Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale


Prediction Changed
2014-06-07 22:55:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Dartsch, Raymond

Johnstone, Alex

Langton, Glenn

McMeekin, Ted

Skelly, Donna

Spruce, Barry

Incumbent:
Ted McMeekin

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * TED MCMEEKIN
    2164843.7%
    DONNA SKELLY
    1713234.58%
    TREVOR WESTERHOFF
    852117.2%
    ERIK COVERDALE
    14772.98%
    BOB MATON
    3210.65%
    GLENN LANGTON
    2580.52%
    PETER MELANSON
    990.2%
    RICK GUNDERMAN SMITH
    870.18%
    2007 Result:
    * TED MCMEEKIN
    20,44541.16%
    CHRIS CORRIGAN
    17,09234.41%
    JUANITA MALDONADO
    6,81413.72%
    DAVID JANUCZKOWSKI
    4,1128.28%
    JIM ENOS
    5481.10%
    EILEEN BUTSON
    3700.74%
    MARTIN SAMUEL ZULINIAK
    2220.45%
    SAM ZASLAVSKY
    670.13%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2057145.53%
    1518233.60%
    756216.73%


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    14 06 09 NJam101
    63.135.17.148
    I don't live here but is it fair to say that even just a small shift of NDP voters voting Liberal it will ensure McMeekin wins again?
    I remember this being the first 905 riding to go Liberal (through a by-election I think) during the Harris years.
    Oh, and it just hit me that McMeekin is a cabinet minister. Minister of Community and Social Services. That certainly helps.
    14 06 09 A.S.
    99.231.139.81
    Overall Grit attrition has rendered ADFW an odd seat indeed--besides McMeekin (whose home base is in the farthest reaches of Flamborough) and Grant Crack, are there any other true 'rural/small-town' Liberal MPPs remaining? As it now stands, endurance--plus the weird conglomerate nature of the seat--is McMeekin's friend; it almost doesn't matter anymore that he's still plainly within PC crosshairs. (Or, ideally, NDP crosshairs as well--though simply by enduring as an incumbent, McMeekin's likelier to neutralize the orange presence. But, being next door to Andrea herself, ADFW *would* be a perfect K-W style byelection pickup. Just saying.)
    14 06 06 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This is a tough riding to predict , it really should already be a pc riding . I'm sure Ted Mcmeekin is the only reason its still liberal . that being said he is still on the ballot this year but Donna Skelly is also back for another run and she is a good candidate for the pc's . this riding has a lot of potential for the pc's and one that will at some point elect a conservative member to the legislature but if that happens this year is tough to say yet .
    14 05 25 jeff316
    69.196.138.207
    Another match up between steeltown and smalltown liberalism versus suburban and semi-rural soccer-mom conservativism will make for an interesting campaign. McMeekin is well-liked but has a lot to answer for as part of this government, Skelly is well-known but a little too angry for most people's liking. The NDP throws a wrench in this - they have pocked of support in the urban parts of the riding. They are running a better candidate in Alex Johnstone with a worse platform for a riding like this. They may make or break this race for McMeekin.
    14 05 16 The Jackal
    50.100.40.135
    With SW Ontario becoming scorched earth for the Liberals I really can't see McMeekin retaining ths seat. Party resources will go to saving Jim Bradley in St.Catherines and Deb Matthews in LNC.
    14 05 05 Numbers Pundit
    209.239.28.137
    At the moment, the province-wide trend edges by a whisker in favour of Skelly in this 2011 rematch but cannot be considered by anyone as a foregone conclusion. Skelly's controversial ascendency as the PC candidate in lieu of 2007 standard-bearer Chris Corrigan was frought with problems not the least of which was division and infighting among local Tories. McMeekin's longtime local might in the Westdale, Flamborough, and rural areas of the former Wentworth region helped him sprint ahead marginally. McMeekin was given the extra injection due to a sizable number of provincial Tories who stayed home both for Hudak's blundering 2011 campaign and hostility toward Skelly's candidacy. Local observers should note whether Skelly participates in more all-candidates' and public events; her absence from them in 2011 per PC central campaign's edict for candidates to avoid them, led to her being excoriated in local media. ADFW has two unique influencing factors: both Andrea Horwath and Tim Hudak are local - their ridings of Hamilton Centre and Niagara-West Glanbrook respectively are too close to ignore. Horwath likely contributed to the NDP notching an additional 4% to their tally in a riding whose demographics do not ordinarily register on the NDP radar while Hudak's coat in 2011 was noticeably absent any tails. How McMeekin can protect his left/progressive flank and Skelly can neutralize any residual acrimony post-2011 will tell the tale. This is a riding to watch for where the western 905 region will head on 12 June.
    14 05 05 Numbers Pundit
    209.239.28.137
    At the moment, the province-wide trend edges by a whisker in favour of Skelly in this 2011 rematch but cannot be considered by anyone as a foregone conclusion. Skelly's controversial ascendency as the PC candidate in lieu of 2007 standard-bearer Chris Corrigan was frought with problems not the least of which was division and infighting among local Tories. McMeekin's longtime local might in the Westdale, Flamborough, and rural areas of the former Wentworth region helped him sprint ahead marginally. McMeekin was given the extra injection due to a sizable number of provincial Tories who stayed home both for Hudak's blundering 2011 campaign and hostility toward Skelly's candidacy. Local observers should note whether Skelly participates in more all-candidates' and public events; her absence from them in 2011 per PC central campaign's edict for candidates to avoid them, led to her being excoriated in local media. ADFW has two unique influencing factors: both Andrea Horwath and Tim Hudak are local - their ridings of Hamilton Centre and Niagara-West Glanbrook respectively are too close to ignore. Horwath likely contributed to the NDP notching an additional 4% to their tally in a riding whose demographics do not ordinarily register on the NDP radar while Hudak's coat in 2011 was noticeably absent any tails. How McMeekin can protect his left/progressive flank and Skelly can neutralize any residual acrimony post-2011 will tell the tale. This is a riding to watch for where the western 905 region will head on 12 June.
    13 08 15 GM
    207.164.152.162
    Persistent fractures in the conservative base in the riding bode well for the Liberals and Ted McMeekin. A Christian, blue Liberal appeals to the most disillusioned of typical PC voters, and he'll continue to draw support that David Sweet enjoys at the federal level. Additionally, the presence of 2 right-of-centre fringe parties will draw some votes from Donna as well (particularly if Jim Enos of Ancaster runs in his home riding this time).
    13 04 14 KS
    70.26.157.101
    The Liberals should be able to hold on to this riding if McMeekin runs again. In fact, this is one of the few ridings outside of Toronto where the Liberals actually increased their victory margin during the last election. McMeekin is a Wynne ally, so I am sure the Liberal campaign would put focus on retaining this riding.
    13 04 07 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    This is too early to call at this time. It is one of those bell weather ridings. The right time to call this would be less than a week before the vote.



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