Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Carleton-Mississippi Mills


Prediction Changed
2013-02-16 14:36:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Hansen, John

MacLaren, Jack

Stevens, Rosalyn

West, Andrew

Incumbent:
Jack MacLaren

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Carleton-Mississippi Mills)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    JACK MACLAREN
    2824650.29%
    MEGAN CORNELL
    1914434.08%
    LIAM DUFF
    637111.34%
    SCOTT SIMSER
    18573.31%
    CYNTHIA BREDFELDT
    5490.98%
    2007 Result:
    * NORM STERLING
    25,12647.83%
    MEGAN CORNELL
    16,77631.93%
    JOHN OGILVIE
    5,51710.50%
    MICHAEL HADSKIS
    4,0027.62%
    ROBERT ALEXANDER
    6931.32%
    REYNOLDS JAMES
    4190.80%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1459337.82%
    1980251.32%
    212405.50%


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    14 06 05 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Jack Maclaren ont pc mpp will continue to hold this riding , it had some potential for the liberals but is a fairly safe tory riding . does include some more urban polls in Kanata area of Ottawa but a lot of the riding is rural and small towns .
    14 05 11 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    As apparently safe as the seat is, I'm not altogether certain that *within present boundaries* it would have survived the '87 Grossman disaster--unless Mississippi Mills makes up for the loss of Osgoode/Rideau, of course; and even then, the parts that've subsequently been fastest growing are those that would have tilted Liberalward in 1987, i.e. there's 'more of that now'. But even so, such apparent 'Liberal-compatability' hasn't yet borne out as renewed electability--not even in 2011, despite the ousting of said 1987 survivor Norm Sterling on behalf of a Hillierite. And if it couldn't be done in 2011, it can't be done in 2014, all the more so with Grits no longer having an Ottawan leader...
    the fact that 2011 ousting of Norm Sterling on behalf of a Hillierite didn't change the outlook
    14 05 11
    99.241.218.99
    Although this seat is becoming less rural and more suburban, the PCs should hold on to it this time around, given that they're polling so well in Eastern Ontario. Nonetheless, if the demographics continue to change, I think there's a chance this seat could become more of a swing seat in future elections.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    One of the safest Conservative seats in the province. It survived the Larry Grossman disaster in 1987 and was even one of two that went for the Canadian Alliance in 2000. Unless the PCs were polling under 20% (which won't happen this time around) they are safe here.
    13 02 16 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    No contest here. This has been a Tory riding for the past 36 years. It'll stay in the blue column this time as well.



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