Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin


Prediction Changed
2015-09-22 09:43:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Jasmin-Tremblay, Patrice

Lemieux, Marie-Josée

Makridis, Nicolas

Mungur, Lorna

Robillard, Yves


Population/populations
(2011 census)

96082


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

490410.37%
2315648.98%
654513.85%
1147124.27%
11062.34%
Other 900.19%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
   (92/177 polls, 58.28% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Alain Giguère
2545
13841
3501
7155
484


   Laval
   (59/177 polls, 30.43% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
José Nunez-Melo
1816
6536
2240
3256
521
Other60


   Laval-Les Îles
   (19/177 polls, 8.94% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
François Pilon
423
2214
587
753
88
Other24


   Alfred-Pellan
   (7/177 polls, 2.35%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Rosane Doré Lefebvre
120
565
217
307
13
Other6



 


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15 09 20 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Now a completely Laval-bound seat rather than the RdMI-straddler of old--but the pull t/w Laurentides/Lanaudiere rather than Montreal still shows: less than 15% for the Libs in 2011, et al. Even so, there's also enough Laval 'moderation' so that it's not likely to be any critical cornerstone to the Bloc recovering official party status, either. So, in the end, just another average Orange Crush II building block in the making.
15 08 05 PHYSASTR Master
206.87.117.126
With a 4:1 margin for the NDP over the Liberals last election and a downward trending BQ (the Duceppe influx seems to be wearing off), it's hard to see this going anything but NDP. 308 has this at 82% certainty. I'd say this is a safe NDP call.
15 07 12 #ABC51 Name
192.0.136.194
Laval est une région qui est assez fédéraliste. C'est difficile à imaginer que le NPD perderait avec la popularité de Mulcaire.
Laval is pretty federalist. It's hard to see the NDP losing a riding like this when Mulcair is so popular.
15 06 09 Observer
24.156.205.18
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 31 JC
69.165.234.184
This is a Liberal-NDP race, the Liberals don't have a candidate yet and are the only people without one but there are two running for the nomination. Alain Giguere the incumbent NDP MP left this riding to run in Therese de Blainville, he must have seen some polling that suggested he couldn't win here or it would be a tough time.
15 03 30 2015
142.166.223.138
Avec le Bloc pres de 20% dans les sondages et l'histoire terrible du PLC dans cette circonscription (plus que 20% derrière le gagnant chaque fois), c'est un victorie NPD à l'election prochaine.
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
A fairly nationalist riding so should probably go NDP, but I am holding off calling as Quebecers are known for switching on a moment's notice.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
174.89.199.19
This part of Laval is probably the most nationalist, which, under the new normal, makes it an NDP favorite. However current polls show that Laval is souring towards the NDP somewhat and softening towards the Liberals. I say it's TCTC.
15 03 19 Mr. Montreal
184.161.92.32
La tendance démographique à Laval est très hostile pour les nationalistes et les indépendantistes. D'ailleurs, aux élections provinciales, le PLQ a souvent bénéficié de la division du vote des partis davantages nationalistes pour conserver le nord de Laval. Une bonne partie de francophones qui voteraient pour le PLC (sans que ce soit la pluralité d'entre eux), le comté basculerait vers le camp libéral pour le moment, mais de très peu.



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