Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Mississauga-Lakeshore


Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:31:46
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Ambler, Stella

Burgener, Ariana

Guerbilsky, Eric

Spengemann, Sven

Sullivan, Dagmar

Woodworth, Paul


Population/populations
(2011 census)

118893


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2427146.91%
661712.79%
1906936.85%
15933.08%
Other 1960.38%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Mississauga South
   (218/231 polls, 94.69% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Stella Ambler
22924
6300
18334
1527
Other192


   Mississauga-Erindale
   (13/231 polls, 5.31% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Bob Dechert
1347
317
735
66
Other4



 


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15 10 15 William Bishop
198.96.178.33
You can't be calling ridings like Oakville and Peterborough as going Liberal and think that this riding is still in contention.
Liberal rise will float all Mississauga boats.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
86.21.157.198
While I have been very certain of Liberal wins throughout Mississauga, especially with Hurricane Hazel's endorsement of Trudeau, this is one could be close. Never the less, I am still predicting a Liberal win on the Lakeshore.
15 10 12 Monkey Cheese
99.242.194.247
The Forum poll and Hazel MaCallion's endorsement of Justin Trudeau is enough for me to call this one for the Liberals. I agree with Jeff that the Liberals are likely to sweep all of the Mississauga ridings.
15 10 10 Jeff S
24.186.30.74
Liberals' rising fortunes in the province could lead them to sweep all the Mississauga ridings.
15 10 06 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
This riding is TCTC.
Stella Ambler in trouble in Mississauga-Lakeshore
Forum Poll - October 5th
Sven Spengemann (44%) Liberal
Stella Ambler (41%) Conservative
Eric Guerbilsky (12%) NDP
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2404/sven-spengemann-with-the-edge/
15 09 21 GSG
207.219.44.1
As the Liberals continue to move left, the less likely this riding goes back to the Liberals. Justin Trudeau's Liberal policies are not the same policies of the party that won this riding for 18 year. Taxing the rich doesn't not play well here. Stella Ambler will win this riding.
15 09 14 ML
69.77.168.131
I take the GO Train occasionally between Union and Hamilton and I've been surprised by the number of NDP signs I've seen in and around Port Credit. I am in no way suggesting the NDP has a shot at this riding - Mississauga has always been a dead zone for the Dippers - but I wonder if they could steal some Liberal votes.
15 09 10 Brian L
174.93.33.91
I liked DrBear's analysis of the latest Conservative ad where a 'voter' says that Harper is not perfect. Perhaps it would have a little more heft if Harper said it himself. However, going for humility in a party that has had none for the past four years seems to be one of desperation.
Mississauga Lakeshore should be in the 'Too Close' column as well. All of the predictive analysis is showing, and has shown for some time now, that all of the Mississauga ridings will turn to the Liberals on October 19. Some are closer than others, with Mississauga-Lakeshore being one of the closer ones.
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
204.187.16.156
While I agree that this is the most likely Mississauga riding to stay Conservative, I can not get behind the CPC call. Support for the Liberals have strengthened in Ontario and the CPC is currently polling third. Their latest's polling tactic is a Harper's-not-perfect-but-he-ain't-that-bad campaign. Sounds kinda desperate. That said, this riding should be TCTC.
15 09 08 robin curtis
178.203.91.151
The signs out so far are not much of an indication of support. The Liberals have not yet come door to door in our neighbourhood, while the Conservatives have. There are surprisingly few Conservative signs out too and our neighbourhood is quite well off. Any NDP or Liberal signs are a result of people having sought out the campaign offices themselves.
The Liberal candidate can only profit, moreover, from the news in the last few days about the plight of refugees (and the Conservatives on the whole suffer): his specific biography (both through his UN experience - and I might add his volunteer work in his own riding) places him really well in this fashion.
15 09 03 CGD
174.116.160.134
This was a surprisingly early call for the Tories. Projections in this riding based on polls have it at a 10-15% edge for the Liberals. Hard to see a Tory victory in any of the Mississauga seats unless they get a big upswing in Ontario overall.
15 08 24 M.L.
207.219.44.1
