Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Thirsk and Malton


Prediction Changed
2011-01-23 15:36:29
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Conservative Party
Anne McIntosh
Liberal Democrats
Howard Keal
UK Independence Party
John Boakes
Liberal Party
John Clark
Labour Party
Jonathan Roberts

Incumbent:
Mr John Greenway
Ryedale (73.8 %)
Miss Anne McIntosh
Vale of York (33.6 %)

Electorate:
Current
73534
2005
75501

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
10364
27774
8677
Other
2641

 


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10 04 23 ridingbyriding
198.96.35.219
The UKIP candidate here has passed away
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/england/8638371.stm
And as such the election in this seat will be delayed for some weeks.
10 04 05 Safe Bets
204.9.162.70
Even when they were losing badly overall, the Tories managed to rack up healthy margin in the area. With their numbers ticking up, this would be one of the earliest seats to be declared blue.
10 03 08 Rob- London
193.34.231.235
A large majority, beneficial boundary changes and a traditional and affluent electorate should ensure that this seat stays in the hands of the Conservatives.
The only unknown factor is the lack of an incumbent advantage as MP John Greenway is retiring. This however should have little impact on the result as Conservative candidate Ann McIntosh is well known as the MP for neighbouring (now defunct) constituency Vale of York.



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