Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

York Centre


Prediction Changed
2013-02-13 18:36:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Borenstein, Joshua

Fagan, John

Kwinter, Monte

Yufest, Avi

Incumbent:
Monte Kwinter

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (York Centre)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * MONTE KWINTER
    1469445.36%
    MICHAEL MOSTYN
    1150635.52%
    JOHN FAGAN
    457914.13%
    DAVID EPSTEIN
    8462.61%
    YURIY SHEVYRYOV
    5351.65%
    JEFF PANCER
    1270.39%
    RON TAL
    1080.33%
    2007 Result:
    * MONTE KWINTER
    16,64648.73%
    IGOR TOUTCHINSKI
    11,02832.28%
    CLAUDIA RODRIGUEZ
    3,71310.87%
    MARIJA MINIC
    2,2076.46%
    MARILYN CARVALHO
    5681.66%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1793757.12%
    837926.68%
    335210.67%


  •  


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    14 06 03 seasaw
    99.224.211.188
    Though, this may be a lot closer than it was the last time, I believe that the advantage's going to go to the Liberals. Monte's done a great job for the people of this riding, the only thing that may work against him is his age, he's in his 80's, and many people won't vote for him for that reason alone.
    14 05 22 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    There *has* to come a point when age is a liability for Monte The K, esp. now that Toryward Jewish trends (plus Monte's age, I suppose) turned this into the 416's only (bare) Lib-PC marginal in 2011. Though Tory hopes are dampered this season by Premier Wynne's inherent 416-appeal and a lesser standard bearer--and perhaps, 416 PC forces are presently too distracted by keeping their Etobicoke-Lakeshore septugenarian going to give the extra effort to knock off this octogenarian...
    14 05 30 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    Btw/Kwinter's looming 'age factor' and the overall Jewish Toryward trend (and a viable PC candidate in Mostyn), this promised to be the Grits' weakest 416 link relative to the Tories in '11...yet Monte pulled through with a healthy-enough 10-pt margin: the provincial Grits 'cracked the code'. And the fact of Premier Wynne plus a lesser PC standard-bearer than Mostyn continues to work on Kwinter's behalf; it still *ought to be* a borderline seat, but maybe the 416 Tories are now too preoccupied w/retaining their Etobicoke-Lakeshore septugenerian to defeat York Centre's octogenerian...
    14 05 28 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This is one of the few ridings in Toronto that should have some potential for the pc's however Wynne seems to be more popular in Toronto and that might keep some ridings liberal that could of otherwise went to other parties . it was very close by toronto standards the last couple elections and I was really surprised to see Monte Kwinter running again . Avi Yufest seems like an ok candidate for the pc's but maybe not as high profile as previous ones.
    14 05 25 Marco Ricci
    99.241.63.7
    This riding should possibly be considered as Too Close To Call. Polling analyst Eric Grenier has the PC's with about a 50/50 chance of winning here in the latest seat projection model. While Monte Kwinter is a well-known incumbent, he only won by 10 points last time. The fact that Jewish voters have been increasingly moving towards the PC's (in Thornhill provincially & federally and now York Centre federally) could mean that Kwinter is vulnerable here.
    13 09 15
    198.200.89.110
    With Kwinter running again, the liberals will hold this one. This riding, being the closest the Tories have to a pick-up in Toronto, will only swing if Wynne's campaign loses steam and flops. Lean liberal.
    13 05 17 Teddy Boragina
    198.96.35.90
    York Centre has a history of leaning to the right at times. I'm predicting this riding TCTC for the time being, especially given the recent BC example of how the polls can be off and how fast things can change.
    13 02 10 LFC Ottawa
    134.117.196.241
    If Monte runs again, the riding will stick with their MPP. If not, Adler's support base runs through the riding and makes it the only blue seat that is completly in the 416. Waiting to make a call here.



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