Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Vaughan


Prediction Changed
2013-03-11 22:13:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Coletta, Marco

Del Duca, Steven

Fabrizio, Paolo

Meffe, Peter

Pankhurst, Matthew

Incumbent:
Steven Del Duca

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Vaughan)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * GREG SORBARA
    2617453.02%
    TONY GENCO
    1542031.24%
    PAUL DONOFRIO
    559411.33%
    PAOLO FABRIZIO
    9291.88%
    BRENDAN FRYE
    6941.41%
    DAVID NATALE
    2180.44%
    SAVINO QUATELA
    1690.34%
    TERRY MARINO
    1690.34%
    2007 Result:
    * GREG SORBARA
    28,96461.90%
    GAYANI WEERASINGHE
    8,75918.72%
    RICK MORELLI
    5,47011.69%
    RUSSELL KORUS
    2,9756.36%
    SAVINO QUATELA
    6231.33%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2558760.46%
    1218028.78%
    283106.68%


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    14 05 27 Marco Ricci
    99.241.63.7
    Likely to remain a Liberal stronghold provincially for now. Sorbara beat Genco in 2011 by 20+ points, and even after Sorbara retired, Del Duca was able to beat Genco by nearly 20 points in the by-election. Genco seems to have realized that he is not going to get elected here since he is not running again. What's interesting of course is that before Genco became a Conservative, he nearly beat Fantino federally in the 2010 by-election. Fantino won by a large margin during the 2011 federal election when Ignatieff collapsed, but Fantino has been hit by a number of controversies lately and is rumoured to be considering retirement in 2015. Anyway, for now this riding will stay Liberal provincially, so the only question will be whether Meffe can do better than Genco. Its federal future is unknown, particularly with re-distribution.
    14 05 26 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    Casualties of the 2010 Vaughan council purge don't make for prepossessing PC challengers--just sayin'. Del Duca proved his mettle in the byelection, and the token Orthodox Jewish fringe in the far NE is hardly enough to sway things Toryward--however satisfied (or are they?) constituents are w/Julian Fantino's federal representation.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    This riding is never close and either goes heavily conservative like it did in 1999 provincially and 2011 federally or heavily Liberal like it did provincially in 2003, 2007, and 2011 and federally in 2004, 2006, and 2008. It has a large Italian community who are normally Liberal but would go PC before NDP thus if the NDP pulls into second like they did federally things could change or if the PCs get around the mid 40s province wide, this will then swing heavily behind them whereby they will likely get over 50%, but since no poll since 2011 has put the PCs over 40% for now it looks like the Liberals are fairly safe.
    13 03 01 KS
    70.26.156.57
    Vaughan is a stronghold of the Ontario Liberal Party and it would remain that way, even if the Liberals get decimated to third place.
    Incumbent MPP Steven Del Duca is popular in this riding. The PC candidate Peter Meffe was a former councillor who lost the 2010 municipal election.
    13 02 15 LFC Ottawa
    70.30.21.69
    The Liberals won this by-election easily, expect them to hold it in a general.
    13 02 10 KS
    70.26.158.177
    Vaughan is a stronghold of the Ontario Liberal Party and it will remain that way for now. The Liberals won this riding by large margins in the last three general elections and two by-elections from 2001 to 2012. Even if the Liberals lose the election, they will likely hold on to this seat.
    The Liberal candidate is incumbent MPP Steven Del Duca. He is a new MPP, but is popular in the community.
    The PC candidate is Peter Meffe, a councillor that was defeated in the 2010 municipal election, which knocked out most incumbent councillors in Vaughan. He has the potential to do better than the unpopular Tony Genco, but I cannot see this riding turning blue. The NDP is not a factor in Vaughan, and this would be one of their weakest seats in the province.



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