Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

York-Simcoe


Prediction Changed
2013-04-07 14:42:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bowman, Cheryl Laura

Carruthers, Loralea

Elgie, Peter

Munro, Julia

Wallace, Craig

Incumbent:
Julia Munro

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (York-Simcoe)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * JULIA MUNRO
    2042552.78%
    GLORIA RESZLER
    949624.54%
    MEGAN TAY
    660717.07%
    MEADE HELMAN
    14793.82%
    CRAIG HODGINS
    4891.26%
    MARK ADAM HARRISON
    2010.52%
    2007 Result:
    * JULIA MUNRO
    19,17346.23%
    JOHN GILBANK
    12,78530.83%
    JIM REEVES
    4,66411.25%
    NANCY MORRISON
    4,20510.14%
    CALEY MCKIBBIN
    3480.84%
    VICTOR CARVALHO
    2970.72%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1297233.24%
    2059252.77%
    361509.26%


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    14 06 07 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    No doubt about Julia Munro's safety (being 50%+ and over double the nearest competitor in 2011 proves it); but despite the fact that Munro projects genteel old-school PC moderation, Y-S actually *isn't* as defined by 'above average income' as it appears--much of Georgina & Innisfil can be better categorized as 'white trash exurbia' (i.e. of the sort that went NDP in 1990 and federally Reform/Alliance over the following decade). Which means, don't be surprised if the ONDP gets second-place bragging rights--but that'd be a *really* distant second; and it wouldn't matter given how Munro won all but a couple of polls in 2011. (Though it may be foreboding that those holdout polls were in Bradford's exploding suburban fringe. *Maybe*.)
    14 06 09 A.S.
    99.231.139.81
    While Julia Munro projects old-school PC genteel moderation, 'above average income' doesn't quite capture the gist of York-Simcoe--it's no Dufferin-Caledon, and in fact much of Georgina and Innisfil is defined by the sort of ex-cottage-resort white-trash exurbia that's more Reform/Alliance (or 1990 NDP) in mood. Which ultimately leads to the opposition forces cancelling each other out--Munro got over twice the vote of her Liberal competitor in 2011. Yeah, maybe the Grits can bank the faintest of pin-prick hope on 2011's only two non-PC polls being within Bradford's westward-advancing sprawlsville; though we'd be talking *really* distant future there, if anything.
    14 05 29 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Julia Munro has held this riding for a while , don't see that changing . it has grown a lot in some areas and not as rural is it used to be but still a riding Ont pc's are more likely to win .
    14 05 11 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    To frame York-Simcoe in Dufferin-Caledonesque terms of 'semi-rural, older and above average income' doesn't quite hit the mark; in fact, much of Keswick and Sutton and Innisfil has more of a longstanding 'white trash exurbia' fishing-hut-Ford-Nation feel (more Reform than PC--and, for that paradoxical matter, more historically amenable to the NDP than is normal for this neck of the woods). But Julia Munro definitely fits (and projects) the old-school-PC-gentility mode--as far as the white trash goes, it's currently well enough handled by Hudak/Hillier populism. (Though it *could* lead to the NDP leapfrogging over the Libs for 2nd.)
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    Despite its proximity to the GTA, this is largely still small town and countryside and generally with people who want to get away from the urban lifestyle so not surprisingly it votes quite differently than downtown Toronto despite having Go Train access. As such the PCs who are hated in downtown Toronto, but reasonably well liked in this semi-rural, older and above average income population.
    13 03 30 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    Julia Munroe's been an MPP since 1995; she's almost always won by comfortable margins, this time should be no exception.



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