Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Oak Ridges-Markham


Prediction Changed
2014-06-07 22:55:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Boelling, Karl

Jaczek, Helena

Krauter, Miles

Melara, Emilia

Vilensky, Gennady

Wassef, Farid

Incumbent:
Helena Jaczek

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Oak Ridges-Markham)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * HELENA JACZEK
    2887844.78%
    FARID WASSEF
    2395037.14%
    JOE WHITFELD
    854813.26%
    TRIFON HAITAS
    15692.43%
    KARL BOELLING
    10571.64%
    RUIDA LU
    4840.75%
    2007 Result:
    HELENA JACZEK
    28,56448.22%
    PHIL BANNON
    21,36736.07%
    JANICE HAGAN
    4,6987.93%
    ATTILA NAGY
    3,8156.44%
    PATRICK REDMOND
    4550.77%
    DOUG RANSOM
    3420.58%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1871640.79%
    2257849.21%
    276506.02%


  •  


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    14 06 05 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This is a riding that really should have had some potential for the pc's and maybe still does depending on what happens in final week of campaign . it has some more rural and conservative friendly areas when compared to other gta ridings but also has some more urban polls as well in Markham . but its likely to be closer than last time if province wide polls continue to show a close race .
    14 05 30 Puerto Escondidan
    70.49.192.86
    If the electoral redistribution of York Region had been effective for the current provincial election, the PC's would have won all the York Region seats with the votes they got in 2011. Given that we're still working with the old electoral districts, Markham Unionville and Oak Ridges Markham will be a little more difficult for the PCs to obtain but the latter one is certainly possible. Stouffville and the north-west of the riding are solid PC territory, and going by the lawn signs starting to appear in Markham, there appears to be a shift going on toward Farid Wassef in this part. I'd put my money on Farid by a small margin
    14 05 30 Puerto Escondidan
    70.49.192.86
    If the electoral redistribution of York Region had been effective for the current provincial election, the PC's would have won all the York Region seats with the votes they got in 2011. Given that we're still working with the old electoral districts, Markham Unionville and Oak Ridges Markham will be a little more difficult for the PCs to obtain but the latter one is certainly possible. Stouffville and the north-west of the riding are solid PC territory, and going by the lawn signs starting to appear in Markham, there appears to be a shift going on toward Farid Wassef in this part. I'd put my money on Farid by a small margin
    14 05 26 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    A vast topographical contour-map divider btw/inner 905 Liberal ethnoburbia and outer 905 PC exurbia--and megagrowth patterns favour the Grits; even the currently-exploding parts of Tory Stouffville are (however mildly) inflecting Markhamward, electorally speaking. Will it still work for Helena J? Whatever the case, it'll be a farewell gesture for a one-redistribution-wonder of a seat whose ungainly spread was always predestined for ultimate breakup, anyway...
    14 05 25 Rob
    184.146.112.129
    Liberal signs were first off the mark, and only ones I've seen within neighbourhoods (even if most are being recycled from the 2011 campaign). PC signs are only on the main streets. No door-to-door activity being observed.
    Absolutely no conversation about the campaign going on. Gut feeling says the Grits will get in, even if their support just slips. Tories need a 3.9% swing in order to win - that on top of the 2.1% swing they achieved the last time around. Might be tough to achieve.
    14 05 25 Arden
    24.212.218.226
    Not much to go on here, but I think Jaczek can eke out a win here. Poll data and incumbency advantage inform this opinion, but it looks like LPO/PC voting habits in the 905 area are mostly stable. Jaczek will probably lose some ground to the PCs here, but not enough to lose the seat.
    13 04 10
    70.30.132.201
    Helena Jaczek is a great MPP - tireless both at Queen's Park and in the riding - and she certainly has the advantage here. With the last election being relatively close in this riding, she's going to be in the fight of her life this time out...but against the same opponent she beat last time, she should be able to hold on barring a major province-wide shift to the Conservatives. TCTC, leaning Liberal.
    13 04 08 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    A typical bell weather type GTA riding.



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