Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Battlefords-Lloydminster


Prediction Changed
2015-03-17 23:43:38
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Anguish, Doug

Ingram, Larry

Ritz, Gerry

Tait, Glenn

Tenkink, Mikaela


Population/populations
(2011 census)

70034


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

1716665.94%
730428.06%
8803.38%
6792.61%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Battlefords-Lloydminster
   (157/159 polls, 99.95% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Gerry Ritz
17151
7297
880
679


   Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
   (2/159 polls, 0.05% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Kelly Block
15
7



 


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15 10 05 Teddy Boragina
184.175.16.230
There is an Independent running in this riding who is a former MP. He won't win, but he will likely be one of the few Independents who take over 1% of the vote in their riding.
15 09 27 R.O.
24.146.23.226
The ndp candidate has quit in this riding due to financial difficulties from the long campaign. I'm not sure if ndp has enough time to find a new candidate or not. Gerry Ritz has held this riding for a number of years and won by large margins so its likely to stay conservative .
15 09 28 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Making things that much easier for Gerry Ritz: NDP nominee Sandra Arias (the presumptive primary opposition) withdrew from the race on 'financial strain' grounds. Even if there's a last-minute replacement, the message is clear. (Though it's worth noting that Ritz actually first defeated an NDP incumbent in 1997; how far they've fallen in rural Sask)
15 03 16 JW
99.232.118.35
While redistribution makes Regina and Saskatoon ridings very competitive between the Conservatives and the NDP, it also made all (but one) ridings outside the two cities overwhelmingly Conservative. Barring a major Conservative meltdown, this will safely remain Conservative.



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