Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Ceredigion


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:23:10
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
UK Independence Party
Elwyn Willams
Green Party
Leila Kiersch
Conservative Party
Luke Evetts
Liberal Democrats
Mark Williams
Plaid Cymru
Penri James
Labour Party
Richard Boudier

Incumbent:
Mark Williams
Ceredigion (99.3 %)

Electorate:
Current
52514
2005
53145

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
4297
4410
13075
12831
Other
1104

 


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10 05 04 ridingbyriding
173.32.33.116
Plaid seems down in the polls, not up, while the LibDems are still sitting on their best results ever.
10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
The huge LD surge nationally will safely help this one into the LD column. PC suffering from not being in the TV debate.
Ladbrokes: LD 4/9, PC 13/8.
Wales numbers:
2010 (Apr 20 YouGov): Lab 33, LD 29, Con 23, PC 9
2005 election: Lab 43, Con 21, LD 18, PC 13
09 04 08 Ben
130.64.137.85
I'm not sure why people are so confident that Plaid will regain this seat. Plaid is not exactly popular in Wales at the moment, having yoked itself to the unpopular Labour government in the Assembly. That's going to make it difficult for them to campaign against Labour and against the Lib Dems and Conseravtives everywhere in Wales.
Now, certainly the Lib Dem gain last time was a huge surprise--but that doesn't mean the Lib Dems can't hold this seat. This seat has had a tradition of Liberal support before.
09 03 12 Rhys
92.9.138.160
Plaid will retake Ceredigion from the Liberal Democrats, but it will remain marginal
09 02 16 MRMAN
92.10.94.228
Plaid will retake Ceredigion, but it will still be a pretty tight race beteween Plaid and the Liberals.



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