Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Dunfermline and West Fife


Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 22:03:02
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Conservative Party
Belinda Hacking
Scottish National Party
Joe McCall
UK Independence Party
Otto Inglis
Labour Party
Thomas Docherty
Liberal Democrats
Willie Rennie

Incumbent:
Willie Rennie
Dunfermline & West Fife (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
70373
2005
70775

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
20111
4376
8549
8026
Other
1332

 


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10 04 30 Laird of Camster
94.197.104.219
Willie Rennie seems likely to win, though it will be shown as a gain on the night.
10 04 27 ridingbyriding
173.32.33.116
By-Election or not, I find it a little hard to stomach that any LibDem should lose his or her seat this go.
10 04 27 Boy Waffle
129.215.90.50
With the LibDems surging in Scotland, as in the U.K. as a whole, it seems unlikely that they will lose any seat they already hold, even one which was only won in a by-election.
10 04 11 Rhyddfrydol
92.41.135.249
Willie Rennie has built up a powerful base. The LibDems won the corresponding Holyrood seat, and Mr Rennie should buck the trend of by-election winners losing at the General election.
10 01 23 akava77
82.41.50.175
Tactical voting against Labour, and for the incumbent should see the SNP and Tories squeezed, and the Lib Dems should win here again.
10 01 06 Akava77
82.41.245.11
I don't think the by-election result here was quite as extraordinary as the Glasgow East result (which really is a rock solid Labour seat).
If there's one seat in Scotland that has changed hands in a by-election since 2005, that is likely not to go back to the original party, then I would say Dunfermline & West Fife would be that seat.
The Lib-Dem majority is nearly 2000 here, and it's quite possible that the tactical anti-Labour vote could go to the Lib Dems, possibly increasing their majority. (Also Lib Dems hold the Holyrood seat).
09 03 09 Predictor
99.231.184.167
It is highly questionable whether the stunning by-election upset can be repeated.



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