does not apply to this riding. Check Vancouver Grenville out if you want to see that in action.
15 07 25 A.S.
99.233.125.239
It's possible that the NDP can be brought back to 80s/90s 'competative' levels here--but any seat which contains the heart of Vellacottopia (i.e. the evangelical archipelago around Martensville) must be deemed out of victory's reach. That is, Kelly Block may be the incumbent running here, but she's really running on behalf of a retired neighbour--and with no more orangey Saskatoon to dilute things.
15 07 21 CTEC NDP
160.84.253.235
To merely superimpose data from the 2011 election onto the new electoral boundaries does not constitute a meaningful prediction. Having been on doorsteps and canvassing residents,even this 'safe' seat for the CPC is in play. The NDP have a strong candidate and this seat will be challenged.
15 03 16 JW
99.232.118.35
While redistribution makes Regina and Saskatoon ridings very competitive between the Conservatives and the NDP, it also made all (but one) ridings outside the two cities overwhelmingly Conservative. Barring a major Conservative meltdown, this will safely remain Conservative.



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