If signs and the number of canvassers out are any indication, then this looks like one of the few holds in the Mississauga ridings for the Conservatives. The sharp left turn of the Liberal platform has turned voters off. The Liberal party of Chretien-Martin is not the same party campaigning here.
15 08 14 G. Smith
207.219.44.1
Too close to call. But a key seat for the Conservatives. As far as Stella Ambler being an invisible backbencher, I wonder if the person who posted that lives in the riding. I saw more of Stella and more material from her in 4 years than from Szabo in his 18 years combined.
15 08 13 Monkey Cheese
99.242.205.221
From what I've gathered from 'Follow The Numbers', is that this poster typically bases his predictions on regional and riding polls, which are currently suggesting a Liberal sweep of Mississauga. FYI, I'd hardly call sending out taxpayer funded government mailings that pat themselves on the back as being active in the riding. The Liberals have a strong candidate and it's hard for me to imagine a weak MP like Ambler holding on when Conservative support has dropped since the last election.
15 08 10 FOLLOWING THE NUMBERS
65.93.93.114
A hold for the Conservatives. How can an affluent riding support the 'tax the rich' class warfare proposed by Justin Trudeau. Yes, the Liberals may have a credible candidate, but I don't think Stella is invisible. I have lived in this riding for 25 years and he material and updates I received from her was a lot more informative and more frequent than the previous MP (Paul Szabo) who was also a backbencher. So not quite sure what the previous post said
15 08 10 FOLLOWING THE NUMBERS
65.93.93.114
A hold for the Conservatives. How can an affluent riding support the 'tax the rich' class warfare proposed by Justin Trudeau. Yes, the Liberals may have a credible candidate, but I don't think Stella is invisible. I have lived in this riding for 25 years and he material and updates I received from her was a lot more informative and more frequent than the previous MP (Paul Szabo) who was also a backbencher. So not quite sure what the previous post said
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
24.139.3.217
The Conservative MP is a relative unknown backbencher. The Liberals have a strong candidate in Sven Spengemann. If Ambler had been more visible perhaps she could have held on, but stronger Liberal polling numbers should help take down an invisible backbencher.
15 08 07 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This is provincial finance minister Charles Sousa's riding however at federal level it voted conservative in 2011 and Stella Ambler is a younger maybe up and coming mp . the liberal mp she beat and long time mp for this area Paul Szabo is not running again . new liberal doesn't seem that high profile . being Mississauga riding it will remain competitive this election but don't see it flipping parties.
15 08 03 Docere
69.156.79.184
The comment from A.S. about this being 'Tory because most affluent in Mississauga' is a good one. If we're seeing a UK-style polarization in Canadian politics, this would be a leafy, suburban Tory vs. Lib Dem type seat. For some reason - maybe because it didn't go Tory when neighboring Oakville and even Mississauga-Erindale did in 2008 - I get the feeling that the Liberals may end up prevailing here. Marking it TCTC for now.
15 07 21 A.S.
99.233.100.50
Used to be the safest-because-most-affluent Tory riding in Mississauga; but nowadays, that doesn't make it the one most out of reach for the Liberals so much as the one most out of reach for a hypothetical Mississauga-breakthrough-seeking NDP. In the provincial Charles Sousa era, the Grits will *never* roll over and play dead here.
15 03 31 GSG
207.219.44.1
Will be a close result again, but re-distrubtion and incumbency will help Stella Ambler. The Liberals have a strong candidate, but this will come down to whom you would like as PM. Harper or Trudeau. Harper wins in this riding.
15 03 29 monkey
174.114.31.13
Certainly the riding looks ripe for picking up by the Liberals, but it also is a very affluent riding too so depending on what type of platform the Liberals run on it could go either way. If they run on a fairly centrist one without tax increases for the wealthy, I think their chances are good, but if they promise to increase taxes for the rich, they will likely help them elsewhere but hurt their chances in this riding.
15 03 28 Jack Cox
24.226.65.140
Stella Ambler is not really an impressive MP, the Liberal Candidate Spengemann worked in the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, it's very hard for me to see someone like Ambler holding on in this riding when you have a candidate like Spengemann who's really something special.



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